JB has asked me to read the OP and I've read it..
There are too many assumptions for this to be anything other than a bit of fun. It cannot be remotely be taken seriously and those who do are even more silly than they think they are. What do they say "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing..."?
The idea that if a team drops 7 points from 3 "easy" matches they are already out of the title race is beyond farcical. It makes so many assumptions. First that the team in question will carry on the same form. Two, that the 3 teams classified as easy were the same as last season and made no improvements. On this basis Leicester was classified as "supereasy" at the start of last season, yet they ended up as champions and were extremely hard to beat.
Without the use of stats or the Alternative table, common sense tells us that no club is out of any race after 3 matches, IRRESPECTIVE of how easy these matches are supposed to be.