From an analysis of poll statistics I've read, I think voter turnout and the undecided voters will be what swings it.
Most polls have Leave and Remain about the same, perhaps 1-3% difference, all around 45%. If voter turnout is low then you'd expect Leave supporters to be those more likely to turn out to vote, and therefore swing it their way. Above about a 70% voter turnout, that advantage will be negated, and the undecided voters play a larger role. If a week before the referendum those people hadn't been motivated by the arguments of the Leave campaign, you would expect them to be more likely to vote for the status quo. General Election turnout was 65%.
As an aside, and perhaps somewhat with my mod hat on, can I thank everyone for keeping this thread relatively civil. I can't remember myself or the other mods having to interfere in ~400 posts. It goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway), that whatever the result everyone on this board will still be a Norwich fan, and their views on footballing matters and otherwise will of course be valued. Losing any members as a result of squabbles over the referendum result would therefore be a mighty shame, and I'd be really disappointed to see angry exchanges on here when the referendum result is known. Commiserate, celebrate, discuss, but let's please not turn on each other.
