Remember when Sole Power won at 100/1? That is nuts looking back over his career over 5f and even crazier given the connections and the starting price.
This is a little dull but Nemoralia will relish the mile tomorrow, has a decent pace to aim at and beat a subsequent group one winner lto. The long York straight should play to her strengths and i can't see anything other than a big race from her tomorrow. I'm happy to put a line through the French race because it wasn't the proper mile and they can turn into sprints which is not her forte. So to sum up my bets for tomorrow are: Don Padeja 10/1 Profitable 6/1 Nemoralia 2/1
As I do not back odds on, Thursday was a bit of a waste of time as I avoided Fair Eva but the only one I fancied at Deauville turned out to be an odds-on shot for Jean-Claude Rouget! Punters at York have to contend with the great British summer on Friday as the forecast is for a wet afternoon on the Knavesmire. By the time the Nunthorpe is run, will the ground have been churned up by the previous races? Five of the field in the Lonsdale ran in the Goodwood Cup and I am struggling to see why Pallasator should not come out best again as he got closest to Big Orange that day. He has not won on easy ground in four years, so he does not want rain. Ed Dunlop’s Trip To Paris has not won since lifting the Gold Cup over a year ago but rain will not hurt his chances. Nemoralia seems to be favourite for the City Of York Stakes primarily on coming second in the Coronation Stakes; however, she has disappointed since so would not be my choice even dropped in class. Forge keeps failing to win at this level so I can overlook him. There are some disappointing types in the older horses, and whilst Librisa Breeze did us a favour last time (thanks to Chelsea), he has to improve considerably to pick this up. Birchwood ran a strange race behind Dutch Connection at Goodwood but a repeat of his previous race might be good enough today, if he has not simply become unreliable. Rain could obviously be bad news for Limato in the big race but would be welcomed by Michael Dods for Mecca’s Angel. My feeling is that the sixth furlong was why PROFITABLE was three lengths in arrears of Limato in the July Cup and rain would help his cause today but is not essential; and he is 3-3 over five this year. The two-year-old Yalta would not be an upset but I think too much store is being set on the blistering time at Goodwood whilst ignoring his two previous poor runs. He will not get an uncontested lead today. Will have to wait until nearer race time for betting purposes to see how much rain there is and how many withdraw. With the recent history of upsets, there are a few that should not be entirely ruled out.
Away from York there is a nice listed race at Salisbury. I have a little fancy for Ronald R 4/1 who ran a nice race on debut which has worked out nicely with several winners. He won well on his second start with a typical Spencer ride on seemed to have a bit to spare. He should improve more and has a good chance of following up.
Yes TC, he's still miles better than the lot of them though. Gemili could not have been unluckier. Lost bronze by 3/1000'ths of a second. Poor bugger.
Have had a big saver on MECCAS ANGEL @ 5/1 with 5mm of rain forecasted this 12 the ground will surely be on the slow side of good and tacky not the ground that Limato needs! And if the rain does turn up the real Angel of the North will fly
It's raining, I'm stuck in a room watching an upgrade slide bar creep up by percentage points, it's a bit drab and I'm quite bored. So.As a sub plot to goings on Oop at York, I've been having a look at the Champion Jockey race Crowley Versus De Sousa; De Sousa is currently on 73 wins, Crowley on 63 ( Doyle a further 5 behind on 58 ) Both the top 2 face off today at Sandown, then Crowley moves on to Salisbury to try and play catch up. Could that chase offer us some rich pickings? Here's the details. Crowley Sandown 2.55 Babyfact 3.30 Calibration 4.05 War Story 5.15 Blind Faith Salisbury 6.35 Star Maker 7.05 Jackhammer 7.35 Novalina 8.05 Lily Trotter De Sousa Sandown 2.55 Ejbaar 3.30 Reverend Jacobs 4.05 Wimpole Hall 4.40 Wall of Light 5.15 Angel Grace I like all 4 of Crowley's rides at Salisbury if I'm honest and I like Ejbaar in the 2.55 at Sandown for De Sousa Doyle joins in with a great shout at Sandown on Daily Bulletin in the 4.05, just to add some spice to the above. The 5.15 at Sandown will probably be won by Palisade, so sratch that one out. I think I will play on Ejbaar, Calibration, Star Maker, Novalina and Lily Trotter in a Lucky 31 ( ! ) and a five fold each way. Enjoy.
Was passed on two pieces of news from two separate guys at work this morning, one being better than the other but let's see. Firstly was for BIRCHWOOD 3.05 York @ 12/1 from my boss who had a text from a source that has given him a few winners but he didn't seem too over confident and secondly was one for a greyhound tonight. A guy I work with owns a dog in this kennel and has done for about 5 months or so now and tonight the trainer is sending 2 to Romford for the first time ever. I asked all the usual questions and all that and he gave very good reasonings as to why they are going to Romford. To cut a long story short they think they have a very good dog on their hands but going to Romford to compete in an open race the price is a long one. T5 UNKNOWN ASASSIN 7.47 Romford, also 12/1. Like last time I'm not advising on getting the wheelbarrows out but worth a few sheckles and see what happens.
Trip To Pars 3/1 York 2.30 - a nice reappearance over an inadequate trip behind Scottish last month should have sharpened his pencil for today and if he can produce his A game he will surely win. Speculative each way on Silver Rainbow 40/1 in the Nunthorpe. Has improved as a 4 yo apparently and has done nothing but what has been asked of him his last 4 starts, could play a minor role if the race falls apart. Charles Hills going well lately also. Black Trilby 5/1 York 4.20 - decent price and a reproduction of his 3rd at Goodwood should see him bang there today, often hard to gauge these where some could improve a mile for a run but Black Trilby will do for me.
STH ... I was advised of silver rainbow last Saturday si gave a couple of bob ew in it today ... Fingers xd
Have heard nothing solid on LB. Just expected to go alright but honestly they'd be surprised if it won. Twin Sails expected to go close in the 4 55 though, Bobby wheeler big danger. And yeh course i'm keeping the faith with goldream!!!
