12 players left
2 known mafia, Zingy and either AFC or ACS
1 know Vampire - Chaos
1 known arsonist - ACS or AFC
1 unknown mafia recruit
Which leaves 7 town (including the executioner)
If we allow Chaos to live tonight he bites and makes the vampire team 2, we kill one of the mafia, which leaves them at 2, and they'll kill one of us making 6. The arsonist will douse someone which could leave us at 5 vs 2 mafia vs 2 vampire - with one of each unknown
If we allow AFC / ACS as the Don and Zingy to live, and kill the Vampire, tonight they kill a town member and the mafia team remains as 3, we'll go down to 6 with their kill and maybe 5 with the arsonist douse. So we could end up 3 (1 unknown) Mafia vs 5 town vs 0 Vampires.
However, if the arsonist has any sense he'll douse one of the known mafia / vampire remaining, so we should remain at 6.
So imo the arsonist should live, and we should decide whether to take out known mafia - Zingy or Chaos