Off Topic EU deabte. Which way are you voting ?

[DMD]

As I said you patently don't understand it.

The uncertainty of the decision, which saw the markets tank when it looked like Brexit were winning and then recover strongly when it appeared that they were going to lose at the death (which should give you a clue). Have now been replaced by the certainty of Brexit and all of the massive uncertainty that brings with it.

You remainers were warned about this before the vote but chose to trust chumps like Farage, who offered no positive tangible view of what would happen post Brexit.

Instead him and his cohorts tried to ridicule the predictions of virtually every economic expert who predicted a gloomy outcome, as hyperbole and doom mongering. They tried to make out that economics was a black art, and used the 2008 crash to try and justify this absolute bollocks - well they didn't see that coming, ergo their view is not worth listening to.

Only 2008 was primarily caused by Sherman's bundling up ****e debt in bonds sold all over the globe causing a crisis that few could have predicted - however, once the crash started the economists could accurately predict what would happen - and did, as its basic economics not some mystical bullshit.

They did the same with Brexit.

The pound will fall - already happening
Therefore exports will cost more and we have a trade deficit = inflation
Inflation = cost of living increases = less disposable income
Consumer confidence also falls due to the uncertainty = less spending
The 2 combined = a shrinking economy and a fall in GDP
Inflation needs to be controlled = interest rate rises
Creates yet more contraction
Contraction = job losses
Job losses = further contraction
Lack of overseas investment = further contraction
The public purse reduces and unemployment rises = massive reduction in public spending

This is how it'll pan out, vault me on it. As its not some mysterious black art, it's basic ****ing economics

I'd bother reading that in more detail if it came from someone intent on discussion rather than one that just comes across as a meaningless pompous arse trying to chuck out pithy personal abuse as a pretence of superiority.


As it is, I knew the simplified version you've posted, but it misses the point in a few places.

 

[Treble]

I have answered, it's you and the others that are doing what you're claiming I am.

Our position in Europe hasn't changed. It won't change for about two years minimum. What's happening is the market makers making a point. That's what I'm talking about when I suggest controls.

The trouble is that as Tobes said, those two years (even the next 3 months) will bring uncertainty. Uncertainty can lead to a snowball in a lack of public confidence. That could lead to a downturn. I might be wrong and it might all blow over. What I don't get is how you're so confident it will blow over and that there is no chance that we'll snowball into a financially worse situation. BTW I'm only going by what happens when we have any uncertainty in the market. Example, we had China last year suddenly reduce their forecast for growth and the market dipped and are still only just recovering. That was minor compared to seismic change we've just undergone.

Imagine for a second we did go through an economic downturn and it impacted on jobs, homes, banking, I am interested to know what we'll be doing to deal with that.

 

[DMD]

We have little choice but to reconcile a way forward.

As I found out, some people you just cannot debate with. As soon as you point out any flaws in their argument, they become defensive and insulting.

As I said earlier, I'm more than happy to debate with considered Brexiters, like afctw, but with some others you just have to give up and let it go.

All you do is repeat the same version of misery, no matter what anyone posts.

 

[Tobes]

I'd bother reading that in more detail if it came from someone intent on discussion rather than one that just comes across as a meaningless pompous arse trying to chuck out pithy personal abuse as a pretence of superiority.


As it is, I knew the simplified version you've posted, but it misses the point in a few places.

Code for: I'm out of my ****ing depth and know I have no reasoned response to that post, so I'll swerve a response by claiming he's being an arse for having the temerity to challenge my one eyed clueless ramblings

 

[The RDBD]

The financial markets are the hub of any capitalist economy ffs. Their influence isn't going to change, merely the affect that their influence has on our economy post this debacle, as for the foreseeable it'll be a negative impact.

The only industry sector I know that can cause negative self-fulfilling prophecies,
or when they don't meet their own vaguely contrived predictions, run around like a herd of
headless sheep. And cost others millions in the process but not themselves.

 

[DMD]

The trouble is that as Tobes said, those two years (even the next 3 months) will bring uncertainty. Uncertainty can lead to a snowball in a lack of public confidence. That could lead to a downturn. I might be wrong and it might all blow over. What I don't get is how you're so confident it will blow over and that there is no chance that we'll snowball into a financially worse situation. BTW I'm only going by what happens when we have any uncertainty in the market. Example, we had China last year suddenly reduce their forecast for growth and the market dipped and are still only just recovering. That was minor compared to seismic change we've just undergone.

Imagine for a second we did go through an economic downturn and it impacted on jobs, homes, banking, I am interested to know what we'll be doing to deal with that.

American and other foreign news feeds have differing opinions of the cause of the dip to the simplistic versions some tub thumped on here.

 

[DMD]

Code for: I'm out of my ****ing depth and know I have no reasoned response to that post, so I'll swerve a response by claiming he's being an arse for having the temerity to challenge my one eyed clueless ramblings

I'll take your word for it. It sounds like your area of expertise.

 

[DMD]

The only industry sector I know that can cause negative self-fulfilling prophecies,
or when they don't meet their own vaguely contrived predictions, run around like a herd of
headless sheep. And cost others millions in the process but not themselves.

And also have self interest groups at the helm.

 

[NSIS]

All you do is repeat the same version of misery, no matter what anyone posts.

It's reality! You just choose to put your own spin on it.

What Tobes posted, although a simplified version, is a likely scenario.

Uncertainty is an economy killer! The markets, investment, and public confidence. So long as that holds sway, which looks like being for the forseeable future, the country is going to suffer.

 

[Tobes]

The only industry sector I know that can cause negative self-fulfilling prophecies,
or when they don't meet their own vaguely contrived predictions, run around like a herd of
headless sheep. And cost others millions in the process but not themselves.

I'm not arguing with that, but it's the core of a capitalist economy mate, and that isn't going to change merely because we don't like the conclusions that they'll draw which will lead to an economic crash.

It was all predicted, by virtually every economic expert out there. You can't cry arse about it post 'winning'.

 

[Treble]

American and other foreign news feeds have differing opinions of the cause of the dip to the simplistic versions some tub thumped on here.

What are those?

BTW I don't think they're simplistic, they are typical imo.

 

[Tobes]

I'll take your word for it. It sounds like your area of expertise.

It's not yours, there's another fact for you love x

 

[DMD]

It's reality! You just choose to put your own spin on it.

What Tobes posted, although a simplified version, is a likely scenario.

Uncertainty is an economy killer! The markets, investment, and public confidence. So long as that holds sway, which looks like being for the forseeable future, the country is going to suffer.

It's an over simplified version. Sadly, when the debate looks to be moving beyond that, you and a few others pipe up and disrupt it.

 

[PINKIE]

I know everyone is panicking about Brexit and Trump becoming president, but there's no need to worry, Jesus will save us

Hope that helps'

Ricky Gervias

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

A tanked pound for 12 months will kill most independent businesses that import from the EU.

You got a nice safe job that pays you a decent wage WR?

A decent wage for someone of my age but not wealthy. A tanked pound for 12 months, should that prove to be the case, shouldn't do the business I work for too much harm.

 

[NSIS]

It's an over simplified version. Sadly, when the debate looks to be moving beyond that, you and a few others pipe up and disrupt it.

There you go again! Spouting pointless soundbites on a subject you very clearly know **** all about!

 

[DMD]

It's not yours, there's another fact for you love x

True, but you perhaps need to reread and rethink what I was defining as your area of expertise.

 

[DMD]

There you go again! Spouting pointless soundbites on a subject you very clearly know **** all about!

There you go again, stopping a discussion expanding.

 

[Stan]

How long it takes will depend on what noises are coming from the negotiations about access to the common market. I'm afraid I can't give any exact timeline as it really will depend when negotiations start and how quickly we make it clear that is our preferred outcome. It will also depend what noises are made about our direction in regards to non-EU countries. But it is in everyone's best interests to get a deal done quickly and so I'd hope that at some point fairly early within the two year negotiation period the right noises begin to be heard.

I don't flippantly dismiss anyone's worries about brexit and openly told people I expected there to be negative effects in the short term in the lead up to the referendum, I've not shied away from it and understand why some people are worried. But I do genuinely believe that in the medium to long term this will result in a stronger economy.




I know this one wasn't aimed at me but I'd say firstly that my hope is that it won't be a tanked pound to a level that makes importing unfeasable for a 12 month period as my opinion is that access to the common market will be the focal point of negotiations and that will become clear fairly quickly (which is likely to piss off a lot of leave voters I'd imagine due to the compromises we will likely have to accept) which will lead to a recovery on the pound. And secondly I'd hope that any import business who deals heavily with the EU would have put some level of contingency plans in place incase of a brexit and drop of the pound.

Long story short mate, a 40 something entrepreneur, who in his niche industry is recognised as an innovator, goes to the wall because a lot of the country voted on something they don't understand and some more of the country voted for a change that had no plan attached to it.

Amongst those voters the wilfully uneducated and unemployed.

Rule Chav Britannia.

 

[NSIS]

There you go again, stopping a discussion expanding.

Why bother to discuss with a ****wit who just thinks he knows more about everything than everybody.

I've got news for you, you give away your stupidity with every post you make about things you know absolutely nothing about - but, of course are too pig headed to admit that.

I worked in those markets for over 20 yrs, but of course you know more about them than I do!