Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 25th. August 2015

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Tuesday's Meetings

Chepstow
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:00p.m.
Brighton
Flat 7 Races 2:15-5:15p.m.
Ballinrobe (E)
N/H 8 Races 4:25-8:00p.m.
Newbury (E)
Flat 6 Races 4:40-7:40p.m.
Fontwell (E)
N/H 7 Races 4:50-7:50p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
I suggested this a few weeks ago but just to back it up. If you ignore form and just blindly back all De Sousa rides you will save alot of valuable time and make a decent profit. 116 rides since the first of August. If you'd put a fiver on each one you'd currently be £200 in profit. Plus you'd be celebrating 22 winners. Whose had 22 winners on here in the first 24 days of August??
 
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We think along the same lines Fusion except I chose to back Jamie Spencer throughout the whole of August, the result being I don't have £200 in my pocket but and I have been through 3 tellies and now have an asbo as my neighbours complained about the strange words ' you f****n hold up cretin' being shouted at half an hour intervals, interspersed with ' not every f*****n horse you sit on is Dancing Brave you Idiot' throughout the afternoon.
 
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6.00 Ballinrobe THE INFORMER 5/1 (B365)
I was at Downpatrick a few weeks ago and bumped into a guy who was of the opinion this lad was going to go very close as he'd been campaigned very 'sympathetically' nudge, nudge, wink, wink etc As it turned out he came second, beat by one who was clearly even more considerately handled during his previous handicap runs! The selection however travelled real well and whilst beaten easily into second they drew well clear of the rest. He was also the subject of a decent on course gamble, from 8s to 5s and I think he could recoup losses here. Top pilot young Townend booked is another positive indicator.

Edit: time wrong
 
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6.10 Newbury. FASHIONABLE SPIRIT. 9-2 WIN.
6.40 Newbury. GOLD PRINCE. 11-2 WIN.
7.10 Newbury. ROSA'S CANTINA 7-1 WIN.
 
beeforsalmon said:
8.00 Ballinrobe THE INFORMER 5/1 (B365)
I was at Downpatrick a few weeks ago and bumped into a guy who was of the opinion this lad was going to go very close as he'd been campaigned very 'sympathetically' nudge, nudge, wink, wink etc As it turned out he came second, beat by one who was clearly even more considerately handled during his previous handicap runs! The selection however travelled real well and whilst beaten easily into second they drew well clear of the rest. He was also the subject of a decent on course gamble, from 8s to 5s and I think he could recoup losses here. Top pilot young Townend booked is another positive indicator.
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I can't see this winning the 8.00. But I'm going to back it in the 6pm! Thanks for the tip and good luck.
 
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hi people--been some great tipping/info on here last few days -well done all , superb info!

i think brendan powell has a couple of live ones today --just like on sunday where he had a flat/nh double--same again today --Kallisha gets her ground in the 5 40 at newbury , and in the last at fontwell Keychain has his chance in conditions that may not suit the others...
 
fusion said:
I suggested this a few weeks ago but just to back it up. If you ignore form and just blindly back all De Sousa rides you will save alot of valuable time and make a decent profit. 116 rides since the first of August. If you'd put a fiver on each one you'd currently be £200 in profit. Plus you'd be celebrating 22 winners. Whose had 22 winners on here in the first 24 days of August??
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Good point but tbf its come from a couple of big price winners could have achieved thst profit from backing his 50/1 shot.
 
Just a fancy,

4 00 Chepstow - Powerful Wind 16/1 e/w, shame Swendab is a non runner as would of been 1,2,3 but then again it should probably either win or just come last.

Has not beaten a rival in it's last 3 starts, subsequently been dropped to a mark of 75 now. Has won off higher in the past. Frenchy now takes the ride, I'm a big fan of Royston Ffrench tbh. Anyway pretty tough race where anyone can win, but Powerful Wind has a 100% strike rate over course and distance - 2 out of 2, only negative is I'm not sure it will like the ground, looking at it he prefers good to firm, and the going is heavy-soft. But don't really understand why Harris wouldn't just scratch him run him elsewhre, lose again and then go back to Chepstow and bid for 3/3 on proper ground with likely his last winning mark (73). So i don't know, but i like French, he's 2/2 over c&d, ground is an unknown but i'm taking a gamble @ 16/1 anyway. One to add in the notebook if it loses anyway for when firm ground comes and if it goes back to Chepstow.
 
One more fancy, I pretty much back all of Ivory's horse regardless and i reckon he'll have 2 winners today but then again i fancy him to have 2/3 yesterday and they all ran pretty average. But anyway, Secret Bird in the 2:00 Chepstow @ 6/1. Don't understand why he's not favourite, it's a very weak race and on it's last start and only it's second start he finished 4th and was only beat 9 lengths by Accra Beach who is rated 84, and the 2nd is now rated 75. Don't understand why the Hannon horse is favorite, still a maiden after 12 starts and hasn't even been beaten by anything that good or highly rated. Two A Carroll newcomers are dangers but then again he doesn't have that many first time out winners and one of them is 5 and only just making his debut.

Once again though the ground is an unknown and could mean anything win, but at 6/1 I'm taking the chance because Secret Bird should be winning this by 3-4 lengths
 
fusion said:
I suggested this a few weeks ago but just to back it up. If you ignore form and just blindly back all De Sousa rides you will save alot of valuable time and make a decent profit. 116 rides since the first of August. If you'd put a fiver on each one you'd currently be £200 in profit. Plus you'd be celebrating 22 winners. Whose had 22 winners on here in the first 24 days of August??
Click to expand...

I think this De Sousa stat is based on extremely flimsy foundations. If the close finish in ‘The International’ had gone the other way then the £200 profit would have turned, at a stroke, into a £50 loss! Furthermore, to uphold this level of return he will have to continue to ride 50/1 winners each and every month...which just ain’t going to happen. If De Sousa continues to ride the number of winners that he is doing then his runners are going to be massively over bet by punters (like what happens with ‘in form’ trainers) and go off at much shorter prices than they should. No system (apart from the Coronation Street one) lasts the test of time as punters will simply over bet any qualifiers from it which, of course, shortens the prices, shortens the profits and ultimately turns them into losses.

Meanwhile, I’ve checked my roguedar in for a service and overhaul. Impulsive American was shortened from 4’s to 2/1 but proved far too keen and had nothing left at the old business end. Still worth watching though as I’m sure those terrible old rogues are up to something re this one.

Good luck all.
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
I think this De Sousa stat is based on extremely flimsy foundations. If the close finish in ‘The International’ had gone the other way then the £200 profit would have turned, at a stroke, into a £50 loss! Furthermore, to uphold this level of return he will have to continue to ride 50/1 winners each and every month...which just ain’t going to happen. If De Sousa continues to ride the number of winners that he is doing then his runners are going to be massively over bet by punters (like what happens with ‘in form’ trainers) and go off at much shorter prices than they should. No system (apart from the Coronation Street one) lasts the test of time as punters will simply over bet any qualifiers from it which, of course, shortens the prices, shortens the profits and ultimately turns them into losses.

Meanwhile, I’ve checked my roguedar in for a service and overhaul. Impulsive American was shortened from 4’s to 2/1 but proved far too keen and had nothing left at the old business end. Still worth watching though as I’m sure those terrible old rogues are up to something re this one.

Good luck all.
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I see the pipes are sending a similar type to Newbury today in the 6.40, Honeymoon Cocktail. Seems to have decent form in France. I'd be surprised if it doesn't shorten from the current odds of 10/1. I'm going to have a small ew wager given the current stable form.
 
Al Kazeem said:
I see the pipes are sending a similar type to Newbury today in the 6.40, Honeymoon Cocktail. Seems to have decent form in France. I'd be surprised if it doesn't shorten from the current odds of 10/1. I'm going to have a small ew wager given the current stable form.
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Yep, and he had quite decent form in France as well – winning twice and earning over £60,000 in prizemoney. I do wonder though what ‘improvement’ they can get out of Honeymoon Cocktail though as 83 does look about right. Still with them you never know what they are capable of. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...

Newbury’s going though (currently ‘soft’ and heavy rain forecast this afternoon) creates a lot of uncertainty about things and it’s a bit to ‘iffy’ for me today re this one. The ‘Daily Star’ though obviously think he’ll dot up as Sporting Life as showing that they’ve napped Honeymoon Cocktail.
 
Beef Stew and dumplings. 9/10.

Quick quiz quest. Who rode Barrington Hills’ first ever winner over hurdles??? There’s a ‘Barney Bonus’ for the first correct answer. Clue – we ain’t talking about some nondescript racing type here.
 
Total random guess Barney, Lester Piggott?

Question on rules regarding non runners. If you did an each way double and the two races ended up as four runner races is your stake regarded then as a win double or is half of it a non-runner?
 
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