In the opener on Arc Trials Day, the Prix Du Petit Couvert, it is hard to fancy Goldream with a Group 1 penalty and much of the rest of the field are the usual local suspects like Catcall and blinkered first time Rangali. Last year’s victor Mirza comes here on the back of an unplaced effort, so could the three year old Profitable cause an upset here?
In the first of the Arc Trials, the Prix Niel, Ol’ Man River would need to show markedly improved form to feature after a long layoff, as would Listed winner Ming Dynasty. This does seem to rest between the two market leaders and with Countermeasure in as a pacemaker, New Bay must enhance his Arc prospects at the expense of Erupt.
French heroine Treve returns from a rest since June in the Prix Vermeille and faces a field dominated by three year olds (one of which is her pacemaker). Sea Calisi was a close third in the Yorkshire Oaks and might prove to be a good yardstick to measure the form rather than Arabian Queen, who ventures into unknown territory after her tactical victory at York (official rating raised 7lb to 116 for that). Diamondsandrubies has to put her poor showing last time behind her, so perhaps the best prospect for an upset is the Aga Khan’s Candarliya, who has run up a sequence in lesser contests but could find the Arc favourite race rusty and capitalise.
Two older fillies defected from the Vermeille to avoid Treve and take on Postponed in the Prix Foy. Dolniya is unquestionably the better of the two as Biano Hope is really a Group 2 filly in a Group 2 race containing two Group 1 performers. The presence of a pacemaker for Luca Cumani’s King George winner Postponed augurs well for him in a race where there are no Group 1 penalties making it read like a match.
The mile Prix Du Moulin looks like a fascinating encounter with three of the better three year olds taking on three good older horses. Esoterique has to be respected after accounting for Territories, Wild Chief and Karakontie in the Prix Jacques Le Marois; and it would be reasonable to expect Territories to account for Dutch Connection again after the Prix Jean Prat. Ervedya was turned over by Amazing Maria last time but has an excellent chance here to return to winning ways, although AROD’s Sussex Stakes second to Solow is the best form available and Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt can win if the ground does not come up too soft.
Is it allowed to tip against Aidan O’Brien’s runners in the National Stakes (4:15)? If so, I nominate Jim Bolger’s Herald The Dawn, who has done nothing wrong to date. I liked Richard Fahey’s Birchwood at Newmarket but he has run poorly twice on easy ground so it may not be his day at The Curragh.
