Pointless analysis or maybe not

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C

carrowcanario

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2011
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Second in the league having thrown away a chance to go top and stamp our authority on the league. Newcastle top but only 1 point ahead so all is not lost. If only we hadn’t snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Newcastle and not switched off for 20 minutes against Fulham then we could have been top in a much more convincing position. At the start of the season I would have been more than happy with our current position, however I continue to maintain doubts about AN and the character of the team. Do we have the bottle to win the league, I doubt it.


6/8 Blackburn 1 (21st) Norwich 4

13/8 Norwich 0 Sheffield Wed 0 (7th)

16/8 Norwich 1 Bristol City 0 (6th)

21/8 Ipswich 1 (12th) Norwich 1

27/8 Birmingham 3 (5th) Norwich 0

10/9 Cardiff 2 (23st) Norwich 3

13/9 Norwich 2 Wigan 1 (22nd)

17/9 Nottingham Forrest 1 (16th) Norwich 2

24/9 Norwich 3 Burton Albion 1 (18th)

28/9 Newcastle 4 (1st) Norwich 3

1/10 Wolves 1 (15th) Norwich 2

15/10 Norwich 3 Rotherham 1 (24th)

18/10 Fulham 2 (11th) Norwich 2

The highest placed team we’ve beat is Bristol in 6th.

Of the 13 games we’ve played 6 are in the top half of the league. Of these we’ve won 1, drew 3 and lost 2.

We’ve played 3 teams in, the top 6 (lost 2, won 1), so against what would appear to be our main competitors we are not doing particularly well in potential 6 pointer games

We’ve beat all of the 7 teams we’ve played in the bottom half of the table.

At the moment it looks like we’re going to beat teams in the lower half of the table but struggle against teams in the top 6.

The next 3 Championship game are against Preston (19th), Leeds (13th) & Brighton (3rd), so looking at past performance I would expect 6 or 7 points. December & January fixtures look particularly difficult and for me we never seem to get good results over Christmas.
 
carrowcanario said:
Second in the league having thrown away a chance to go top and stamp our authority on the league. Newcastle top but only 1 point ahead so all is not lost. If only we hadn’t snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Newcastle and not switched off for 20 minutes against Fulham then we could have been top in a much more convincing position. At the start of the season I would have been more than happy with our current position, however I continue to maintain doubts about AN and the character of the team. Do we have the bottle to win the league, I doubt it.


6/8 Blackburn 1 (21st) Norwich 4

13/8 Norwich 0 Sheffield Wed 0 (7th)

16/8 Norwich 1 Bristol City 0 (6th)

21/8 Ipswich 1 (12th) Norwich 1

27/8 Birmingham 3 (5th) Norwich 0

10/9 Cardiff 2 (23st) Norwich 3

13/9 Norwich 2 Wigan 1 (22nd)

17/9 Nottingham Forrest 1 (16th) Norwich 2

24/9 Norwich 3 Burton Albion 1 (18th)

28/9 Newcastle 4 (1st) Norwich 3

1/10 Wolves 1 (15th) Norwich 2

15/10 Norwich 3 Rotherham 1 (24th)

18/10 Fulham 2 (11th) Norwich 2

The highest placed team we’ve beat is Bristol in 6th.

Of the 13 games we’ve played 6 are in the top half of the league. Of these we’ve won 1, drew 3 and lost 2.

We’ve played 3 teams in, the top 6 (lost 2, won 1), so against what would appear to be our main competitors we are not doing particularly well in potential 6 pointer games

We’ve beat all of the 7 teams we’ve played in the bottom half of the table.

At the moment it looks like we’re going to beat teams in the lower half of the table but struggle against teams in the top 6.

The next 3 Championship game are against Preston (19th), Leeds (13th) & Brighton (3rd), so looking at past performance I would expect 6 or 7 points. December & January fixtures look particularly difficult and for me we never seem to get good results over Christmas.
Click to expand...
why are you persisting with these meaningless figures? They have no relation tO the future. Were Man U fans posting similar predictions of doom after we beat them last season/
 
After reading your comments on this and other threads I have come to the conclusion that you are a very angry person, this from one of our more jovial posters.
 
So now 4th in the league and 4 points off the top. Another uninspiring, lack-lustre performance against the type of team we should be beating at home, if we’re going to get promoted. Having said that today is the first time we’ve lost at home this season, so hopefully this is a blip rather than the start of a slow steady decline to mid-table mediocrity.

6/8 Blackburn 1 (22nd) Norwich 4
13/8 Norwich 0 Sheffield Wed 0 (5th)
16/8 Norwich 1 Bristol City 0 (6th)
21/8 Ipswich 1 (17th) Norwich 1
27/8 Birmingham 3 (7th) Norwich 0
10/9 Norwich 3 Cardiff 2 (20th)
13/9 Norwich 2 Wigan 1 (23rd)
17/9 Nottingham Forrest 1 (19th) Norwich 2
24/9 Norwich 3 Burton Albion 1 (15th)
28/9 Newcastle 4 (1st) Norwich 3
1/10 Wolves 1 (18th) Norwich 2
15/10 Norwich 3 Rotherham 1 (24th)
18/10 Fulham 2 (14th) Norwich 2
22/10 Norwich 0 Preston (9th)

The highest placed team we’ve beat is Bristol in 6th. The lowest placed team we've lost to is Birmingham in 7th.

We’ve played 7 home games, winning 5, drawing 1 & losing 1, and 7 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 & losing 2. So perhaps not surprisingly our home record is better than our away record.

Of the 14 games we’ve played 5 have been against teams currently in the top half of the table, won 1, drawn 2 & lost 2. Of the 9 games we’ve played against teams in the bottom half we’ve won 7 & drawn 2 (both away games). So proportionally at this stage we appear to have played more of the weaker teams in the league.

We’ve played 3 teams in, the top 6 (won 1 (home), drawn 1 (home) & lost 1 (away). So mixed results in potential 6 pointers.

It looks like we’re going to beat most teams we play in the lower half of the table, especially at home, with the occasional draw away from home, whilst continuing to struggle against teams in the top half.

The next 3 Championship game are against Brighton (3rd) & Leeds (10th) & QPR (13th), so looking at past performance I would hope to get 4 or 6 points from the next 3 games. December & January fixtures still look particularly difficult.
 
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goldeneadie said:
why are you persisting with these meaningless figures? They have no relation tO the future. Were Man U fans posting similar predictions of doom after we beat them last season/
Click to expand...

It's only a list of data and some trends that I think are supported by the data. Are they meaningless, I don't know I guess we'll find out, but they haven't changed much since I started doing it and the season is moving on. If it's so meaningless why are people going out of their way to dispute it.

I think they were pretty despondent, having been beaten by little Norwich. They also fell well short of their season expectations & replaced their manager.
 
Well we’re still 4th at present, however we’re now 7 points off the league leaders & 4 points away from an automatic promotion place. Not really sure how to describe yesterdays performance, but with 1 point from the last 3 games and a goal difference of -6, plus the cup defeat against Leeds it’s fair to say that the second half of October has been a disaster. If we continue at this rate we’re be out of the promotion race before the new year. Clearly Preston wasn’t a blip and it seems the harder the squad works on defending in training the worse we get. On our current performance levels mid-table mediocrity is calling.

6/8 Blackburn 1 (23rd) Norwich 4
13/8 Norwich 0 Sheffield Wed 0 (7th)
16/8 Norwich 1 Bristol City 0 (6th)
21/8 Ipswich 1 (15th) Norwich 1
27/8 Birmingham 3 (8th) Norwich 0
10/9 Norwich 3 Cardiff 2 (21st)
13/9 Norwich 2 Wigan 1 (22nd)
17/9 Nottingham Forrest 1 (20th) Norwich 2
24/9 Norwich 3 Burton Albion 1 (18th)
28/9 Newcastle 4 (1st) Norwich 3
1/10 Wolves 1 (17th) Norwich 2
15/10 Norwich 3 Rotherham 1 (24th)
18/10 Fulham 2 (11th) Norwich 2
22/10 Norwich 0 Preston 1 (13th)
29/10 Brighton 5 (2nd) Norwich 0

The highest placed team we’ve beat is Bristol in 6th. The lowest placed team we've lost to is Preston in 13th.

We’ve played 7 home games, winning 5, drawing 1 & losing 1, and 8 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 & losing 3.

Of the 15 games we’ve played, 6 have been against teams currently in the top half of the table, won 1, drawn 2 & lost 3. Of the 9 games we’ve played against teams in the bottom half we’ve won 7, drawn 1 (away) & lost 1 (home). The 7 games we’ve won have been against teams currently in the bottom 8 of the league. So as things stand we’ve played disproportionally more of the weaker teams in the league, which perhaps explains the apparent disconnect between our current league position and our performances

We’ve played 3 teams in, the top 6 won 1 (home), & lost 2 (away), so of the potential 6 pointers we’ve played against teams against teams I think are serious challengers for an autos place we’ve lost both games (Newcastle & Brigton) albeit away from home.

It looks like we’re going to beat most teams we play in the lower half of the table, especially at home, with the occasional draw away from home, whilst against teams in the top half it looks like mainly loses or draws, with the occasional win at home.

The next 3 Championship games are against Leeds (9th / home), QPR (14th / away) & Derby (19th / away) Potential to get 9 points from the next 3 games although I’d be happy with 7 (perhaps 4 is more realistic in light of current performances). We really need a good points tally from the next 3 games if we want to be in the top 6 at Christmas. Of our 6 games in December 5 are against teams in the top half of the division with the other game against Aston Villa who play Birmingham today and have a game in hand.
 
Now down to 5th and into freefall. 10 points off the league leaders & 7 points away from an automatic promotion place. No points from the last 3 games, a goal difference of -3 and we seems like an age ago (15th of October) that we last got any points. The club doesn’t look like it’s going to take decisive action any time in the near future and a return to the promised land of the PL seems a long way away. This doesn’t appear to be a blip and at the moment mid-table mediocrity doesn’t seem like it’s such a bad place to be. I think we’re doing too well against the lower teams to keep clear of relegation, but at the moment playing in league 1 next season seems just as likely as playing in the PL..

6/8 Blackburn 1 (23rd) Norwich 4
13/8 Norwich 0 Sheffield Wed 0 (10th)
16/8 Norwich 1 Bristol City 0 (9th)
21/8 Ipswich 1 (15th) Norwich 1
27/8 Birmingham 3 (7th) Norwich 0
10/9 Norwich 3 Cardiff 2 (21st)
13/9 Norwich 2 Wigan 1 (22nd)
17/9 Nottingham Forrest 1 (20th) Norwich 2
24/9 Norwich 3 Burton Albion 1 (18th)
28/9 Newcastle 4 (1st) Norwich 3
1/10 Wolves 1 (19th) Norwich 2
15/10 Norwich 3 Rotherham 1 (24th)
18/10 Fulham 2 (8th) Norwich 2
22/10 Norwich 0 Preston 1 (11th)
29/10 Brighton 5 (2nd) Norwich 0
05/11 Norwich 2 Leeds 3 (6th)

The highest placed team we’ve beat is Bristol in 9th. The lowest placed team we've lost to is Preston in 11th.

We’ve played 8 home games, winning 5, drawing 1 & losing 2, and 8 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 & losing 3.

Of the 16 games we’ve played, 7 have been against the bottom 7 teams and we’ve beat them all. Of the 9 teams we’ve played from 17th up we’ve beaten 1 (Bristol in 9th), drew with 3 and lost to 5.

We’ve played 3 teams in, the top 6 and lost to all of them 2 at home and 1 away. Our results and performance in the potential 6 pointers has been woeful.

At the start of the season we played dis-proportionally more of the weaker teams and consequently our position in the league gave of our supporters, the general footballing public and the board a false impression of our potential to get promoted. Anyone that looked at our performances rather than our position in the league, should have been able to see things more clearly. Unfortunately an over reliance on our league position rather than looking deeper has meant many people have been deluding themselves. Surely now even AN’s greatest supporters should be able to read ‘the writing on the wall’, although I doubt the board will do anything about it until it’s too late.

It still looks like we’re going to beat most teams we play in the lower half of the table, especially at home, with the occasional draw away from home, whilst against teams in the top half it looks like mainly loses or draws, with the occasional win at home. This trend hasn’t really change since I started this pointless analysis

The next 3 Championship games are against QPR (17th / away) Derby (16th / away) and Brentford (12th / home). All winnable games if our players play at anywhere near their full potential, 6 points are essential to even pretend we are promotion candidates.
 
Now down to 6th and our free fall continues. 10 points off the league leaders, Newcastle who have a game in hand & 8 points away from an automatic promotion place. No points from the last 4 games, a goal difference of -4.

6/8 Blackburn 1 (22nd) Norwich 4
13/8 Norwich 0 Sheffield Wed 0 (9th)
16/8 Norwich 1 Bristol City 0 (10th)
21/8 Ipswich 1 (17th) Norwich 1
27/8 Birmingham 3 (5th) Norwich 0
10/9 Norwich 3 Cardiff 2 (21st)
13/9 Norwich 2 Wigan 1 (23rd)
17/9 Nottingham Forrest 1 (18th) Norwich 2
24/9 Norwich 3 Burton Albion 1 (20th)
28/9 Newcastle 4 (1st) Norwich 3
1/10 Wolves 1 (19th) Norwich 2
15/10 Norwich 3 Rotherham 1 (24th)
18/10 Fulham 2 (8th) Norwich 2
22/10 Norwich 0 Preston 1 (11th)
29/10 Brighton 5 (2nd) Norwich 0
05/11 Norwich 2 Leeds 3 (7th)
19/11 QPR 2 (13th) Norwich 1

The highest placed team we’ve beat is Bristol in 10th. The lowest placed team we've lost to is QPR in 13th.

We’ve played 8 home games, winning 5, drawing 1 & losing 2, and 9 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 & losing 4.

Of the 17 games we’ve played, 7 have been against the bottom 7 teams and we’ve beat them all. Of the 10 teams we’ve played from 17th up we’ve beaten 1 (Bristol in 9th), drew with 3 and lost to 6.

We’ve played 3 teams in, the top 6 and lost to all of them, 2 at home and 1 away. Our results and performance in the potential 6 pointers has been woeful.

At the start of the season we played disproportionally more of the weaker teams and consequently our position in the league gave a false impression of our potential to get promoted. Too many people (posters) got carried away with our league position rather than focusing on our performances.

It still looks like we’re going to beat most teams we play in the lower half of the table, especially at home, with the occasional draw away from home, whilst against teams in the top half it looks like mainly loses with occasional draws and the odd win at home. This trend hasn’t really change since I started this pointless analysis other than to get stronger

The next 3 Championship games are against Derby (12th / away),and Brentford (14th / home) & Barnsley (15th / home). All games we should be winning if we want promotion. Unless something drastic changes at the club, we’ll be lucky to get 3 points.

The way things are going mid-table mediocrity doesn’t seem such a bad place to be and whilst I enjoyed our last season in league 1, I’m not very keen on another season there. Surely now even AN’s most ardent supporters can see that he’s got to go, unfortunately, I’m still not convinced Delia and co are going to take decisive action any time in the near future. Another month like the last and I think we can wave goodbye to any chance of promotion. and a return to the PL.
 
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