Just seen the crowd figures for the Epsom meeting - only 22000 in attendance yesterday. That is shocking. Also interesting to hear that The Lion In Winter was covered in dead ringworm in the paddock.
I personally feel that Lambourn will fall firmly into his sire Austarlias category. Thats being a very solid racehorse but not a superstar by any means. What the horse might do is become a very very good Gold Cup horse ala Yeats. I think you have to mark up Tennessee Stud from yesterday, whilst the winner may have found more if challenged, TS made up a significant amount of ground.
After bottling it in the Derby with Ruling Court, Charlie Appleby is taking him to Royal Ascot instead. Having said he was confident the horse would stay the Derby trip he has now stated they are going for the St James Palace Stakes. Having just hel on from a poorly ridden Field Of Gold in the 2000 Guineas where Shoemark watched William Buick stoking up and was overconfident that he had him covered and hung onto the grey for a bit longer. Matt Chapman said to John Gosden in the aftermath that both jockeys asked their mounts at the same time but anyone with an eye could see he was talking bollocks. Bookies go Field Of Gold 11/10 and Ruling Court 3/1 and I expect the former will reverse the Guineas form. Henri Matisse is also in the mix this time. Where does defeat leave Ruling Court then? Personally I would have taken him to the Eclipse, where the extra distance might help him confirm Guineas form with current Eclipse Fav Field Of Gold. I felt Ruling Court was already badly placed as a 2YO when tackling the Acomb Stakes at York. 7F at York is more of a speed test and he looked to lack gears that day. Appleby seems to be running scared now having been bullish in the lead up to Epsom.
That he was taking him up as a triple crown winner, the SJP seems a ridiculous move... I think Coolmore have their number
If they are serious about winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a European horse then they need to do it properly. They sent their wonder horse for a spin on the kitty litter at Southwell as a preparation and duly failed last year. They need to send their contender over to the States for one of the recognised dirt trials. Then they will know if their horse is a contender or an also-ran before the day of the race. If it does not take to dirt then go home. If it gets beat out of sight by the locals then go home.
I would expect Lambourn to be rated 120 after the Derby. Lazy Griff on 114 and Tennessee Stud 112. I suspect the 2nd and third may pan out a couple of pounds shorter in reality than the figure they are given. Pride Of Arras ran about five stone below his rating in the Derby and Damysus was even worse. Clearly didn't run their races but they were almost certainly overrated for the runs in the Dante. Tmeform gave Pride Of Arras 119p for the Dante and rated The Lion In Winter 118+ after the race, yet both stank the place out at Epsom. They had said it was unlikely the former would not act at Epsom, based on his relations. There seems a childlike faith that the trials will be the same standard every year but it is clear the quality will vary from year to year. Johnny Murtagh said in the build up that he was tipping Pride Of Arras because the Dante is always the best trial. There were six runners from this year's Dante in the Derby and they finished:- 11th 12th 14th 16th 17th 18th Of the 18 runner field. I suppose they all just had an off day at the same time. Wonder what the official handicapper will make of it?
God knows what the handicapper will make of it, but I know what I make of it. A good stayer won in a decent time from a bad field. The favourite beaten 15 lengths and a Dante winner beaten 50 lengths. That says it all!
The Official Handicapper will have to take into account a number of factors. Firstly, he is unlikely to dramatically re-assess any of the also-rans. Pride Of Arras (OR 115) and Damysus (111) clearly did not handle the track, finishing the last two home. The favourite Delacroix (116) clearly did not give his running. Secondly, since all those horses ran well on their last appearance, he will not drop their ratings based on one bad performance. He will also have to take account of the Oaks and the Coronation Cup, run over the same course and distance the day before on, arguably, slightly easier ground. The Derby winner won in a time 0.41 seconds faster than the Oaks winner but 2.37 seconds slower than the Coronation Cup winner. As far as the running of these races is concerned, both the Derby and the Oaks were very similar in that the first two home were in the first three the entire race and none of the held-up horses really got involved. I expect that Jan Brueghel (117) will see his rating raised for victory over Calandagan (124) as the handicapper can only base his changes on the actual result, not any opinion on how the race was run or the actions of the jockeys; the runner-up looks like a bit of a bottler. The older horses carried the same weight as the three year olds in both the Classics. So in making an assessment, he should also factor in what is effectively weight for age. The current weight for age scale here gives the three year olds a 15lb allowance from their elders. Also, of course, the fillies would have received a sex allowance against the colts. As Lambourn started the Derby with a rating of 109, Lazy Griff rated 105 and late finisher Tennessee Stud rated 109, it is difficult to see how Lambourn would get raised to 120 if the Oaks winner Minnie Hauk (rated 100) and runner-up Whirl (rated 110, beaten a neck) were not similarly raised. The top rated runner prior to the Derby was The Lion In Winter (117), who I think will be ignored; and in the Oaks Desert Flower (117) ran four lengths third, possibly not handling the track. If Desert Flower were taken as a yardstick and deemed to have run to 117 then Minnie Hauk would be rated at least 123. We will know on Tuesday when the revised ratings are published by the BHA.
The official ratings are in and Lambourn is rated 120 as I had predicted would be likely. Lazy Griff is on 114 and Tennessee Stud 112, again as I had predicted as their new ratings. The new ratings for Lambourn and Tennessee Stud were actually available when you made your post yesterday. They are Irish trained horses and as such are assessed by the Irish Handicapper, who it seems doesn't need the extra day the British Handicapper does. For future reference Irish official ratings can be found here:- https://www.hri-ras.ie/full-flat-ratings
Ps Minnie Hauk went up to 114, a raise of 14 lbs. It is clear that Desert Flower ran nowhere near her Guineas mark. Hated track and ground according to trainer.
Thats where the difference is between Coolmore and Godolphin .. due diligence.. DF had never been around a bend... Coolmore lake their horses to the tighest track Chester which essentially forces the hoses to change their legs and quicken or indeed stay.
Very interesting what Stuart Williams says on that Luck On Sunday video I posted above - The Lion In Winter was absolutely covered in dead ringworm and that must have knocked him back in his preparation for the classics. I wouldn't take his runs so far this season at face value.
I asked myself the same question and the only answer I could come up with was that you only have 1 chance to win an Epsom Derby. With hindsight they may have been better waiting for the 2nd half of the season with him. Then again, they've forgotten more about horses than I will ever know.
Well done on second guessing the handicappers accurately. Astonishingly, the British and Irish handicappers do actually consult on these things. Where are Lambourn and Tennessee Stud trained? So their ratings are published by Horseracing Ireland. If you search for either horse on the British Horseracing Authority website you will not find them. Where is Lazy Griff trained? Lazy Griff can be found on the BHA website. Interesting that The Lion In Winter has seen his rating dropped as the convention is to not drop a horse’s rating based on one bad performance, so clearly his Dante run was deemed a bad performance as well. Pride Of Arras remains on 115 and Damysus remains on 111 despite being the last two home at Epsom as they both earned those ratings in the Dante.
