Friday's Meetings Salisbury Flat 9 Races 12:20-4:25p.m. Killarney Flat 8 Races 1:00-4:45p.m. York Flat 7 Races 1:45-4:50p.m. Newton Abbot(E) N/H 9 Races 3:50-7:55p.m. Killlbegan(E) N/H 8 Races 4:00-7:45p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 9 Races 4:30-8:35p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
1:55 Spanish Colt @6/1 This nursery is one of those races where I think one horse makes the market. Breckland is that horse and I thought at 7/4 and shorter last night he had to be taken on. He won a nursery last time out, and he is well in under a penalty, so why take him on? That race was mediocre and the form of those in behind suggests that it didn’t need much of an effort to win. The time was slow and I think Breckland was suited by the surface and his racing style. He did it very well but today he’s up against much better horses and on turf. Helmet is a sire that doesn’t get a high percentage of winners on turf when it is good to soft or soft (10%) and I don’t think conditions today will suit him as much as the last race. Who with? I really like Spanish Colt after his nursery debut where he wasn’t knocked about too much. He ran on nicely enough without looking a likely winner and now goes on ground with more cut and Frankel is a positive sire for that going. I thought he had an action that suggested this sort of ground and off top weight he is the joint best horse in the race. I thought that out of these he should be shorter and as such the 6/1 looked good value.
I think ESCAPE ROUTE 20/1 is a bit of value in the Gimcrack today. I like the Tactical form and although he has a couple of lengths to find with Yazaman he was doing his best work at the finish and looked to me to have improvement in him. The difference in the reopposing horses odds today is quite stark.
Away from York it looks like the FOB bandwagon could roll on with 4 timer. I will be backing these so the warning has gone out. Good luck all that play today.
I think i'm going to risk a bit ew on Lauded 16/1 in this. I just can't understand why its four times the price of Yazaman. Like you i think the odds they've been priced up at today stand out a mile and i'd much rather play something at bigger odds ew than risk a win bet on those i feel are too short at the top of the market. Good luck with yours
Huge confidence around Malton in Ubettabelieveit.... the step up in trip expected to bring even further improvement.... lump on!!!! BTW very dry night here and the wind is a warm one and blowing hard.... it'll be drying out all the time..
Not a particularly inspiring card at York today. Atzini seems to have some live chances so an EW treble on the following will be my bet. NAYEF ROAD 11/4. although his record at York is not good it is a front runners track. If Atzini gets the fractions right he should win. BROOMY LAW 7/1 This one was backed from 14/1 to half those odds on debut, but his race was lost by a slow start finished his race off and should have shaken off the greenness which he showed WALIYAK 7/2 5lb better off with Chamade and likely to be better suited to York than Goodwood
Telly avoiders 145 Kings Caper 215 Dashing Willoughby 245 Minzaal 315 Battaash 345 Tawleed Good luck all
It is just as well there is no crowd at York so far as other than watching the two favourites win the big races on the first two days, there has not been much else to cheer. The Lonsdale Cup poses a bit of a conundrum. My jinx jockey is quite naturally on Enbihaar as he is retained by the owner but she steps up to two miles here for the first time; however, her only win against the boys was a novice event two years ago. The clear form choice here is NAYEF ROAD, who had a remote view of superstar Stradivarius in the Gold Cup (Withhold behind) but was considerably closer over this trip in the Goodwood Cup (Who Dares Wins and Eagles By Day behind). The key issue here may be the potential battle for the lead with Withhold (behind Dashing Willoughby at Sandown) as the Johnston colt has shown a tendency to be keen and Dashing Willoughby has also made the running in the past. The Friday hot-pot Battaash should win the Nunthorpe, with his ability to beat himself probably the biggest threat to victory. No doubt there will be those betting on him breaking speed records but with the under-hoof conditions not lightning fast, I do not see the stopwatch being required. The two three year olds look the most likely for the places having collected group races last time and both having more potential to improve than the older horses who have either had a rear view of Battaash before or are not in the same class. In the Gimcrack, Yazaman has got a worse case of seconditis than me; and several of the field have potential rather than form so I will give it a miss (Minzaal is adjusted rated 108P by Timeform). In the supporting races there are a couple that owe me money but I know that York handicaps are not the place to try and recover it.
An interesting Gimcrack today and very open I feel. Perhaps not the highest quality because you can pick holes in several of the races where today's participants bring their form from. I was on Yazaman last time but he never travelled as well as you would have expected him to. In the end Supremacy went away at the front and although Yazaman did keep on, the was four lengths behind at the finish. Top on official ratings here but his three seconds after a winning start indicate to me that others are ripe for passing him now. Tactical is favourite for the Prix Morny and he has ties with some of the field today. My issue is that the July Stakes at Newmarket is working out terribly and the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot has seen some winners but only Tactical himself, two Novice winners and a Maiden winner. To be frank it looks quite weak form in both races. Mohawk King and Minzaal met on their debuts and the Hannon horse won, with Burrows' colt only 4th that day. The latter horse has since won well and some pundits feel he will reverse the form now, with the betting more than indicating as much with Minzaal 5/2 and Mohawk King 8/1. Win or lose I must be against Minzaal at the odds today because he is priced as if he has already demonstrated superior form to the rest of the field and that is not yet the case. Minzaal was impressive last time but he was 1/2 Fav for a Class 5 Novice race and his official rating of 92 is a stone lower that Yazaman, so while he is unexposed, he is facing a very different challenge today. I saw Simon Rowlands on ATR putting up Mystery Smiles here and the Balding horse may well build on his Chester win last time but the 87 rated Fools Rush In was 16th of 19 runners in the sales race yesterday, beaten more than 17 lengths and he was only a length and a half behind Minzaal previously. Like Minzaal, Mystery Smile is rated 92 on OR and needs quite a big jump forward. Watching him again at Chester I didn't quite see enough to buy into it. Lauded has some encouraging form but like Yazaman he was no match for Supremacy at Goodwood. After being initially impressed by Supremacy, I am now worried that he perhaps didn't beat as much as first thought. I gave the nod to Ubettabelieveit. The Tinkler horse was 4th on debut but stormed to success on his second start. He then stepped up to Listed company and won with a fair bit in hand. The form of that race doesn't look good in retrospect but the runner up ran in Group 3 and Group 2 company next time and one of the others also stepped up to Group 3. More importantly it was the ease with which Ubettabelieveit travelled throughout that Listed win that impressed me and he looked as if he was ready for the step up to 6F now. Improving and untried at this trip the nature of the York course should suit and his official rating of 103 is a buffer on some of the others who are perhaps more fancied. At 7/1 I felt he was the value option here. Devilwala takes a huge step up in class but interesting that Archie Watson sends him here. 1/1 thus far, he may run well at 16/1 EW 4 places. 2.45 York Ubettabelieveit 7/1
The going is the key to their chances today, I fear it will be too soft for at least one of them. Be interesting to see what the going description is after the first
Ran well but most importantly got the horse I didn’t like correct. That Godolphin horse was very impressive.
Regretting not doing an acca on Crowley today! still think he can win the next 4 though so have had a little bet at 50-1
Breckland was theoretically 9 lbs well in today, running off 67 when his mark is due to go up to 76 soon. The punters were not buying into that though, given that he was 4/1 and Soft Whisper 6/5 Fav. The Godolphin horse was short despite Cloudbridge, who beat him easily last time, flopping when warm favourite the other day. Watching Breckland there off 67, you would worry for him off 76 next time.
