Hi all, I have written a new article on the academy and youth progression under Koeman. Hope you enjoy! https://www.the-newshub.com/football/the-gamblers-fallacy The Gambler's Fallacy With academy progression into the Southampton FC first XI slowing and the club giving out some mixed messages, what does this mean for the future of the best football academy in the world?
Nicely written. The gambling references were nicely used and I see the point you make. However, I would think about things in this way and see if you can resolve them. There is a Southampton standard of academy player, who in 2013 was deemed good enough to sit in the squad seats or play on the pitch while the club was re-establishing itself in the PL. At some point in that re-establishment, possibly when several young star players were sold for a lot of money, Saints became cash rich. This not only gave Saints the chance to replace the players, it gave them a chance to shorten the progression time of the club by buying slightly older, more finely tuned to SFC players. Players who were not only hungry, but better than had left. That cleared out the academy of the immediate star prospects, so they could hardly play for Saints anymore, apart from JWP and Reed, neither of whom have attracted more than interest from other clubs. And there's good reason for that. JWP isn't quite there yet and Reed certainly isn't. When I say they're not quite there I mean that the Saints 1st team squad overall standard has risen, while at the same time the very best graduates have moved on. The overall average Saints Academy standard remains as it was, but that's where the problem lies. They will have to be better overall now to get in the 1st team squad. That doesn't mean the academy is falling off. These things take time to develop. And by making the Saints Academy higher profile it will become more successful as we start to get a greater share of the pool of wannabees. But we've got a few in the pipeline anyhow. EDIT: With apologies to Matt Targett as I completely forgot about him. He's in the same bracket as JWP.
The link is not working I could probably make a guess at the content of the article from the title. We've discussed it on this forum previously, especially when the first team results were poor. To me it's kind of a non story, because there are several reasons for perceived change in course 1) We've sold them - Had it not been for ridiculous offers Shaw & Chambers would still be here as u21 players in the first team. 2) Expectations - The club and the fans now expect us to be a top 10 team in the premier league. If you want to do that you need a deeper squad of senior professionals. Saints still have a slim squad in terms of numbers, but have not suffered too badly with injuries. Some long term, but not two or three players at once in the same position. In fact it's the u21s who have suffered more injuries. Three of the first choice back four and two strikers are long term absentees. 3) Pochettino - Spurs and their English core. Poch is great at blooding youngsters. I won't refute the guys abilities as a coach and especially with academy players, but it's worth noting that Spurs only have one player from their academy who is first choice and that's Harry Kane. The other top young players like Alli Dier were acquisitions. 4) Patience - People forget that it traditionally takes years for a player to establish themselves as first teamers, especially at the very top of the game. Even the greatest player in this clubs history(Le God) was not a first name on the team sheet until he was 21/22. Same for Alan Shearer. Hat-Trick at 17, but it was another 4 years before he really got consistent for Saints and earned an England call and those are two of the best players this country has seen. Forster has stolen the headlines, but the 3-5-2 and the inclusion of Matty Targett as a more regular fixture in the team has changed our fortunes. So don't think the academy is not contributing right now
Undoubtedly fewer are coming through at the moment (a blip or not?), but this has been aggravated by the sale of Academy players. This issue wouldn't be discussed if we had Shaw, Chambers and Lallana still playing in a side which already includes Targett and JWP. We are playing very young players in Academy games...fifteen year olds in U18s for instance. Probably best to review this in a year or two.
That's better, thanks. One thing I have to point out is that the Saints Academy never has turned out gems every single year. As your own figures state, there were 4 years between the sales of Gareth Bale and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and another 3 years before the super-sale year of 2014. To use your gambling analogy, we have never relied on hitting the jackpot every year. Currently, we have James Ward-Prowse and Matt Targett featuring regularly in the first team: no mean feat considering the squad is possibly the strongest I can ever remember it being in over 50 years of supporting Saints. JWP competes for his place with full international players but still gets plenty of minutes on the pitch. I believe this strength in depth is, long term, to the benefit of the Academy because it sets the bar higher and means the boys all know that the only chance they have of breaking through is by being exceptionally good, hard-working footballers. This, in turn, boosts recruitment and allows a higher standard to be set all the way down the age groups. Whatever Koeman has said publicly about the current U21 crop, he knows as well as anyone the importance of the Academy. And there are some good players coming through: next year the likes of McCarthy, Stephens, Jones, Gape and Seager will be alongside Harry Reed hammering on the first team door, with the likes of Olomola and Vokins coming along behind.
Interesting stuff. Personally I think everything in life is cyclical. That might be a fallacy, but plenty of evidence suggests it's true. Wouldn't use it as the basis for a bet though - that's what the form book's for.
