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Transfer thread Summer 2015

Discussion in 'Norwich City' started by Walsh.i.am, May 13, 2015.

  1. RiverEndRick

    RiverEndRick Well-Known Member

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    I have been following it, Gruffnuts, and player values do change when a reason for the change. RvW has changed from £3.9m to £3.5m in the past week and some of our other players have changed in the past week as well. Brady has stayed the same in spite of our interest. I use it as the only objective basis for comparison, as subjective guessing values doesn't do it for me. Brady will be an interesting test, I guess.
     
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  2. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    Hat. I appreciate you weren't on the thread earlier, so won't have scrolled back to see the information. So I'll try to be brief and explain why you've misunderstood.

    Each and every club hires consultants (for example Orb Finance) to carry out asset valuations. This is absolutely essential for every club in terms of capital value, profit and loss, but also whether the directors/managers are acting in accordance with their legal obligations. Much like the company people work for will value the computers they use. It's exactly the same concept.

    Transfermarkt is just an information database. Of course Transfermarkt is not used for player valuations by your chairman or any chairman. However, the "asset valuations" are taken from rough data provided by the consultants. There are problems with it - they only use a limited number of variables almost certainly computer generated and often their information is several months out of date. By comparison, when a club purchases a player they will get full, detailed valuation carried out. Ask anyone you know who is involved in football players if you don't believe me. So the information on transfermarkt is a very rough idea of what clubs will have had carried out for each player. BUT, rough as it is, it's the only source that people without inside info have for how our players are considered in pure financial terms. Some information is better than no information, after all.

    And this is borne out by the fact that so many players who are being allowed to leave while in contract with their club are sold pretty close to their asset valuation (transfermarkt's margin of error is rarely more than about 10%, so they obviously have good info). The relationship between asset valuation when a club doesn't want to sell a player still under contract is a little bit more guesswork, but it's usually between 1.5 and 3 times asset valuation where a player has 12months left on their contract (check up the price you paid for Snodgrass). If it's as much as 3 times that usually means the selling club is almost happy to let the player go for nothing by the summer. On longer contracts the price can be as much as 3.5 or 4 times asset valuation. However, the higher the value of the player, the more risk there is and the multiples come down. If you don't believe me, next time you see a transfer price which doesn't really make sense (probably for a club other than your own), check it against the asset valuation and the multiples listed above. It works.

    So it is undoubtedly something of a guessing game based on only rough estimates and the parameters are quite broad. But as I say, it's much better than otherwise having no information at all other than the random figures fans pluck out for their players. Otherwise, you sit there and blindly believe spluttering Bruce every time. If you'd rather just listen to the PR that comes out of your club, fine. But don't expect to receive much patience from people wanting an objective POV and wanting to understand the financial process. After all, it's big business and in the professional era, it's very unlikely that any club will be offering anything other than on-market negotiating starting bids, acceptable to the selling club or not. Anything spouted by your own club in faux apoplexy is simply to appease fans.

    See above. Take it with a pinch of salt and you're right it can be quite out of date. It's best used with hindsight, but at least it gives you a starting point for assessing where a deal is likely to end up or whether a bid is fair.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 9, 2015
  3. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    I think I need to save the above...
     
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  4. JKCanary

    JKCanary Guest

    #1124
  5. Forgot_My_Lines

    Forgot_My_Lines Well-Known Member

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    Bloody hell, all this Brady talk and arguments. He's not even a player I'm that excited about or interested in. He's certainly not worth £7 Million. I'd be annoyed it we payed 5! Any other news? Apart from Murphy link? I'd be amazed if we were genuinely in for him! Surely media games to wind up Ipsh*t fans?
     
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  6. carrabuh

    carrabuh Well-Known Member

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    If only there were some means of working out a players value.:emoticon-0126-nerd:
     
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  7. canary-dave

    canary-dave Well-Known Member

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  8. RiverEndRick

    RiverEndRick Well-Known Member

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    Well Mulumbu hit all the right notes in a welcome to the club interview. The one thing that caught my eye was his description of himself as a "tactical player". I hope that means what I hope it does in terms of him shielding the defence when we haven't got the ball, but moving forward with telling passes and even the odd goal now and then when we do. Tettey can do the former, but doesn't do the latter often enough, IMO.
     
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  9. JKCanary

    JKCanary Guest

    More than anything to me, it sounds like a diplomatic way of saying "I do the dirty work, and am prepared to bend the rules".
     
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  10. RiverEndRick

    RiverEndRick Well-Known Member

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    If you've seen him play, JK, he uses the ball well and can thread balls through to attacking players or score himself. I think a lot of people will be surprised by his game.
     
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  11. JKCanary

    JKCanary Guest

    Oh indeed. From what I remember, you're right in that he has a decent eye for a pass. He's also capable of driving forward.

    Unlike you though, I in fact think most people who have watched him will already be aware of these things.

    I still maintain however, that what he said definitely smacked of "getting results by any means necessary", to me anyway.
     
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  12. RiverEndRick

    RiverEndRick Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough, JK. He will certainly be a physical presence, as any DM should be, but the difference from Tettey is that he's more adept at longer through passes whereas Tettey tends to go for shorter, safer passes. Jerome, Redmond, Hoolahan, Howson and Johnson could all benefit from that.
     
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  13. KIO

    KIO Well-Known Member

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    Just seen couple of Tweets saying signing to be announced today? Well it certainly won't be Brady !
     
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  14. KIO

    KIO Well-Known Member

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    Now off to work, I'll do some digging when I get in and report back ;)
     
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  15. Walsh.i.am

    Walsh.i.am Well-Known Member
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    Good piece on MFW about how NCFC are right to dig their heels in over inflated transfer fees / wages - especially in the light of the current 'saga' surrounding Robbie Brady. (Are three (3) 'derisory' bids enough to constitute a saga? :emoticon-0112-wonde )
    http://norwichcity.myfootballwriter...-are-part-of-the-everyday-canary-vernacular/?

    <ok>
     
    #1135
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  16. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    Well if we're going to announce someone, it surely won't be Brady. Mbokani is about the only rumour that looked a goer, unless it's Clucas or Cousins.
     
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  17. Walsh.i.am

    Walsh.i.am Well-Known Member
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    Virgil van Dijk? :emoticon-0112-wonde
     
    #1137
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  18. marknemo

    marknemo Active Member

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    If we announce anyone today (which I find unlikely) we have done a very good job to keep it quiet!
     
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  19. KIO

    KIO Well-Known Member

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    Well I've spoken to my 'contact' whose 'contact' at Colney says there are whispers but we think mainly 'chinese' ones :emoticon-0114-dull:
     
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  20. JKCanary

    JKCanary Guest

    #1140

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