Thursday's Meetings Lingfield A/W 8 Races 11:58-3:39p.m. Newbury N/H 6 Races 1:15-3:55p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m. Catterick Abandoned Clonmel Abandoned Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Lingfield 1.58 Carbine Harvester at 2/1 Fav is looking for a 3 timer but he faces some stiff opposition and I would be inclined to oppose him at those odds Firstly there is Sergio Parisse who not only has been running at a higher level but has run with credit. LTO was odds on fav and going well when hampered. Before that he was fav and won despite running green. On his only other run he was an eyecatcher on debut. First run since wind op. Provided he is ready to go after an absence of 197 days, he should be very difficult to beat But he isn't the only one who might finish in front of the fav Dream Voyage was thought to be good enough to take on Lake Victoria in a G3 but ducked at the start and dropped out quickly over 1f out having made up ground to be prominent. She won her previous race and in her only other race, a Class2, ran green on debut but kept on well to get 3rd btn 1½l Brosay won a Class 4 last time out, in a faster time than Carbine harvester, whist carrying 10lb more (5lb more tomorrow) Camera Shy was odds on in a G3 in Italy but but missed the break and had to be snatched up and eased when challenging There is enough there to make me oppose the fav
Ok let me try today. Lingfield This January by draw Draw Runners Winners Win S/R PRB 1 9 0 0 39.37 2 9 0 0 36.99 3 9 0 0 57.8 4 9 1 11.11 36.93 5 9 2 22.22 62.1 6 9 1 11.11 57.25 7 9 3 33.33 66.58 8 9 0 0 29.23 9 6 2 33.33 53.01 10 3 0 0 85.19 The averages for January for the last five years are Stall 1,2,3 - 13% each but what is interesting is if you switch it to where the going is slower than usual (so harrowed deeper due to the weather) Stall 1 - 6% Stall 2 - 4.5% Stall 3 - 13% So does this mean we are wanting to avoid the inside rail? Let's find out further today. 11:58 - Knockbrex and Vibrato are likely pace angles, with Vibrato the more consistent in running style. So does this mean he will have to cross over onto the rail? Hitched and Epsom Faithfull are both interesting with good Lingfield form. Epsom Faithfull has the better form at the trip of the two, and could be an interesting bet. 12:28 - Paradoxical has stall 2, which makes this interesting. Good course form of Lost In Time is in stall 1 too. This could test the hypothesis!! Forge Valley Lad is interesting, drawn wider, has course, distance and class form. He has been running OK recently too and with luck in running he may be finishing well down the outside here. 12:58 - small field race with the favourite drawn widest of the four. Move on. 13:28 - Maiden stakes. Move on. 13:58 - Decent sized field, with two with recent winning form in stalls 8 and 9. I don't like betting in these ex-nursery races. 14:32 - A race with a lack of pace. This looks really interesting on paper due to this. Starshiba won nicely last time, is drawn wide and has the held up running style. What isn't to like? Surprised he isn't the favourite here. 15:07 - Another decent sized field. This looks set to be run at a more predictable pace, and that is really useful for judging the potential of the field. Laurentia in this has form with the earlier selection Forge Valley Lad, when Laurentia was held up at rear in a race won by Bearaway. The interesting thing that day was that Laurentia clocked the fastest furlong of the race with a 11.18 second furlong between 3 and 2 furlongs from home. This suggests that the race wasn't run to suit the horse and that the pace shown was not utilised to the best effect. Perhaps he could do that today! 15:39 - Another decent field size. Again it should be run at a fairly decent pace, with Danehill Star and Major Major two pace angles. Send In The Clouds is interesting here. Stepped up to 1m6 on his return from a break, he didn't get involved. He has then been off a year. He now comes back down to a more suitable trip, where he has a 1 from 3 record (with another place). He has won in this class multiple times and he has a decent course run in the book. One to watch in the market, shame we don't have the dead 8 runners. So I am going Epsom Faithfull 1pt @ 7/2 Forge Valley Lad 1pt @ 9/2 Starshiba 1pt @ 9/4 Laurentia 0.5pt EW @ 20/1 and a little yankee on them all EW
Crossbar hit. Should have done the Rev Forecast. Again though, it was the horse challenging wider that went away. The horses on the rail really struggled.
My goodness, splendid data stuff today, really hope a few (or more) winners transpire from all this hard work! Have to keep it very simple as I cannot find anything I really fancy in the UK racecourses still operating today, so I'll have a go at the French racing again. Not very loyal, I'm afraid (again!): .................... 17:15 Lyon La Soie - Marguns e/w Stakes event for 5YOs+ over a distant just short of 1m1f on the Polytrack surface- Anodin mare (Damsire: High Chaparral) certainly has more consistent form than many in this affair. Runs mostly at this venue, as were her wins. Thomas Trullier on board for the Mme. Isabelle Juteau stable. 13/2 (Bet365/Wm.Hill) best price early-doors, on the ATR site.
A tiny profit for the day, but I feel a tad unlucky!! The EW shot finished well but not close enough in the end and I think Callum Shepherd might want another go on Starshiba who flattered when making an effort on the rail. Good interest in the afternoon. Now will the rail run dead at Chelmsford tonight?
