Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 9th. Feb. 2016

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No TTF engaged before Thursday, which is very convenient as I will be in England/travelling on Tuesday and Wednesday.

For info the one currently engaged Thursday is:

VALUE AT RISK

Click name for more details
 
I'll put the rationale up tomorrow but Amy Blair looks a stonking bet tomorrow and Guishan looks very fairly priced too.
 
Giving PHANTOM FLIPPER 3.15 5/1 a big chance of losing the maiden tag tomorrow...not sure the jolly is a 2/5 chance
 
Ardent1965 said:
Giving PHANTOM FLIPPER 3.15 5/1 a big chance of losing the maiden tag tomorrow...not sure the jolly is a 2/5 chance
Click to expand...

Exceed And Excels have 15% strike rate at Southwell, which is average for the jolly. Yours has 10% strike rate for sire.

Fearbusters sire is at 30% at this point in his career which makes him interesting
 
Little double for me tomorrow.

Southwell 15.50 Sir Billy Wright 9/4
Market Rasen 15.05 Sharpasaknife 2/1

8.75/1 double
 
With trainers being creatures of habit a close look at Simply Clever and Clubland in their respective races is my angle.... .....surely they will have marked these events. .......especially the first named, won with a similar type last year... ..20/1 and 6/1 are their current odds
 
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NassauBoard said:
I'll put the rationale up tomorrow but Amy Blair looks a stonking bet tomorrow and Guishan looks very fairly priced too.
Click to expand...


Right,

Guishan is 3 from 11 on the surface, with another 3 places, and she really caught my eye last time out when travelling strongly at Wolverhampton and not finding much when asked to pick up off the home turn. She didn't get much room in the run, and I think we can put that down as a race to get her ready for a return to Southwell (it was over 5 furlongs on a surface she hasn't won on). Now she is a couple of pounds better off in the handicap, and the extra trip will suit. I expect her to be ridden prominently and I think she is primed for today.

The other one is a sire stats thing, Amy Blair is by Captain Gerrard who is a proven sire of Southwell horses (24% strike rate) and this horse looks very well handicapped for a good winter on the sand. Yard in form and the money has come for her too.
 
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One at Southwell got my attention.

2.45 Sir Pitt, absent 1954 days (really ? 5 and a bit years ?)

I expect the phrase "needs the run" is apt here ...
However, I see Sir Pitt is tipped and money has come for it (2nd FAV), but how can people be anywhere near confident after such an absence ?

Any thoughts ?
 
Weald of Kent 2.45@Southwell

Just watched the replay of last weeks C&D win, looked impressive.
Under a penalty today and upped in class, but the nature of that victory gives me some confidence that it can go in again.
 
SimonJ said:
One at Southwell got my attention.

2.45 Sir Pitt, absent 1954 days (really ? 5 and a bit years ?)

I expect the phrase "needs the run" is apt here ...
However, I see Sir Pitt is tipped and money has come for it (2nd FAV), but how can people be anywhere near confident after such an absence ?

Any thoughts ?
Click to expand...

its been jumping hasn't it? So should be fit from that
 
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