The 2016 Triumph Hurdle

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OddDog

OddDog

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Jun 2, 2011
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The 2016 Triumph Hurdle

The Triumph Hurdle is the first race on the Friday of the festival and is open to 4 year-olds only. It is run over 2 miles 1 furlong on the new course with 8 flights of hurdles to be jumped. The race was moved to Cheltenham in 1965 and was sponsored for many years by The Daily Express, from 1997-2002 by The Elite Racing Club and since 2002 by JCB. Obviously there are no multiple winners of the race and the most successful trainer down the years has been Nicky Henderson with 5 winners (most recently with Zaynar in 2009 and Soldatino in 2010).

As of January 26th we have a fairly open market, despite a ridiculously short favourite (Bet365 prices):

Ivanovich Gorbatov 3/1
Gibralfaro 12/1
Sceau Royal, Who Dares Wins, Fixe Le Kap 14/1
Zubayr, Apples Jade, Outspoken 16/1
20/1 Bar

I think we have not seen many serious contenders thus far due to the prevailing heavy ground this winter. Ivanovich Gorbatov (who painted a decent picture by the way, but I prefer Ivan Shishkin) won a maiden hurdle over Christmas at Leopardstown, beating a Ricci/Mullins/Walsh filly, Let’s Dance, quite nicely and the race has thrown up a couple of subsequent winners. 3/1 favourite on that evidence seems pretty skinny to me. Alan King has, as always, some decent prospects. Gibralfaro followed up his Kempton maiden win with victory over Paul Nicholls Connetable at Ascot and is clearly heading in the right direction (some shrewd judges are on at 16s). Sceaux Royal has also done nothing wrong but, being owned by Munir, will likely have Jacob on his back and can therefore be excluded.

This Saturday’s trial at Cheltenham should offer more clues, with 2 runners apiece for Henderson and Nicholls, Mr Ponsonby’s Who Dares Wins for Alan King, Wolf of Windlesham and a Mullins runner (Allblak Des Places) meeting a very good yardstick in Duke Of Medina.

We also have the Adonis (end of Feb, just 20 days before the Triumph) and the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (Feb 6th) which will go a long way towards shaping this market.

Still plenty of value in this if you have heard a whisper ……………………………….


The 2016 Cheltenham Festival Megathread
 
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Nice write up Oddy.Probably my least favourite graded race at the festival.Happy enough to top up at the bar whilst this one is going on unless there is something I seriously fancy.
 
That's very true Oddy looks wise open at the moment but we will know more in a couple of weeks.Could be one of the only races Willie has nothing in.He doesn't have a good record in this race also.There could be a Countrywide Flame lurking in there at a tastey price.
 
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This race is like marmite, I think, as some like Ste (and Davy Russell!) are not big fans but I always enjoy it. I think it's probably because it is often wide-open and you have a mixture of horses in there who have either been on the go since the late summer months or have only had one or two runs over hurdles.
Last year's renewal produced a great finish whilst who can forget how impressively OUR CONOR won this in 2013.

We may not have seen this year's winner yet, of course, on the track but, from what I've seen so far I think, at the current prices, the two I like are GIBRALFARO and SCEAU ROYAL - both trained by Alan King of course. It's not a race I will be having a bet on until the day, however.
 
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Was looking through the entries for Saturday’s ‘Triumph Hurdle Trial’ (cor blimey what an imaginatively monikered heat that is) and I see that following just 2 runs Mr Ponsonby’s Who Dares Wins is already perched on 148. That an amazingly high rating for a 4YO who has had just 2 runs. To put that into some context you need to review Binocular and Zarkandar (who it could be claimed have been the best 2 UK trained juveniles of recent terms). Binocular was rated 152 AFTER finishing 2nd in the ‘Supreme Novices’ and the winning Aintree’s Grade 1 whereas Zarkandar was handicapped at 151 AFTER being successful in the ‘Triumph’ and Aintree’s Grade 1. The handicapper obviously thinks hugely of Mr Ponsonby’s charge and, in allocating him 148, is prepared to take absolutely no chances with him.

Because he’s owned by the forum’s 2nd favourite owner Who Dares Wins obviously has the heart of the forum on his side and its going to be fascinating to see if he can maintain this mark, or even improve on it, at the weekend.
 
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Current Timeform Ratings (pre today). Will be interesting to see how today affects this table

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They really don't seem to rate the speckled one's runner yet it's 3/1 fav,me confusey:emoticon-0138-think
 
It's the BIG "P" Ste. Means that although he hasn't performed to a level beyond 129 he is capable of so much more.
 
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O'Briens runner is a very bad price favourite now, but the double figures he was right after he beat Ricci's hotspot at Christmas was probably a tad generous so I can see why he has shortened since. Runs at the big Leopardstown Hennesey meeting, where he's odds on to beat the same filly again. For a debut over hurdles he looks very accomplished to my eye, and he beat her far easier than the margin suggested. Could never see her reverse that form, so in saying he's a bad price now he's only likely to go shorter if he follows up!

I think it'd be nice to see the English / Irish form tested against each other. Willie Mullins has one of his entered at Cheltenham, runs in Flys colours, probably just being used as a sighter for him but could help us gauge. Worth noting this one was a pretty lucky winner on debut against an OBrien runner, which leads me to thinking OBriens number one may be very smart. If the Mullins runner goes close to winning on Saturday it could be ominous for the English Triumph horses!
 
Only saw this yesterday but the somewhat startling fact is that Racing Post Ratings assessed the performance of Mr Henderson’s Fixe Le Kap, when he won at Warwick this day week, to be 13, I say 13, pounds above any other juvenile performance so far in term 2015/16. That is an astounding amount, troops. Those bookie chappies certainly don’t concur as they still have Fixe Le Kap at a double digit price for the ‘Triumph’ – 12/1. Who’s right?!? You pay your money and you takes your choice. The one thing you can guarantee though is that Fixe Le Kap will be even better come the Festival as he'll have the benefit of both Mr Henderson's magic hands and brilliant brain from now till 'tapes up'.

In other 4YO news I see that Mr Ponsonby’s Who Dares Wins was dropped 2 lbs by the assessor after Cheltenham last week to 146. He was also eased by those bookie chappies to 25/1 for the old ‘Triumph’. Personally I don’t think Mr Ponsonby’s animal did that much wrong at Cheltenham and think this a bit of an overreaction as the ground wasn’t ideal, he was probably in front too long and you could say he was the ‘moral’ winner anyway – gave 7 lbs to the first home and was only beaten 4 lengths. Still a leading contender in this heat in my book.
 
OddDog said:
if he hacks up at Pau tomorrow it could be a different story. <ok>
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What’s the betting that if he does the old boy is quickly snapped up by either Rich Richtea, Gigginstown or that J.P. chap?!? Don't think you'd get a big price about that!
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
What’s the betting that if he does the old boy is quickly snapped up by either Rich Richtea, Gigginstown or that J.P. chap?!? Don't think you'd get a big price about that!
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Ricci never really buys finished articles though, Giggy don't buy much other than Irish pointers/store horses, but you could be right with the third! Simon Munir worth a shout too!
 
Its looking a weak enough race this year and I have had a decent week so accordingly have had a decent each way ante post wager on SEVEN KINGDOMS. If he wins like he did at Kempton he will surely be close to being favourite despite coming from an unfashionable yard. His debut performance was something to behold and at 33/1 he looks worth taking a speculative punt on.
 
8 runners go to post for today's GAIN Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown. The Grade 1 even should go a long way to identifying the leading juvenile in Ireland and the short-priced favourite is also the current favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, Aiden (Joseph) O'Brien's Ivanovich Gorbatov. Re-opposing are 2 of the horses he beat over Christmas, Let's Dance and Lagostovegas, together with 3 horses beaten by Apples Jade on boxing day (Jer's Girl, Footpad and Rashaan). Anything other than a comfortable victory for the favourite will see a significant shake up in the Triumph market.
 
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