There is no rain forecast between now and the race, so the going will be at least good; therefore, both will run. O’Brien is one of the biggest bullsh*ters in the history of the sport. The ratings say that Golden Horn is several pounds better than Gleneagles and I see no reason to believe that the Derby winner will have regressed or the Ballydoyle colt will improve significantly trying a new trip. In a five or six runner race, therefore, Golden Horn should be an odds-on favourite to beat the Guineas winner.
What were the ratings when Tapestry brought down the unbeaten Taghrooda last year at the meeting? What were the ratings when Oratorio (sp) brought down the unbeaten Motivator in the Eclipse? The highest rated horse always wins isn't that right lol lol
Evening, Wooly: that mile Gr.2 at Saratoga caught my eye (11.25 our time), and I made Mshawish the likeliest winner. He's got Meydan form behind Solow which certainly looks good enough for a US Gr.2, and Velazquez is very good round here. Needs holding up, so No.1 may not be the perfect draw, but he should have the tactical pace to get a clear run. The older horses mostly look regressive. The real worry is trying to fathom out the market. The early Betfair prices are betting to about 200%, and unless you can manipulate a laptop, watch the PM prices and drink brandy all at the same time around 11.23 (I can't), it gets quite difficult. Worth watching though, I'd say,.
You are perfectly right to suggest that the ratings are no guarantee that one horse is better than another; however, one horse has achieved its rating over the distance that is being contested, whilst the other (with a lesser rating) has never raced over the distance. Pure and simple logic would suggest that the latter (Gleneagles) is a very bad bet. If you want to back Gleneagles, I am sure that you will find bookies willing to accommodate you. When Gleneagles wins, you can come back and chastise me for saying that Gleneagles will not win and I will accept that I was wrong, but the pre-race evidence says that Gleneagles has no chance.
Just a small Trixie for extra interest Highland Reel, Euro Charlene and Maverick Wave but not bad racing over there tonight
If Golden Horn takes as long to get going as he did in the Eclipse he could be in bother. And to say Gleneagles has 'no chance' seems slightly OTT but you know more about Flat racing and ratings than me.
As you say, Golden Horn had to make the running in the Eclipse and then had to quicken uphill. That will not be the case at York as the owner bought Dick Doughtywylie to run as a pacemaker, so Dettori will be able to sit behind him and use his turn of foot on the flat Knavesmire straight when he chooses. If I offered you a race where Horse A was rated 130, price 8/11, and Horse B was rated 124, price 7/2, which one would you want to be on? Horse A is a course and distance winner and Horse B has never ventured beyond a mile. It was OTT of me to say that he has “no chance” because obviously he does have some chance as a Classic winner from a top yard. Golden Horn could have an off day (even top horses have them) but Gleneagles would still have to beat Time Test and the other theoretically inferior runners who are proven at the trip.
