The Politics Thread

[deedub93]

Imported raw materials that are used by British manufacturers too. Many people overlook that although something is manufactured in the U.K., the raw materials to make it are imported.

The fact is that the UK has a large negative trade imbalance with the rest of the world. With the fall against the dollar and, to some extent, the euro, the importation of inflation is unavoidable. That trade imbalance will not disappear any time soon.

Prices will rise!...that will cause political problems for May and the Brexiteers.

Raw material costs will increase, but raw materials generally make up a small part of the cost of manufactured goods. The example I quoted earlier about the midlands packaging company winning a contract from the Chinese, they import recycled plastic from Germany and have had a 15% increase in raw materials since Brexit and still can beat the Chinese on price because of the fall in the pound. WTF we can't recycle our own plastic in this country god knows.

The trade imbalance will only dissappear when British industry gets it's rear end in gear. The biggest cost in this world is the transportation of finished goods from one
country to another, the second biggest cost is labour. We are not land-locked and nowhere in the UK is far from a port, so we have an advantage over many. Now labour costs have signficantly reduced we have no excuses.

Yes we will have inflation, but the magnitude of this inflation will be controlled by how British industry reacts to the situation. And a little inflation is not a bad thing, many economies in this world have been stagnant for far too long. That's why the Bank of England set their Target as 2% not 0%.

As for political problems for May and Co, providing the Labour Party continue on the self-destruct psudo-communist Corbyn path, whatever the Tories do it is almost certain that they will win the next election. Even most of the Labourites admit that they are un-electable.

 

[deedub93]

And we don't have a manufacturing economy. We stopped mass producing things because they were cheaper to import. And we shut down our coal and steel industries - in favour of importing again.

Look at the situation with cars.We can't suddenly start producing cars and competing with the major manufacturers from around the world. Those overseas manufacturers who produce cars here are uncertain whether they want to carry on doing so (take Nissan). If people here want new cars, they will be imported and we will have to pay a premium because of the weak pound. The reality will be that spending will slow down and the economy will go into further recession.

Those imports are just about to get dearer again Luke. British Industry has to react.

The Coal Industry committed suicide, Thatcher put them out of their misery.

The steel industry may actually be able to rise from the ashes, however it will need government help. The Chinese invest in Iron Ore mines, build railways to transport the ore to the coast in many African countries and the build and operate ships to take ore to China. We need to copy their example. It keeps prices down.

Nissan have the most efficient car plant in Europe, they will not close it down. Their labour costs have fallen some 43% in the last two years thanks to the fall in the pound and will probably fall another 10% in the next two years. A 10% tarif on exports will not affect them too adversely. When they sell their cars abroad they sell for foreign currency, not Stirling. Futhermore, they will also probably double or treble their sales in the UK as foreign imports will cost significantly more. I think they will be in a very strong position.

 

[NSIS]

Raw material costs will increase, but raw materials generally make up a small part of the cost of manufactured goods. The example I quoted earlier about the midlands packaging company winning a contract from the Chinese, they import recycled plastic from Germany and have had a 15% increase in raw materials since Brexit and still can beat the Chinese on price because of the fall in the pound. WTF we can't recycle our own plastic in this country god knows.

The trade imbalance will only dissappear when British industry gets it's rear end in gear. The biggest cost in this world is the transportation of finished goods from one
country to another, the second biggest cost is labour. We are not land-locked and nowhere in the UK is far from a port, so we have an advantage over many. Now labour costs have signficantly reduced we have no excuses.

Yes we will have inflation, but the magnitude of this inflation will be controlled by how British industry reacts to the situation. And a little inflation is not a bad thing, many economies in this world have been stagnant for far too long. That's why the Bank of England set their Target as 2% not 0%.

As for political problems for May and Co, providing the Labour Party continue on the self-destruct psudo-communist Corbyn path, whatever the Tories do it is almost certain that they will win the next election. Even most of the Labourites admit that they are un-electable.

I'm sure British industry will react as best it can

However, you seem to be forgetting that with implied reduced wage costs, the unions will kick off again once inflation starts to bite. Many companies will face a choice of acceding partly, or wholly to their demands, or have to face endless strikes, which will hamper productivity significantly.

Inflation will rise significantly above 2% next year, IMO. The BoE will then be left with the unenviable choice of either letting inflation run free, or raising rates into a stagnant economy.

May and Co will suffer political problems, not least from the unions, who will inevitably be fully backed by Corbyn. Whilst I'd agree that Corbyn is unelectable, he can still cause significant damage by his rabid anti-Tory stance; that seemingly puts opposing the Tories over everything and anything else.

All in all, the Brexit brigade may well have 'Got their country back'. Although that is being challenged to an extent in the courts tomorrow, but what's going to be left of it after this debacle, is highly questionable

 

[The RDBD]

...

Lots of stuff there.
You are correct in that businesses will have the spreadsheets out, plug in the losses
and gains, and see what the state of play is.

Some will be "zero sum" , or gain (as the packaging business example) by default.
Others not so, but as you said those of the others that pull their finger out will also achieve similar.

 

[deedub93]

I'm sure British industry will react as best it can

However, you seem to be forgetting that with implied reduced wage costs, the unions will kick off again once inflation starts to bite. Many companies will face a choice of acceding partly, or wholly to their demands, or have to face endless strikes, which will hamper productivity significantly.

Inflation will rise significantly above 2% next year, IMO. The BoE will then be left with the unenviable choice of either letting inflation run free, or raising rates into a stagnant economy.

May and Co will suffer political problems, not least from the unions, who will inevitably be fully backed by Corbyn. Whilst I'd agree that Corbyn is unelectable, he can still cause significant damage by his rabid anti-Tory stance; that seemingly puts opposing the Tories over everything and anything else.

All in all, the Brexit brigade may well have 'Got their country back'. Although that is being challenged to an extent in the courts tomorrow, but what's going to be left of it after this debacle, is highly questionable

I agree that the unions are the biggest threat to the UKs' chances of success, fortunately May has proposed an inclusive system as in Germany where union representatives have a seat on the board. She must follow this through, it has worked so well in Germany.

Bosses salaries need to be relative the success of the company and in turn, workers need to be rewarded to a similar degree. I'm talking bonuses rather than salary increases. I work in the mining industry where 1.5 to 2 months salary is the norm if targets are reached and 1 year salary bonuses are not unheard of where targets and profits are exceeded. This is for everyone, right down to the cleaners and is where British industry should go. The only way to do it is bosses and unions working together.

 

[NSIS]

I agree that the unions are the biggest threat to the UKs' chances of success, fortunately May has proposed an inclusive system as in Germany where union representatives have a seat on the board. She must follow this through, it has worked so well in Germany.

Bosses salaries need to be relative the success of the company and in turn, workers need to be rewarded to a similar degree. I'm talking bonuses rather than salary increases. I work in the mining industry where 1.5 to 2 months salary is the norm if targets are reached and 1 year salary bonuses are not unheard of where targets and profits are exceeded. This is for everyone, right down to the cleaners and is where British industry should go. The only way to do it is bosses and unions working together.

For the UK's sake, I hope you're right on that one.

However, given the long history of political influence and interference in abetting union disruption there, I won't hold my breath!...

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

I agree that the unions are the biggest threat to the UKs' chances of success, fortunately May has proposed an inclusive system as in Germany where union representatives have a seat on the board. She must follow this through, it has worked so well in Germany.

May proposed this system? That's funny, I recall Corbyn proposing such a system several months ago, when Cameron was still PM - and the press roasting him for preferring a dirty, dirty European approach to good old fashioned British unions...

 

[deedub93]

May proposed this system? That's funny, I recall Corbyn proposing such a system several months ago, when Cameron was still PM - and the press roasting him for preferring a dirty, dirty European approach to good old fashioned British unions...

**** me, Corbyn talking sense for once? He must have been drunk. May has certainly bought into it, I think the idea has been floating around for years but nobody, blue or red, has had the balls to impliment it.

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

So according to an opinion piece given prominence on the front page of today's Express, any politician who says we shouldn't rage quit the EU by the end of the week should be locked up in the Tower of London for their lack of patriotism - while throwing around words such as "arrogant" and "whingers" to describe people who disagree with the Express' position.

Somebody might want to explain to them what democracy is - and if they have time, how anti-democratic dictatorships treat their dissenters.

 

[Spur of the Moment]

It will continue to fall until the Brexit negociations are finalised. Somewhere about $1.05 to $1.10 I would guess. It is not a bad thing as ex govener of the Bank of England, Melvin King, pointed out this week. It will result in more jobs as British goods become more competitive abroad. Spending one's way out of recession, i.e. quantative easing, (printing money when you havent got any) is a very dangerous policy, which will come back to bite. Hard graft and expanding manufacturing base, like the Chinese and Koreans have done is the answer.

That's a quite simplistic view as whilst it might have a short term benefit for exporting U.K. Industries it will stimulate inflation - possibly rampant inflation - which as there won't be wage hikes to counter it means that spending will fall and we will drop into an inflationary cycle similar to the '70's.
And for those of us earning Sterling to sustain lives and first homes in the Eurozone this is already pretty horrendous

Brexit will be a disaster. It was bloody obvious on the 22nd June and nothing has happened or is predicted to happen in the foreseeable future (5-10 years) that suggests otherwise now.

 

[NSIS]

That's a quite simplistic view as whilst it might have a short term benefit for exporting U.K. Industries it will stimulate inflation - possibly rampant inflation - which as there won't be wage hikes to counter it means that spending will fall and we will drop into an inflationary cycle similar to the '70's.
And for those of us earning Sterling to sustain lives and first homes in the Eurozone this is already pretty horrendous

Brexit will be a disaster. It was bloody obvious on the 22nd June and nothing has happened or is predicted to happen in the foreseeable future (5-10 years) that suggests otherwise now.

It's like watching a slow motion car crash. You know what's going to happen, but feel powerless to stop it!...

 

[NSIS]

So according to an opinion piece given prominence on the front page of today's Express, any politician who says we shouldn't rage quit the EU by the end of the week should be locked up in the Tower of London for their lack of patriotism - while throwing around words such as "arrogant" and "whingers" to describe people who disagree with the Express' position.

Somebody might want to explain to them what democracy is - and if they have time, how anti-democratic dictatorships treat their dissenters.

It's just unfortunate that some halfwits treat that comic seriously!...

 

[Spur of the Moment]

It's like being in a slow motion car crash. You know what's going to happen, but feel powerless to stop it!...

Sorted for you!!
I only wish I was just watching it.....

 

[PleaseNotPoll]

Print media's dying out and the rags virtually all deserve to go. Won't miss any of them in their current crappy incarnations.
Are they being replaced by anything worthwhile, though? I'm not convinced that they are, unfortunately.

 

[bigsmithy9]

Are there any coal mines working today?I know coal is supposedly out of date but I can remember going to school in Tottenham (Risley Avenue) and almost being run over by a milk float who's driver couldn't see the road..This was in the late 40's.They called it SMOG! Everything,it seemed,was coal fired.
Funny thing.Now they have SMOG in China and people have to walk outside with masks.

 

[PleaseNotPoll]

Are there any coal mines working today?I know coal is supposedly out of date but I can remember going to school in Tottenham (Risley Avenue) and almost being run over by a milk float who's driver couldn't see the road..This was in the late 40's.They called it SMOG! Everything,it seemed,was coal fired.
Funny thing.Now they have SMOG in China and people have to walk outside with masks.

There are 26 open-cast mines in the UK today. The last deep mine closed late last year.
We still import 25.5 million tonnes a year, mainly from Russia.
It provides 40% of our energy for electricity.

 

[deedub93]

So according to an opinion piece given prominence on the front page of today's Express, any politician who says we shouldn't rage quit the EU by the end of the week should be locked up in the Tower of London for their lack of patriotism - while throwing around words such as "arrogant" and "whingers" to describe people who disagree with the Express' position.

Somebody might want to explain to them what democracy is - and if they have time, how anti-democratic dictatorships treat their dissenters.

Who reads these rags anyhow? They are old hat. I don't need a journalist to tell me how to think. Before the internet and Sky TV I only bought a newspaper for the football results, having said that you generally got a bonus of a pair of tits on page three, but no one is allowed to talk about it now, particularly Donald Trump. Love him or hate him, who on here hasn't turned round to one of their mates in a car and said 'look at the tits on that', or wolf-whistled at a girl walking past?

One thing I really hate about newspapers is the expose bit. I don't give a monkeys about who Rod Stewart or Bill Clinton is ****ing, good luck to them, you and I would probably do the same thing if we were in their position. WTF does it matter if some actress from Emmerdale is caught giving her husband a blow job in the back of a motor? Everyone's had a blow job in the back of a motor, she was just silly enough to do it when the press were following her.

All I want to know is the news. Many, many years ago when I was a paper boy,the best bit of journalism I have ever read to this day was the report on a royal wedding in the Morning Star. It read 'traffic was held up in Westminster yesterday when Anne Windsor married Mark Phillips'.

As for Democracy, it only works in a country where everyone is prepared to play by the rules, a bit like cricket used to be when a batsman walked. If this is not the case, a benevolent dictator is often preferable.

 

[PleaseNotPoll]

Donald Trump. Love him or hate him, who on here hasn't turned round to one of their mates in a car and said 'look at the tits on that', or wolf-whistled at a girl walking past?

That's not the same as saying that they've sexually assaulted random women, especially when running for political office.
He's also facing about a million other law suits, including accusations of raping a 13-year-old.
This isn't just a bit of banter between mates.

 

[bigsmithy9]

I missed that motor car episode,DeeDub.OOOOHHHH!

 

[Spurf]

Print media's dying out and the rags virtually all deserve to go. Won't miss any of them in their current crappy incarnations.
Are they being replaced by anything worthwhile, though? I'm not convinced that they are, unfortunately.

That's a very good question PNP people are informing each other on the net and bloggers are filling in lots of the blanks. We appear to be going back to something like the 18th century pamphlets which could be a good thing provided people are aware of who is blogging and why.