Daily Racing Thread Monday 20th. July 2015

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Monday's Meetings

Ayr
Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:10p.m.
Cartmel
N/H 7 Races 2:10-5:25p.m.
Beverley (E)
Flat 7 Races 5:40-8:40p.m.
Ballinrobe (E)
Flat 7 Races 6:00-9:00p.m.
Windsor (E)
Flat 6 Races 6:20-8:50p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
One at Ayr jumps off the page but i'm just not sure what they're playing at yet.

Simon Crawford sends just one runner across the pond. Blue Cannon hasn't run since October last year when competing in Ireland over obstacles for Noel Meade. Currently 9/1, this horse now runs off a mark a few lbs below it's last winning level and has an extra albs coming off as well. Crawford does well at Ayr and i'd be surprised if a change of scenery and a nice low mark to work with doesn't lead to reasonable improvement soon enough. The fly in the ointment is the jockey. I know nothing about this claimer and it worries me slightly that the yard would put their faith and hard earned in the hands of a relatively inexperienced young jockey who's never won a race to my knowledge.

Could be a case of ship or bust but at 9/1 i think this may have a chance. I'd be vastly more confident if they have a late in the day jockey change once the connections cash is on.
 
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Interesting that English sends Cash or Casualty & Ask Dad over to Ayr today, both about 5/1. He doesn't usually send many over, only sent 6 over in the past 5 years, and has only had a third so not sure about the quality of the races, but surely worth 2 singles and a win double, on form both have a big chance anyway
 
4:10 Ayr - Silver Rime 14/1 ew boasts four wins at the course has a decent jockey up and on a decent mark so could well outrun it's odds
 
Having thrown a sickie today (a real one, nothing to do with wanting to watch the golf or anything) I am looking forward to watching some summer jumps racing from Cartmel - a lovely little course, very picturesque and always a good crowd there. One of those Monday meetings where you just know AP McCoy would be there if he were still riding :)

The handicap chase at 4.55 looks a real cracker with a full 23lbs between top and bottom weight and all 8 runners in with some sort of chance (please, no non-runner here today, d'you hear?). With 4 of the 8 previous C&D winners I think it is likely that today's victor will be one of those 4. Top weight Swaledale Lad has too much weight for me, even with Harry Challoner taking off 3lbs. Fantasy King was upped 6lbs for winning here and then unseated at the 2nd fence next time out at Worcester. I think he may have profited from a canny ride when winning at Cartmel and I'm not sure he can defy the rise today. On previous course running it should be close between Sergeant Pick and Toledo Gold but preference is for the latter, who comes here on the back of an excellent weight-carrrying victory over C&D a month ago and can score again today off a 4lb higher mark.
 
One today that catches the eye is in the 4.40 Ayr in POLAR FOREST. My reasoning behind this is that the form figures in the last 7 races read 9131311. Of those 7, the four wins have come on soft ground which at the moment is good to soft, soft in places and more rain forecast. Also jockey Jacob Butterfield has won two of these races so horse and jockey get on well. I know this is a step up in grade but this one is shouting out at me to back it and at the current 16/1 I will do so e/w. Has had a nice 66 day break too.
 
Has anyone seen that William Hill are going to pay £50 million to anyone (prize shared if more than one person is successful) who predicts, in the correct order, the 1-20 in next terms Premier League. Costs £2 a line and you can have up to 250, I say 250, goes.

Probably one of those things that sounds not that difficult but in practice is next to impossible. I’ll give it a go though. The Arsenal will obviously reclaim ‘our’ trophy but now comes the difficult bit...working out who will finish 2nd-20th.
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Has anyone seen that William Hill are going to pay £50 million to anyone (prize shared if more than one person is successful) who predicts, in the correct order, the 1-20 in next terms Premier League. Costs £2 a line and you can have up to 250, I say 250, goes.

Probably one of those things that sounds not that difficult but in practice is next to impossible. I’ll give it a go though. The Arsenal will obviously reclaim ‘our’ trophy but now comes the difficult bit...working out who will finish 2nd-20th.
Click to expand...

You've lost already then!
 
It was 10000/1 for the last about 5 years as I did it 5 years ago thinking it was good odds. Shows how much they have made from the bet over the last 5 years
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Has anyone seen that William Hill are going to pay £50 million to anyone (prize shared if more than one person is successful) who predicts, in the correct order, the 1-20 in next terms Premier League. Costs £2 a line and you can have up to 250, I say 250, goes.

Probably one of those things that sounds not that difficult but in practice is next to impossible. I’ll give it a go though. The Arsenal will obviously reclaim ‘our’ trophy but now comes the difficult bit...working out who will finish 2nd-20th.
Click to expand...
I tried to find out the number of possible permutations and got the answer 2,432,902,008,176,640,000. I think one would have to reduce those odds, initially by selecting those teams that could conceivably fill the first 5 places and perming any 5 of those to finish in any order (eg any 5 from 10 to finish in any order = 30,240). Then ............... I give up. 25million to 1 is crap odds I reckon.
 
OddDog said:
Having thrown a sickie today (a real one, nothing to do with wanting to watch the golf or anything) I am looking forward to watching some summer jumps racing from Cartmel - a lovely little course, very picturesque and always a good crowd there. One of those Monday meetings where you just know AP McCoy would be there if he were still riding :)

The handicap chase at 4.55 looks a real cracker with a full 23lbs between top and bottom weight and all 8 runners in with some sort of chance (please, no non-runner here today, d'you hear?). With 4 of the 8 previous C&D winners I think it is likely that today's victor will be one of those 4. Top weight Swaledale Lad has too much weight for me, even with Harry Challoner taking off 3lbs. Fantasy King was upped 6lbs for winning here and then unseated at the 2nd fence next time out at Worcester. I think he may have profited from a canny ride when winning at Cartmel and I'm not sure he can defy the rise today. On previous course running it should be close between Sergeant Pick and Toledo Gold but preference is for the latter, who comes here on the back of an excellent weight-carrrying victory over C&D a month ago and can score again today off a 4lb higher mark.
Click to expand...

youve picked a right race there oddy --any of them could win--trying to decipher what or who is hard--notice Dai Burchell has two down the bottom , vinnie the fish riden by his 'go to' jockey robbie dunne and Cruchain with sean bowen booked--he has run here twice , winning a class 4 almost two years ago to the day, and fourth in a class 3 a few months ago--money has come for him , and i would say he may be the danger to your selection..
 
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rudebwoy said:
youve picked a right race there oddy --any of them could win--trying to decipher what or who is hard--notice Dai Burchell has two down the bottom , vinnie the fish riden by his 'go to' jockey robbie dunne and Cruchain with sean bowen booked--he has run here twice , winning a class 4 almost two years ago to the day, and fourth in a class 3 a few months ago--money has come for him , and i would say he may be the danger to your selection..
Click to expand...

<applause>
 
Gona give no way jack another go in the 7.00 at bellytown, given a bad ride lto and kept getting boxed in
 
sorry for your selection --but tha burchell is tight as the proverbial-he wouldnt want to waste diesel...
 
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