I was reading about the possible takeover at Villa where the valuation range was £150 - 200m and thinking that seemed quite low given that was roughly how much ALF sold us to Khan a few years back and the new TV has come in, along with the side of their fan base / stadium. I know there are problems at Villa, although I don't know what they are specifically, so maybe that has brought their value down, ALF was in a strong position as a seller at that time but even still, it highlights how good a deal ALF made or shows Villa are in deep doggy do, or both. Now, after the disasterous start for Khan, I'm not sure what we would be valued at. Khan might well stick it out in the hope it will help him capitalise on an NFL London franchise cash frenzy but I think there is a chance he would sell if he could recoup something near to what he paid. Others must be more financially minded and informed to have a better idea, but with the price quoted for Villa and our current situation we must appear to be worth about half what he paid to most? although naturally it does depend on the buyer and perhaps the approved planning permission has given us a boost?
ALF did a very good deal. I know it was a few years before but Ashley didn't pay as much for Newcastle as Khan did for Fulham and given how big a club Newcastle are compared to us what ALF managed to get was amazing really. It wouldn't surprise me if dropping out of the Premiership costs a club about 50% of its value, give the drop in revenue that the relegation entails and the sale of it's major assets in terms of high profile players then you would have to take off more for the fact that we aren't anywhere near promotion material in the near future (and could conceivably be relegated, although this is probably unlikely). If Khan sold now I reckon he'd only get about 40% of his investment back. He couldn't flog it as a viable candidate for promotion next year without investment in the team and that would need to come off the bottom line for the potential buyer.
Altruistic and aesthetic considerations can play a part when a prospective buyer comes along. However we are led to believe that Mr Khan is at heart a businessman. So going with that as a model, here’s the recognised business formula to calculate how much a football club really is worth: please log in to view this image Obviously the current figures are unknown and can’t be plugged in. However we can speculate. Say revenue is £60m, assets (players transfer value) is £30m, net profit in fact is a debt of £11m, stadium capacity is 75% and wage ratio is 70%. Apply those to the formula and the valuation is £35m give or take. Of course the formula is badly skewed since it makes no allowance for the heritage of The Cottage.
Some times it depends on the debts that are carried through the negotiations, think ALF had written off the debts to the club but reflected that in the asking price, hence a lot of buyers were put off and it took him a while to get rid to someone who was willing to bankroll for other reasons, which is why no one really knows why Khan became owner.
I'm sure a bit of digging would bring me the answers but does anyone have to mind what the respective figures would be for C58s formula around the time Khan bought us?
Here you go silky - you'll find figures for the 2013 and 2014 accounts tabulated inside this link: http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/fulham-penthouse-and-pavement.html You might want to double check but I think 2013 was the year before Mr Khan bought the Club and 2014 was his first (and our last in the premiership).
silky this summary might help - Summary of 2103 Accounts Turnover: 13th in league, £73m (down from £79m in 2012) [Gate and matchday: £12m Europa League: £0.2m TV and broadcasting: £49m Sponsorship and commercial: £11m Compensation: £0.1m] Wage bill: 9th highest, £67m (up from £62m in 2012) Wages as proportion of turnover: 92% Loss before tax: £2m (reduced from £18m in 2012) Net debt: £1m Interest payable: £0.3m Highest paid director: Unnamed, £810,000 (Alastair Mackintosh is the chief executive) Summary of 2014 Accounts Turnover 16th highest, £91m (up from £73m in 2013) [Gate and matchday £12m Premier League including TV £67m Sponsorship and commercial £12m Compensation £0.2m] Wage bill Joint 9th highest, £69m (up from £67m in 2013) Wages as proportion of turnover 76% Loss before tax £33m (up from £2m in 2013) Net debt £24m Interest payable £0.3m Highest-paid director Unnamed, £604,000 (Alastair Mackintosh is the chief executive)
