King Kauto Kauto Star is confirmed as on target for his attempt at an unprecedented 5th King George with Ruby Walsh on board. Can he do it? In my eyes this is an emphatic 'yes he can'. If he is able to reproduce his Betfair form then he is certain to be very very close indeed. Long Run is entitled to improve, but, as Paul Nicholls suggests today, there must be some doubt that he can find enough. The fact is that he looked beaten a long way from home in the Betfair Chase and that must be a worry for his supporters. The question for Kauto is whether he is over his Haydock exertions. He had a hard race no doubt, but so did Long Run. It must be remembered that he has run in the Betfair every year he has won the King George. The one time he has been beaten was 12 months ago when he bypassed the Haydock race. He was fitter this time but that is not necessarily a negative. I think it is possibly being built up too much. It is hardly as if it has never been done before. I fully understand the arguments as to why it might come too soon but the fact is that Long Run has the same 'problem' to overcome, even if he is considerably younger. I'm delighted that he is taking his chance. I feared after Denman's retirement that he might head straight to the Gold Cup but connections are giving him his shot at glory. He was clearly below par last year and I seriously think that he has a massive chance of making it 5. At the current prices he looks a standout EW bet to nothing at 9/2. He placed last year when he was ill, so 12 months on he must surely be in the 3. The only two I can see beating him are Long Run and Captain Chris, but at this stage he would certainly be my idea of the best bet in the race, and probably the winner too.
He can win it, but its going to be tougher than the Haydock race. He has always been better at Kempton than at Haydock, and if he runs as well as he did on his return he can go and win it. I think it could be such a good renewal of the race that it might be a bit too much for him. I can't wait to find out!
All I hope is that he (and the rest) come through safely. His Betfair win was a remarkable moment and as long as he comes through safe, it doesn't matter what he does. If he wins a 5th King George it would be beyond remarkable.
Whether he is or isn't that little ****er SWC shouldn't be riding Long Run. I've just watched the replay of the 2.00 at Fakenham and for him to pull some story about thinking the horse had swallowed it's tongue is just plain insulting. He quite clearly rode the finish a circuit too early - watch the replay, he looks round after fence 9 and pushes on on Otage De Brion. He looks round again coming off the bend and again just after the 10th fence (which he quite obviously thought was the last). He then goes on to ride a hands and heels finish, clearly under the impression he has the race sewn up. But instead of having the balls to own up to his mistake, he spins some yarn about thinking the horse had swallowed it's tongue: "To be honest, what actually happened is I thought he'd swallowed his tongue," he said. "He landed and just made a hell of a noise. He's had an operation before and we normally have a tongue-tie on him, but didn't today. I knew where I was going. He's one of those horses who's very in and out and one of the problems we've had with him is his breathing." Now where did this supposed drama occur? After the 9th? In whaich case why did he not pull him up immediately? Or after the 10th, after which he proceeded to push the horse out, rather than pull up immediately? Spoilt little daddy's boy who should have the book thrown at him - spineless little twat.
Some interesting comments from Paul Nicholls today that I have just read. "Kauto looks to be our number one, but don't write off Master Minded" and "I don't know if he'll stay, but we'll find out." I though this was Master Minded's race and Kauto was the late substitute and that Master Minded was a definite stayer. It looks increasingly like the 'We might as well run him because there's nothing else for him and we have nothing else to run' argument might have been on the money. This seems by far the least bullish Nicholls has been about Master Minded's King George bid. What do others think?
Kauto Star is the apple of Paul Nicholls eye, He basically said that in his Betfair column saying if he had a preference over who won '' I don't mind really, But maybe Kauto '' If Master Minded stays he will be in with a great shout IMO. But I still think Long Run will be hard to beat, He as 8 lengths to find on Kauto but He will have clearly come on from the run and if Kauto was under the weather at Kempton last December Im expecting a better performance this time round. Lets not forget that Captain Chris as also been entered for the King George and is not to be underestimated. I'd love to see Kauto go on and win his 5th King George but its a big ask, It depends entirely how much the Betfair as took out of him. I cannot back Long Run at odds on as I think its a far better renewal this time round, I think Master Minded is very interesting but I shall decide nearer to the date. Anything can happen from now and till then...
As for Sam Waley Cohen, Hes been given his ban but what stinks is the fact he thought lying would work in his favour. Hes lucky hes an amateur as most top jockeys would have missed the ride, SWC isn't to blame for keeping the ride thats the BHA's fault for keeping such a ridiculous rule in force. Everyone knows SWC as lied, I bet his neck is killing him from all the looking around he was doing. He might not make the weights anyway with the amount of bullshit hes carrying...
Captain Chris is worryingly overlooked. I think he will be a serious player over 3m. I also think Somersby will improve (though I know i might be bordering on lunacy). Master Minded could either be brilliant or well beaten. Kauto the same And then of course Long Run might sweep the lot of them aside! Those stepping up in trip are certainly making it an exciting renewal! R.E Sam Waley-Cohen: I bet Barry Geraghty must feel sick he cant ride such a talented horse. I know Sam was good last year but Barry is riding on top form lately.
Kauto Star was never travelling for McCoy in the King George last year - not a criticism of McCoy but I think the horse is used to a different style of rider. He ran a much better race under Ruby in the Gold Cup (which for me has never been his optimum race - he was basically oustayed by Long Run and Denman and I think the 3m 2.5f at Cheltenham has always stretched him). I think everyone would then agree it was a mistake to go to Punchestown. For me he looked as good as ever at Haydock - travelled supremely well, jumped immaculately and basically his speed and fencing took him clear. He had to dig deep to get home but I think he has time to recover and hope Nicholls can get him as fit again for Kempton. If he does, Long Run will have all on to reverse the form. I really can't imagine anything else getting into it as their jumping will be under too much pressure and Master Minded will run out of gas at the 3rd last.
Absolutely agree with those putting forward Captain Chris. As I have said previously I am a huge fan of the horse and think he has been crying out for this trip. The track will suit ideally and with more improvement seemingly certain to come up in trip he must be a danger to all. The concern is his preparation. His participation must be slightly in doubt but more so is that I think he is the type to benefit from a recent run. He often appears rusty and then warms to his task. For this reason I thought the Peterborough plan was a good one. He is still capable of running a huge race but my confidence is slightly tempered given his far from ideal preparation. I would still put him forward as an EW bet on the day, if he turns up in good order, and with the ground not too soft. I can't have Master Minded staying, and I doubt anything else has the ability to get involved, therefore Kauto is a good EW bet now, because he is sure to shorten, and Captain Chris will be on the day, if he is there in good order. Really looking forward to the race. I booked my ticket today, and, with just 2 weeks remaining the anticipation is certainly building. Who gives a damn about this Christmas bollocks when it just delays the real festive highlight!
I was most disappointed with Sam Waley-Cohen today. I have always defended him in the face of criticism from some quarters but his actions this afternoon have hardly done him any favours. The mistake that he made, whilst careless, is forgiveable. However, the way that he has blatantly lied in the aftermath is despicable. It is apparent to anybody watching that his apparent 'excuse' is obviously not the case. If he is telling the truth then even more serious questions of animal welfare need to be asked. Why, if he thought the horse had swallowed its tongue, was he riding a finish? I am thoroughly disappointed by the whole episode because I have always thought him to better than what he showed today. A case like this is not easy to forgive and forget, given its calculated nature. He is fortunate to be riding at all but I doubt somewhat that he will be receiving a 'hero's welcome' should he return triumphant to the winners enclosure at Kempton on Boxing Day. I hope Kauto Star puts him in his place. Come on Kauto!
I haven't actually had the chance to watch Sam Waley-Cohen's race yesterday, but I think it's a real shame if it's as blatant as you're making it sound. I couldn't agree more TopClass - Barry Geraghty is riding excellently at the moment and would be a big improvement to Long Runs chances - I think it's probably good for the Kauto Star camp that Waley Choen can ride - without him LR would probably have BG or AP, and either would have been a big boost I think. I think it's still Long Runs race to loose - he should be massively improved from the Betfair, where he didn't even nearly run as well as he showed last year. For me if anyone can take him on, it's got to be Kauto, but I can't help but think that he'll have to improve again on the Betfair to beat Long Run this time. I certainly hope he does. I was a big ante-post fan of Captain Chris, but he's hardly had the dream start to the season. We'll see.
If Kauto jumps and dictates from the front like he did in the Betfair he'll beat Long Run. Long Run might not have been "Gold Cup fit" and is obviously entitled to come on for the run but that doesn't excuse how he jumps under pressure. Everytime Kauto put in a big jump in front of Long Run it seemed to force a mistake. Long Run I would say is a banker for the Gold Cup but is definitely not so in the King George!! I actually think Long Run was fitter than NH is letting on he certainly looked fit enough and I certainly don't think he was 8 lengths inferior just because he wasn't fit!!
[IMH]http://www.bbc.co.uk/606/2/refresh/images/smileys/f_tomato.gif[/IMG] [IMH]http://www.bbc.co.uk/606/2/refresh/images/smileys/f_run.gif[/IMG] Try copying and pasting this but change the "H" to a "G" first.
That was an amazing piece of film at Fakenham, where S.W.C.missed the fence. The way he was looking around didn't hint at a horse with problems, I got the feeling he was pretty confident and was on the lookout for possible challengers. Did the horse have tongue troubles? Stewards thought not. They banned him. If they are right and S.W.C. is fibbing, then what went wrong? He seemed close in on approaching the fence, maybe he didn't have his mind on the job, and the horse made the decision at the last moment, leaving S.W.C. with no option but to wear it on the chin. His excuse does ring a bit hollow though. Interesting thought, what if he's telling the truth? Not only goes he cop a ban, but his creditability is shot to pieces. How unfair would that be?
Cyc he was riding a finish. He thought they were at the end of the race, didn't realise they had another circuit to run. He looked round after the fence at the top of the hill, then again coming round the bend, and was shaking his mount up to ride a finish. He clearly rode towards the finish line (to the left of the "missed" fence) thinking the race was over. It's so obvious yet he hasn't got the balls to admit it.
8 stand their ground for the King George and for me it is one of the best renewals I can remember. Only Golan Way can be dismissed I think, the remainder I think all have solid claims. Captain Chris each way so long as 8 go to post....
The closer we get to the big day the more Im starting to fancy Master Minded, I have never ever dismissed this horse in any company on any ground or at any distance he seems to suprise us all the time. From his unbelievable 2008 Champion Chase win to The Melling Chase where he was clearly being layed for fun after his dissapointing run at Cheltenham as he went off at odds of 11/2 the absolute bet of the year last season. The weather reports suggest the ground will probably show up Good to Soft, Good in places which is ideal for Master Minded, Kempton is one of the better tracks around the country and is a nice flat track so if Master Minded is going to get 3 miles anywhere it will be Kempton. Back to the Melling Chase, Ruby had Him completely switched off they went a decent gallop and he was jumping beautifully, If Daryl can do the same and get him into a rhythm I really fancy his chances. We know he is an unknown over 3 miles but like I've said I don't underestimate anything this horse can do. Of the rest, Long Run will be a tough nut to crack if SWC can get him jumping fluently, He still as to find 8 lengths with Kauto, I dont care what Nicky Henderson says theres noway Long Run was half fit on the day of the Betfair, His jumping falls to pieces under pressure and IMO this is a far better renewal than last year with an obviously better horse this year in Kauto, Master Minded and Captain Chris who is a classy horse who looks like He'll get the 3 miles easily... Fascinating renewal
I can't find a video thread so I'll post this on here if that's alright....I came across it earlier while looking for something else...it's very interesting. You might have seen it already on ATR. There are some clips of Long Run and Master Minded too, running in France. Kauto Star - before he was famous http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x43xv4Kezig&feature=related Did I hear that right...Long Run winning a Grade 1 hurdle aged just three?!!
