Some are saying as low as 38 points are needed this season to stay up but I reckon 41-42 is more realistic. there’s quite a few teams bunched and I expect Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa to drop. I’d be happy with that.
40 has only been required once in 20+ years, last year you only needed 34 to stay up, 38 will easily be enough.
I think 38 is about right. West Ham are the only team to have ever been relegated with 40 points, aren't they ?
I think a maximum of 36 points and probably as low as 33. Currently 6 teams are close to, or below a point a game, there is no way all 6 will much improve on that, at least three of them will do worse. It is possible that a safe mid table team like us go on a 10 game really bad streak, ala Bournemouth. but very, very unlikely. It is likely that the bottom 3 will come from the current bottom 6 or 7, and will become fairly certain in 3 or 4 games time.
I think the bottom three are down honestly. Villa are the absolute definition of a one man team, if Grealish can't set up or score a goal they look ****tastic.
I was going to chip in with something similar. Norwich aren't getting above mid 30's at best. Bournemouth may improve and get to 38 but Villa I can't see getting over a point per game. All it takes is for one of the teams just above them to go through a bad run (and some of them surely will) and they'll struggle to get to that sort of figure themselves. I reckon a team will go down with 36 points and 38 is safety.
Watford beating Villa and Bournemouth beating Brighton. Doesn't change anything. The points for survival is based of 38 games played by each team.