Daily Racing Thread Friday 12th. May 2023

Friday's Meetings

Chester
Flat 7 Races 1:30-4:55p.m.
Market Rasen
N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:08p.m.
Ascot
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m.
Kilbeggan(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:00-8:30p.m.
Nottingham(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:15-8:40p.m.
Ripon(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:25-8:45p.m.
Wolverhampton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:30-9:00p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

Re. my post #4 on Wednesday, 10th May, on the Chester Cup, there is a general slight drop in the odds for Metier, with the best price now (Thursday, 11th May) being 10/1 with SkyBet (from the 11/1 on Wednesday).

 

15.35 Ascot. Some lovely named fillies

 

Now best priced 7/1 Swanny. Slight fancy for Calling The Wind ew 8/1 with B365

 

Medieval Gold has a mouth watering pedigree for this 1m 4f 63y Boodles Darley Maiden Stakes. 4/1 best price available at present. Best to watch the market once they have paraded to get an idea of whether he's been prepped for this

 

Nottingham 840
Somewhere secret took 33s ew last night bet fred still have this showing but generally 14s . Still looks to big and the crookies dont know what to do for the best 10s ,11s 14s, 18s 33s all available .

 

Chester Cup

I normally bring my draw bias stats out for the Victoria Cup, but I am starting early this year.

The Chester Cup is a bumper with stalls, lets get that stated first, but unlike a bumper, the positions at the start are dictated and they even play a part in the outcome of this 2 mile 2 furlong race.

So since 2010


The blue shows number of winners of the race, showing that stalls 2 and 11 have 2 wins each. The grey shows the expected number of winners give market expectation (shorter the price, the more likely the winner), the largest range between these two bars is stall 11 which exceeds expectation, the other stalls that have done this are stall 2, 6, 9, 10 & 14.

So what does this mean? It means that you can win from wider draws, and if you do, you normally win at decent enough prices to exceed market expectations, but 7 of the 12 winners were drawn stall 6 or below. Emiyn in Stall 1 could make all, I just hope Rajinsky doesn't come across from stall 5 and pester for the early lead.



Now what I find more interesting is looking at the Percentage of Runners Beaten numbers, which are plotted as the line (secondary axis). This shows that if you are drawn low (stalls 1 to 4) you are more likely to beat more runners home, with stall 1 being the exception. Stall 1 may have the Epsom Derby issue, in that you can get trapped by the rail in behind runners (the winner made all).

So what am I trying to say? God knows.


However, what I think is that backing stall 11 would be interesting, but I can't have the horse at all. So I am going to go for the forecasts and tricasts from stalls 1, 2, 3 & 4, with

 

3.35 Ascot-Shagpyle @ 4-1 [Bet 365]

Despite the name she could be a smooth prospect

 

I've got these draw bias stats as well!!! However, was a bit disappointed to see the field size, re the race, this year. Quite a bit short of the maximum declared yesterday - 23 when 29 could have gone to post.

Plus, it wouldn't be much of a shock if by tomorrow afternoon if this number of 23 was reduced even further...

 

All that analysis to conclude backing stalls 1,2,3&4 at Chester....staggering!

 

Chester fancies.

Wobwobwob
Baryshnikov
Mujtaba
Metier
Medieval Gold
Greystoke
Bellatrixsa

I think BELLATRIXSA is a knocking good price in the last today. Only 4lb higher than when winning this race last year and has the king of the Roodeye in the saddle again. My slight concerns are that Venetia has two in the race any you wouldnt put it past her and the fact is that Bellatrixsa possibly arrives not quite in the same nick as last year. Fingers crossed.

 

Could be a hairy race

 

What a great ride by Hollie Doyle. She set her alight 5-6f out and opened up a lead with everyone else having to scrub along when they didn't want to. Then 300m out Ryan Mooore joined her and Doyle drove her mount into a comfortable 1/2 length win.

 

I was expecting more soft furnishing quips.
The connections must hope she sweeps up.

 

If only the odds were double carpet

 

Yes Swanny

 

To a nicety, and well done Stick too

 

If Stick & Swanny pick the same horse, in my opinion your daft not to back it

 

Ran 4th most of the way then hoovered 'em up

 

Hahahaha