Sorry Thurnby, but the Watford game is now on 11th May, the same evening as sunderland play their missed game at home to Everton.
Winnable = Bold, Draw = Italics "6-pointers" = Underlined Norwich: Palace (A), Sunderland (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H), Watford (H), Everton (A). Palace: Norwich (H), Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (A), Stoke (H), Southampton (A) Newcastle: Southampton (A), Swansea (H), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), Villa (A), Spurs (H) Sunderland: Leicester (H), Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H), Watford (A) It seems to me that Sunderland really have to beat us to have any real chance of staying up. Their next 3 home games are against big clubs and their next aways are against us and Stoke, who are looking strong at the moment. Ironically their last 2 games are the same as ours, Everton (H), Watford (A). It'd be great if we could be out of reach before those last two games.
Our game versus Sunderland is a must-win for them, for us I think we need a win and a draw from the next two games, regardless of which way around it is. 35 points with Sunderland on 27-28 points would be a very strong position. I do think Sunderland are capable of upsetting a big team though, so wouldn't be surprised at all if they pick up an unexpected 3 points from somewhere.
It's possible that Chelsea could be somewhat 'on the beach' by the time they play them, but both Leicester and Arsenal still have a lot at stake. It's down to us to keep the run going and hopefully beat the Mackems.
Courtesy of reddit: please log in to view this image I think projecting based on form in the last 5 games is overly generous to us, but does show quite what poor form Watford, Everton, Palace and Newcastle are in.
That's a really interesting visual @DHCanary . Interesting that the projection puts us above Palace and Watford too. Appreciate it's a simplified method but good to see some other teams on horror form. Hopefully we've had our blip and we're on the up!
Excellent find DH and after our last few games, I'm sure not many would bet against us performing our own 'Great Escape'. I'd settle for a draw on Saturday (as long as we're only playing against 11 and not 12!!!) and then we have a week off before we travel to Arsenal.
I'm not sure I could view our staying up as a "great escape". We've generally managed to stay out of the relegation places and it was only that horror run of no wins in 10/11 that made us lose a bit of faith. We have for the main been one step ahead of them from the north east. If Newcastle were to stay up now, then that would be somewhere close to a great escape, Sunderland with a game in hand and only 4 points behind will feel survival is very much still on, with the game a CR a great chance to peg us back. If Villa stayed up then that wouldn't just be great it would be miraculous. Whilst I think if we stay up it would be great, a great achievement over the season, great for the club and it's coffers. A great escape....no Bah!
The analysis is limited, but at least it is objective and 'form' based rather than based on what someone 'thinks' teams will do. Sunderland's game in hand has now effectively become Arsenal, as they play that when we have no match, though we then have to play Arsenal away while Sunderland are away at Stoke. If we still have at least a 3-4 point lead at that point, our chances would seem to be good given that the final 3 games are similar for us and Sunderland. Also, if we win against Palace, a whole new opportunity opens up!
I am now 95% confident that if we draw with Sunderland we will stay up. Their other fixtures are really quite tough, Allardyce is getting seeds of discontent because the football is quite negative going for draws - I have always thought Newcastle would be the more dangerous one with their run in, but losing to us save for a miracle return to form has essentially relegated them.
Palace away is enormous. Another win would be unreal. I just watched the tunnel cam video posted by the club and the spirit of the team looks in very good health. This is crucial going into these final encounters. I'm so pleased DM stuck his neck out and stuck with AN as this seems to have helped us all out (so far...)
I don't think there was ever much pressure to sack AN as the team morale was good and the performances reasonable, even if te results didn't reflect that. The Board decided to stick with AN and that was the right decision. New manager bounce happens because things have gone wrong, not just a bad run of results. We needed a win to boost confidence and we got that and then carried it forward to the Newcastle game. Hopefully we can do the same at Palace and then Sunderland.
I think Neil's problem in the summer was being young unknown and new to the league he was struggling to persuade players to join. The result has been that he working with a really patchy squad. There are some excellent players in our team but there are also some very average ones. Keeping this squad up would be a great achievement and a good starting place to build on. If we did we would be looking at our 5th PL season in 6 years thats starting to become regulars.
If and it is a big if we can drag ourselves further away from sunderland on Saturday that will put them under huge pressure the following week which should not be underestimated. I think that now Klose is embedded he has made a huge difference for us. Hopefully Rusty will be back on Saturday and Ruddy will manage a clean sheet to give us at least a point. I reckon 37 points may be enough if we beat Sunderland but I will be delighted if we can manage a few more to make sure!
And a win against Palace would drag them right into the mix. Max points from the next 2 games will see us home and save a lot of worry and sleepless nights in the final couple of weeks... Please.
Week 3 of this analysis... The win for Palace all but secures their survival. I don't see two more teams making it to 37 points. So I'm going to remove them from the analysis from now on. It's 2 from 3 for sure. In terms of this set of results, Norwich failed to capitalise on a "6-pointer", whilst I'd predicted Newcastle a point which they failed to gain. Despite defeat Sunderland probably gain the most, as they've got a tricky fixture out of the way without losing ground. Winnable = Bold, Draw = Italics "6-pointers" = Underlined Norwich fixtures: Sunderland (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H), Watford (H), Everton (A). Newcs: Swansea (H), Man City (H), Liverpool (A), Palace (H), Villa (A), Spurs (H) Sunderland: Norwich (A), Arsenal (H), Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H), Watford (A) So the last "6-pointer" between these 3 is Norwich-Sunderland next time out, and I've changed the Newcastle-Palace game to a Newcastle win, because Palace will probably be plenty comfortably enough by then. Watford's form appears to be showing no sign of turning a corner, so I've upgraded Sunderland's last game of the season from a draw to a win. Norwich +5 = 36 (37 played) --------------------------- Newcastle +9 = 34 (38 played) Sunderland +4 = 31 (37 played) A win next week would really be huge, Newcastle would need 3 wins from 6 just to catch us, and I expect their opponents in other games to still have something to fight for until the end of the season. Sunderland would also need an additional 3 points on top of those I'm predicting for the rest of the season, meaning they'd have to take something from Arsenal, Chelsea or Stoke. In fact, the difficulty of all the fixtures for 2 weeks after the Sunderland game means the table could well be unchanged up to the final 2/3 games.
Excellent work DH. A win next week would be huge indeed, but even a draw wouldn't be a disaster. Sunderland's game in hand is effectively Arsenal (H), as we have no game that week. If they lose that, then the final 4 games for each are of a similar degree of difficulty: Norwich fixtures: Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H), Watford (H), Everton (A). Sunderland: Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H), Watford (A) Stoke are hard to beat at their place, Chelsea could be a draw along with Everton(H) and Watford(A). There could be a win in those, but on today's performance I doubt it (Sunderland have 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 games). Everton have a much better record away than at home and Watford are better at home, which is an advantage for us in each case. Our game with Watford at home could be the key if we aren't safe by then. A win next week could be a killer blow for both Sunderland and Newcastle though and we could all breathe a bit more easily.
