Daily Racing Thread Sunday 4th Oct. 2015

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
It's Arc day !!!!!!!!

Sunday's Meetings

Longchamp
Flat 9 Races 1:00-5:50p.m.
Huntingdon
NH 7 Races 1:50-5:10p.m.
Kelso
NH 7 Races 2:05-5:30p.m.
Uttoxeter
NH 7 Races 2:15-5:40p.m.
Tipperary
Mixed Flat/NH 8 Races 2:00-5:45p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
The Longchamp card starts with the Prix Marcel Boussac - a Group 1 race for 2YO fillies over a mile. At the head of the market we have pretty much joint-favourites, Pascal Bary's Antonoe and Aiden O'Brien's Ballydoyle both around the 13/8 mark. Ballydoyle has been struggling somewhat to live up to her name and was certainly disappointing when beaten by stablemate Minding in the Moyglare last time out. She was outbattled in the last 100 yards that day and I'm not altogether certain the step up to a mile will suit her. Her full sister Misty For Me won this 5 years ago (beating future Arc winner Danedream in the process) after an equally inauspicious 2YO season so it could be dangerous to write her off, but I think she might find one or two too good here and makes no appeal at the odds. The price for Antonoe is equally unappealing, despite her being 2 from 2. She easily dispatched her field on debut at Deauville in August before winning a G3 at Chantilly last time out but at such cramped odds I am prepared to take her on.

There are 2 in the field at bigger prices who I like the look of.

Firstly, at around 10/1, the Al Shaqab filly Qemah, who was thrashed by Antonoe on debut at Deauville but absolutely dotted up hard-held at Longchamp at the beginning of September:

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On the same card at Longchamp that day, Left Hand took the maiden for unraced fillies and, also around the 10/1 mark, she could also play a big part here if she has progressed from debut. She did it very nicely under hands and heels from Maxim Guyon and there looks to be plenty more to come from her:

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Those 2 against the field for me, but will wait to see the market develop before the race before placing a wager.
 
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By the time Sunday’s football kicks off, 1/6 Dick Advocaat will probably have collected for those interested in the “Next Manager Out” betting in the Premier League. That will return Brendan Rodgers to favouritism...

In the three horse race at Goodison Park, 9/5 Everton will surely push Rodgers nearer to his P45 as the Yanks that own the club have given him more than enough rope (and money) to hang himself.
 
Treve would be a confident choice for the Arc if she had her favoured going at Longchamp!
 
she has won five times on good ground LM so wouldn't be to considered about the ground
 
Have no fear on Treve lads. It won't be that quick, she'll handle it OK :)

Could have done with more rain for my 33/1 antepost poke FOUND I suspect, and the draws not great but hey, if there good enough they'll win. You shouldn't really use the draw as an excuse in my view. Really hope FREE EAGLE runs a big race. This is a brillian horse, was bumped off the track last time out and believe me we ain't seen the best of this lad. At around 20/1 he now looks the each-way value to me and don't be surprised should he give the wondermare most to do. The 3 yo pair behind her in the market look rancid value to me.

My best of the day runs at Tipperary in the Like a Butterfly novice chase. VICONTE DU NOYER 9/4. Bet of the day :)
 
I don't think the ground will be an excuse for anyone tomorrow as it will look to be good racing ground, even Gleneagles would have been allowed to run on such ground and he is not allowed out to play often. I am disappointed that GH's draw is not better as it does disadvantage but he will still ensure Treve has to pull something out to win and New Bay will do exactly the same. Very sadly the race does lack depth aside from the top three in the betting and the only value I can see is a speculative EW on Tapestry.
 
Bluesky9 said:
I don't think the ground will be an excuse for anyone tomorrow as it will look to be good racing ground, even Gleneagles would have been allowed to run on such ground and he is not allowed out to play often. I am disappointed that GH's draw is not better as it does disadvantage but he will still ensure Treve has to pull something out to win and New Bay will do exactly the same. Very sadly the race does lack depth aside from the top three in the betting and the only value I can see is a speculative EW on Tapestry.
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Funny you should say that Blue. I have a soft spot for Tapestry and it wouldn't surprise me if she ran well.
 
Tested and Buchasson at Tipperary double pays about 9/2.

Longchamp 3.45 San Cesio 25/1. Small bet.

Longchamp 4.50 Make Believe 6/1 1pt ew.

Keith Earls 1st try Ireland v Italy also worth a dart in my book.

Good luck all.
 
New Bay for me in the Arc. Backed him on Friday at 13/2, won't be that much on the PMU I shouldn't think?
 
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We're off to the Arc in the morning; by car this time. Plan is to leave at 8 am and arrive at the car park between 11 and 11.30 am. Should give us plenty of leeway. Hope I don't regret this idea. If it turns out not to be a good idea then next time it will be back to a 15 min drive to a train station, train to Paris, tube to Auteuil, free bus to course. Not so flexible but we'll see.
 
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Ron said:
We're off to the Arc in the morning; by car this time. Plan is to leave at 8 am and arrive at the car park between 11 and 11.30 am. Should give us plenty of leeway. Hope I don't regret this idea. If it turns out not to be a good idea then next time it will be back to a 15 min drive to a train station, train to Paris, tube to Auteuil, free bus to course. Not so flexible but we'll see.
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Have a good time Ron!!
 
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4.50 LONGCHAMP- LIMATO- 15/8

My absolute nap of the day!! His form is rock solid will get his good ground showed he can stay the distance will be very hard to beat
 
The punters at Longchamp have not been done too many favours by the rearrangement of the running order to put the juvenile races first and second. As is almost always the case, the home team is made up of lightly-raced individuals who cannot really be backed on the basis of their form.

In the opening Prix Marcel Boussac, the best form comes from Ireland in the guise of Turret Rocks and Ballydoyle, but it is anybody’s guess what regard Antonoe, Qemah and Left Hand are held in by the locals.

The following Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère features a strong visiting contingent with First Selection, Galileo Gold, Herald The Dawn, Ventura Storm and Johannes Vermeer all having good claims if the home team’s Attendu and Ultra are not up to scratch.

The Prix de l’Opera unfortunately does not feature Ribbons because of the state of the ground. Of the home team, last year’s victor We Are has to be respected although her form this season does not make her chance look good. I would not disregard Freddie Head’s Queen’s Jewel, a big disappointment when last seen and coming here fresh. Diamondsandrubies has disappointed in both her last two starts and Covert Love needs to return to winning ways dropped back to ten furlongs after York. John Gosden has two good chances with Star Of Seville, the mount of William Buick, and JAZZI TOP (6/1), under Frankie Dettori trying to emulate her mother’s 2003 victory.

I still think that the Arc is a three horse race: if Treve fluffs her lines, Epsom hero Golden Horn or Chantilly hero New Bay will be the beneficiary. If the race were being run on British ‘Good to Firm’ ground, Golden Horn would be odds on, irrespective of the draw.

With Mecca’s Angel out, the Prix de l’Abbaye is up for grabs. The presence of Richard Hannon’s two year old Gutaifan in receipt of lumps of weight is fascinating but the last winning juvenile was Sigy in 1978. Can Sole Power finally find his old spark? Can Move In Time repeat? Or will it be quick enough for Goldream.

The Prix de la Forêt looks quite underwhelming with the likes of Ervedya and Karakontie declining to take up their entries; however, this does represent an excellent opportunity for Toormore to pick up a Group 1 prize as we know that he is a seven furlong horse. Limato steps up to the top class after victory at Doncaster but it may be best to side with this year’s Poulains winner MAKE BELIEVE (7/1), a huge disappointment on fast ground at Royal Ascot and not seen since but he is the only horse to beat New Bay this year (before today).

As I am on the first Eurostar, hopefully it will not be subject to delays going out caused by the peasants at Calais. If I can get on the WiFi at Longchamp, I will check in during the afternoon.
 
Good luck QM. Would like to say see you there but as we don't know what each other look like I would say that's about as likely as England rugby team progressing in the World Cup.
 
Well i shall be recording all of todays racing as my daughter is getting christened today @ 2pm then off to a golf club for the after bit. (my wife booked the day! <laugh>)

3.40 Longchamp- Muthmir

For the first time this year I am backing against Maarek (on the ground basis) Got him at 10/1 last week so had a bit of the ew now with MA a NR he stands a huge chance altho on this ground i fancy him to have beaten her anyway! His goodwood perfomance was top draw carrying that amount of weight and altho disppointing lto he didnt like the ground and got bit wound up before so as long as he can stay calmer and jump out well he will take alot of the beating
 
Morning all
Have a great day if you are off to longchamp. Backed Free eagle ew and in the abbaye one of my old faves stepper point runs with Smullen on board. I know it's been pricewised, but don't let that put you off , Steps should run a big race.
Cheers!
 
"peasants in Calais"

An interesting description of desperate people who have been plunged into taking desperate measures. Many of whom have risked life and limb on their journey, their plight in many cases caused by "Western intervention".

Enjoy your day in France QM on your cosy Eurostar with **** all more to worry about than the availability of sodding wi-fi....!
 
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stick said:
"peasants in Calais"

An interesting description of desperate people who have been plunged into taking desperate measures. Many of whom have risked life and limb on their journey, their plight in my cases caused by "Western intervention".

Enjoy your day in France QM on your cosy Eurostar with **** all more to worry about than the availability of sodding wi-fi....!
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I think he means all the plebs who are going across on the ferry.
 
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