Off Topic The Politics Thread

Ireland achieved independence from Britain 100 years ago and for the last 37 years has been a happy participant within the EU. Contrary to popular belief, you can be fully independent within the EU and in full control of immigration matters. Remember that UK voters.

Chaz, don't leave the debate. Your contribution has been admirable and the figures at the top of the page show remain still in the lead amongst the readers of this page. You are the voice of reason.

 

I'm certainly not calling for an end to ALL immigration.

 

Vote leave

 

that's the point, no one in Brexit are saying no more immigration, it's the quality not the quantity. Look at those sleeping rough in Marble Arch. The Eastern European can't believe their luck, sending their social misfits and criminals over here so we foot the bill for them

 

here two votes, you have taken in 100,000's and the country has changed out of all recognition. My last visit even the band playing Irish traditional music was Polish

 

Here we go Brexiters, the nightmare scenario:

On 23rd June England and Wales vote narrowly for Brexit. Scotland votes massively for Remain. The Scottish votes swing it. Unlikely? At the moment it's roughly 50/50 in England, advantages to either side within error margins. In Scotland latest poll has 76% in favour of Remain.

I almost want this to happen.

 

...and start a trade war, Tooting? How's she going to explain that to the CEO's of Mercedes, VW, BMW, Audi, Neff, Miele, Bosch, Siemens etc when they come knocking to complain, when we set up import visas in retaliation?

The current report from the Office of National Statistics shows that the UK is increasingly becoming less reliant on Europe for trade. In March, less than half of exports of goods made in the UK went to the EU. This is the 19th month in a row that the UK has sold more to the rest of the world, than to the EU.

At the same time, UK imports from the EU hit a record £19.4 bn. This results in an £8.1 bn trade deficit with the EU - the largest ever. Germany and France sell much more to us than we sell to them. So rather than **** us over royally, it's most likely there'll be a reciprocal free trade agreement, such as the US currently has. I accept the EU won't give us access to the single market on a gold plated deal pour decourager les autres, but we don't need it.

In essence, in the event of Brexit, EU officials will reluctantly recognise that we were never going to enter the single currency, and have found unacceptable the prospect of being in a club where the rules will be made by the 26 Euro countries (as they will be). They won't want a trade war with an ally, particularly one that is the fifth biggest economy in the world, which employs many of their compatriots (London is the fifth biggest French city) and one that they will need to rely upon for sharing security information and military muscle. So they will do what the EU do best. Meet with the new UK government and agree a fudge acceptable to all.

 

What did those CEOs say to her when Cameron was looking for compromises then? None of them want a Brexit, if they had that much clout she'd have listened to them and forced her to compromise more during negotiations - not wait until after the horse has bolted.

People will still buy Neff or Bosch even with tariffs - its a question of whether IDS or Johnson decide to piss off consumers by enforcing it

 

[QUOTE="GoldhawkRd, post: 9230926, member: 1007913They won't want a trade war with an ally, particularly one that is the fifth biggest economy in the world, which employs many of their compatriots (London is the fifth biggest French city) and one that they will need to rely upon for sharing security information and military muscle. So they will do what the EU do best. Meet with the new UK government and agree a fudge acceptable to all.[/QUOTE]

Won't we be kicking all these Frenchies out Goldie - along with all the Eastern Europeans?

 

Most certainly the CEO's of the big corporates don't want Brexit - the single market suits them and they have huge lobbying power in the corridors of Brussels to get the rules they want. But we're talking about a situation where Brexit has happened and as I understand it, you're saying that Merkel will start a trade war with the UK. It won't happen, because it's not necessary for trade to suffer on both sides of The Channel just so Merkel can say "see how we've punished them." Instead we have a free trade deal like most other ex-EU countries, and we go on increasing our trade with the rest of the world while the EU continues to look inward and study its navel.

 

Won't we be kicking all these Frenchies out Goldie - along with all the Eastern Europeans?[/QUOTE]



Now then, Strolls, you know as well as I do that no EU citizen that's here and working gets sent home. All Brexit parties have been clear on that. There may be cases for others to stay too, like non-working mothers. The detail will have to be worked out - in liaison with the EU, because we may be leaving but we're still part of Europe.

What we're talking about is controlling future immigration. Taking those we need, and not discriminating against non-EU countries

 

Now then, Strolls, you know as well as I do that no EU citizen that's here and working gets sent home. All Brexit parties have been clear on that. There may be cases for others to stay too, like non-working mothers. The detail will have to be worked out - in liaison with the EU, because we may be leaving but we're still part of Europe.

What we're talking about is controlling future immigration. Taking those we need, and not discriminating against non-EU countries[/QUOTE]
So we won't be ending the stress on public services that the current EU migrants are said to cause? Do we take in the families of 'those we need' as well? Honestly, these type of questions need a response, as lot of people will be voting leave in the expectation that their current experiences will change.

EU migration would of course fall rapidly, and many current migrants leave, if, as one allegedly 'non partisan' economic think tank predicts the value of the pound collapses 20-25% over the next few years. But I have never seen an accurate prediction of the future from an economist.

 

So we won't be ending the stress on public services that the current EU migrants are said to cause? Do we take in the families of 'those we need' as well? Honestly, these type of questions need a response, as lot of people will be voting leave in the expectation that their current experiences will change.

EU migration would of course fall rapidly, and many current migrants leave, if, as one allegedly 'non partisan' economic think tank predicts the value of the pound collapses 20-25% over the next few years. But I have never seen an accurate prediction of the future from an economist.[/QUOTE]



As you say, it's less about relieving the stress, more not making it more acute. I imagine some categories of those EU immigrants that have come, never worked but lived on benefits, will be returned. I haven't seen that sort of detail from Brexiters, and perhaps it will come in the next 6 weeks.

All the stuff about the pound collapsing is about as well-worked as Cameron predicting world war and genocide.

 

As you say, it's less about relieving the stress, more not making it more acute. I imagine some categories of those EU immigrants that have come, never worked but lived on benefits, will be returned. I haven't seen that sort of detail from Brexiters, and perhaps it will come in the next 6 weeks.

All the stuff about the pound collapsing is about as well-worked as Cameron predicting world war and genocide.[/QUOTE]
I think it's pretty tricky stuff on immigration.

The £ has already slipped 10% against the € and the $ in the last few months. Devaluation makes a country a less attractive trade partner for businesses which report their income in stronger currencies. Perhaps BMW won't be so bothered after all.

 

I think it's pretty tricky stuff on immigration.

The £ has already slipped 10% against the € and the $ in the last few months. Devaluation makes a country a less attractive trade partner for businesses which report their income in stronger currencies. Perhaps BMW won't be so bothered after all.[/QUOTE]



Uncertainty over the referendum. The UK economy is still comparatively strong. If BMW aren't bothered about the fifth biggest economy in the world, they'll go to the wall. Of course - they are

 

Plans for an EU army and ever closer political union have been put on hold by the EU till after our referendum.
All those voting to remain are walking straight into a Federal Europe and a remain vote will be taken by our masters in Germany etc as an endorsement.
Voting to remain doesn't mean you are voting for no change.

 

So, wastrel top slapper 'artist' Tracy Emin says its madness to leave the EU. Well, if I wasn't sure we should leave before, I bloody well am now!

 

Vote leave

 

I'm not voting and can't wait until it's over.

I think we should be in but in a slightly a bit more out kind of way.

I have given up trying to decide as I'm still non the wiser tbh!