Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

Or is being manipulated to kill two town.

Think about it, thus far we haven't had a single investigation succeed, or a single meth head kill that was in the interests of the town. Something is screwing up in the background, and I'm now wondering why Obi is suddenly claiming to be town aligned having spent the last three days saying he is not aligned to anyone.

 

Gonna go for a run to clear my heed as I'm well confused now.
I expect less than and I will die tonight though. Just a hunch.

 

OP updated with yesterday's final vote table.

 

hmmmm
The Meth Head - he's on the meth. Hard. Paranoid and tweaking out his supply will only last a day. The meth head will kill one person per night from day 2.

Does it actually say here that the meth head gets to choose who he kills?
Just says he will kill one person per night from Day 2.
Why from Day 2? And he obviously isn't killing any of the targets we ask him to.
Could be its random, but then he killed MITO who had been begging to be killed all day, bit of a coincidence.
Or maybe a player needs to meet certain conditions in order for the meth head to target him.
Also the meth head didn't kill anyone on Day 2 did he? So maybe none of us met those conditions on Day 2, the whole Obi needing Likes thing has got me thinking that the meth head has a similar clause before they can act. Why else kill Funky when we knew him to be town?

 

Would be a fairly **** role if the person didn't get to choose anything! They would basically be just a vanilla townie.

Also Gerrez or Tobes may have been targeted on day 2 hence no kill?

Although I agree that there may be some qualifying criteria either for the meth head to act or for people to qualify to be killed. MITO was voting for loads of people on day 2 and so was Funky, so maybe the meth head kills one of the people who has switched votes the most? But then you are still here and have spread a lot of votes around, so maybe not.

I get the feeling that when all the hidden rules are revealed AFC is going to catch a whole lot of **** from people who didn't get them!

 

Non-Aligned Roles

The Rambler AKA Obi - the rambler cannot vote for the lynch, cannot be voted to be lynched but can be killed by the serial killer or mafia. If the Cartel try to recruit the rambler he will be killed. The Rambler is not a bad guy or a good guy and may choose to contribute constructively to the town or get in there way. Mischief is the word.



Ok, I thought others could kill me off too. So down to Mafia (IF they have kills left AND IF they feel I have enough info to endanger them) or SK, OR if recruited by Cartel.

In terms of allegiance, you're right, I am not by default aligned, but as you can see from AFC'S intro, I could choose to support Town. On night 1 Town lost 2 key roles so I thought the most interesting role to keep the game rolling was to support them as best I could.

I can't expect you to believe that.

But then, do you all believe Nev's story?

Also, so Mikey's bad luck with his 3 picks was to recruit 2 dead people and 1 person with special powers who could reverse it? There is something in Nev's story and actual actions (posts/votes/attempts to influence) that is flawed. Even with Mikey's admission. OR is he just deflecting attention from the real Cartel head?

I shared info that included Nev might not be Town and suddenly we get his fantasy story and a load of attacks on me.

 

Right I' m back online guys. I must admit I'm struggling to get decent reads on people because So many people are quiet, and I haven't played a mafia game with the newcastle board guys before, except one game with a couple of them.

Like i said earlier that post by Neville at least helps my understanding of the game a bit, i really was at a loss how valley's 100% accurate investigation on mito was wrong. I could accept that i got unlucky when mito got the 33% call on me wrong that i was mafia, but now it seems likely that the investigations were meant to give the wrong info most of the time.

It certainly seems like we have the cartel nabbed, unless neville and mikey are playing a really complicated strategy, but i believe 99% mikeyis cartel and i've had a town read on neville for ages so i believe him and think he's 90% town.

We need the meth head to find the SK tonight, or at worst we need to kill him tomorrow via lynch or meth head, we're running out of time. And we need to kill at least 1 mafia by the end of tomorrow.

Schizo is 50% useful as he could kill or investigate, but 25% not useful if he protects. Schizo don't reveal your role unless you investigate and find the SK or Mafia member. We just have to hope his investigations are true, although it's not likely. Maybe don't reveal yourself after a non town investigation unless it's someone you suspected already, we can't afford to have your role revealed on a bogus read & kill an innocent.

It's really important that we give the two roles targets, as it would be disaster if schizo protects the person that meth head kills! You have been doing this already so we need to just keep that up. We give our #1 target to meth head & #2 target to schizo. I agree the meth head should have options in case we say he must kill himself. Schizo does not need 2 options, if we name you just go for someone else.

 

Right, have a family get-together and won't be back in until well after NIGHTFALL. So not going to be able to post.

I fully expect about another 50 posts from Nev today, trying hard again to influence everyone about his crazy stories. but I won't be on here to assess flaws and counter them.

Just keep an open mind - in a game full of twists and turns. That's all the advice I can give. Don't get sucked in.

By the way, I am asking AFC if we can change the trigger for my powers to be when Nev has mentioned me over 1,000,000 times on this thread. 3 more mentions and I'm there!

Have fun. See you later - if I'm still alive.

 

I've been trying to figure out who the various roles are but it's been a battle. I think the two mafia have been quiet but there are so many so that has been really tough.

The town roles i reckon have been fairly active and constructive in their posts as they are so key to us winning, so i'm sure they have been trying to figure out what is going on along with the few of us doing so. I have a few possible reads but nothing 100%. I really thought Funky was the meth head, he was getting so frustrated with the game & trying to figure things out that i felt he must be the meth head. That role is so key now to us winning that i felt he must have been it, & was taking strain with the pressure of the responsibility of killing bad guys & getting it wrong. I'm not sure why the meth head went for him, i thought we were targeting quiet posters?

I'm not sure how much to trust obi wan's posts. I have been using them to try figure things out but also trying to keep an open mind in case he's making it all up. I was fairly certain the info he gave us was true (the 1 in 3 true story), but now i'm unsure about him due to the bit about mikey. If 1 in 3 is true then it means mikey was buying something from from shady newcastle guy. This does not tie up with mikey being pablo... If mikey is pablo then he would be supplying the drugs, not buying them. I thought it meant Mikey was meth head, and that newcastle fan is Pablo. Now i think it could mean the newcastle guy is mafia and mikey was paying him protection money? But maybe all 3 are wrong, then it means obi is stringing us along. So i don't know, we'll only know tomorrow once we lynch mikey.
Obi wan, can you give us your view on the mikey option please? I know you just get the info from afc, just wanted to hear your intrpretation as a neutral. I'm not saying you're anti town (so don't go put some lie about me there tomorrow!), i'm just really confused about that one about mikey. Put it this way, based on his comments I'm 75% sure obi wan is trying to help town, but I'm only 50% sure his 1 out of 3 options from afc are true as i cant figure out the mikey one. Any opinions from you guys?

 

Sorry about the long posts but need to make up for being offline yesterday, & i'm going to be busy this afternoon so i want to get my opinions out there.

I won't give all my reads on people as we're lynching mikey tonight, i'll do that tomorrow so that hopefully we can figure out who the SK and mafia are. I think we should all give our reads on all existing players tomorrow, as it's last chance saloon tomorrow in all likelihood. We have to kill SK & at least one mafia by tomorrow. I don't want to get to Tuesday and we have to make a 50/50 call on someone to win or lose the game. I had to make that call in the last game as avenging angel, got it wrong & lost the game for town, i'm not prepared to go through that again as I'm still gutted about it.

I voted ACS yesterday but am now leaning towards him being town, so that's one less possible mafia newcastle fan for me. I thought he was being dodgy and lurking without being that helpful initially, but he's been a lot more constructive and posting more. I think i naturally was inclined to believe he was guilty due to having played one game against him before & thinking he was pulling the same tricks, but don't think that now. I haven't played against the other newcastle fans so have no idea how they usually play, i just got reads on neville and acs due to the previous game, which i think was naive of me now in hindsight. Started off thinking neville town and acs guilty, but now leaning towards neville 90% town and acs 70% town. Confirmation of hat came when neville said that he saw acs as innocent, he knows him a lot better so i trust his judgement on the newcastle guys. Neville, can you give us your opinion on the other newcastle board players please?

Out of the players i know better, swarbs seems to be town due to his constructive posts, i dont think he has a role as he hasn't been posting as much as when roles in previous games, but contructive enough that i think 70% chance town with no role.
Lucaaas is quiet but usually is. He was quiet as mafia don (i think) in one game, but was then quiet in the next game too so i think he just isn't online that often.
Bodanki is a good player & i trust his judgement when he gives his opinions. He seems to be trying to figure this out & his anger at the meth head suggests he's town, i'm around 60% sure on him.

I usually think most players are guilty and only a few innocent, this time i'm really struggling as the posters i know better seem innocent. I hope that means they are & it's the players i don't know that are guilty, otherwise my reads have gone to pot & i'm losing it! These guys i think are town are also the main people trying to figure out the game and posting a lot, i don't want them getting killed off & then it's just neville & myself talking all day... I really suspect the quiet guys but i don't trust my judgement as i don't know them at all, would really appreciate other players' views on them that know them better. Sepp, you have come across as an astute player, can you give us your opinions on them please? Neville you too please?

 

Mikey (7): Swarbs, Less Hope than Neville, ACS, Mikey, Sir tennisball, BobbyD, Sebbs campaign manager
BobbyD (1): Bodanki

Yet to vote: Lucaaas

(Not going to be online now for a few hours)

 

Morgan (Sebb), why you being so quiet. You are normally stuck right in there.

As i've said before, Bod has been to quiet for my liking and Lucas.

Obviously we will lop mikey off tonight.

 

Ok, back now. will read back and post what i think and let you decide how you take it.

 

Ok, here's my reads on people:

Mikey - Mikey is Pablo. I know this for a fact. You will see tonight that I am right when he is lynched.

Me - I am an innocent townie with no (more) powers. There is a 50/50 chance I will die tonight with Mikey. That was the cost of naming Pablo. I don't want to die, but you need to assume the worst and that even if everything else goes for us then we will be down to 4 townies tonight.

ACS - I am finding ACS confusing. this is normal in mafia games though. Even today he changed his mind on Obi 4 times on one page without being fed any new information. I suspect he is muddying the waters, but this time I think it's on the side of good. I am 90% convinced that ACS is an important part of the town and on our side.

Swarbs/Bodanki - I am 70% sure both are town. The reason being that both have had fairly constructive posts for the town and both came out independently and said that Mikey was Cartel while I was still typing my post. I suspect they both completed tasks to get an investigation.

SirTennisball - This is where it gets confusing. Based on posts and actions alone I'd be 70% sure that he was a townie. He has been constructive and helpful. However, we have the investigation from MITO, who we now know was the PI. On it's own this said that Tennis was 67% mafia. We also know that we have to treat investigation results very carefully now. Something strange is going on with the results. Balancing things out I'd say I was 55% sure Tennis is a townie. Lots of muddy water though.

Bobby/Sebb - too quiet. I've had limited contact with Bobby in these games before but when I did he contributed much more. Similarly, I have never seen Sebb so quiet. Neither has done anything to attract suspicion - other than not doing enough. This seems out of character but isn't evidence on its own. We have killed three quiet players now and we just killed three innocent townies. Did we just go for the wrong quiet ones? These two have been less quiet than Nobby and Rolando. Is that an attempt to not appear quiet by doing just enough? I'd say I was 55% sure these two could be NON-Town.

Lucas - Very very quiet. out on his own in that regard with the exception of Tash. Has been online at nightfall without voting. Others have said he always plays a quiet game though. So perhaps this is not evidence. 60% sure Lucas is NON-Town.

Obi - I went after him really really hard last night to see how he reacted and he didn't really. This makes me think he is just messing with us for fun rather than anything sinister. Hasn't offered any explanation why all 3 of his first predictions were wrong (which you will see tonight they are). So suspect he is harmless other than feeding random info to us to mess with our heads.

My advice tonight is to go lynch Mikey and for the Meth head to go after one of the two I've put as 55% likely to be non-town and for schizo to go after the one I have put as 60% likely to be non-town, for no other reason than they are already arranged like that above.

I think we are bound to start hitting positive results soon. the numbers are starting to come a bit more into our favour in terms of chance.

 

I already explained why I didn't vote. My vote wouldn't have made any difference because Tobes had 13 more votes than the next person on the 2nd day.

And my vote tonight won't make any difference either because Mikey is already guaranteed to be killed off.

 

Ok, if your vote makes no difference then vote Mikey. If it doesn't make any difference then what do you have to lose?

Unless of course you have another action you can only perform if you don't vote in the lynch...like going on a serial killing rampage

 

Thanks, that was really helpful i agree with nearly all of your calls based on the players I've played with before.

 

Fine then.

Mikey

I wish I was the serial killer because being a normal townie is just boring to me.

 

Mwahahaha, played you like a fiddle

P.S. That sounds like something a member of the Mafia would say...

 

I have a question for Less Hope than Neville: when you found out that you had a secret ability that you could unlock through your actions, did afc tell you that in your initial PM or did he send you a PM during the game once certain other events had already happened?

My initial PM was a very simple You are an ordinary townie, enjoy the game message, I wonder if the Serial Killer was told up front that he would have to do X Y & Z to become the serial killer? The way I understood the OP the serial killer would not know that he would be the SK until he activates by some occurrence that he would not know about, but after hearing about Neville's sect ability i wonder if the serial killer knew what to do to unlock his ability?

If that's the case it's quite a clever ploy by afc. Usually SK will just hang back in the shadows like mafia, stay under the radar and pick people off one by one. This way they have to do things that draw attention to themselves to get their ability, makes for a more active game.

I just had a brainwave. Maybe that's why mafia aren't doing anything! Afc hinted that they START with two kills, so i assumed they could get more. Maybe the two mafia have decided that they would rather stay quiet and not draw attention to themselves, than do whatever actions afc requires to gain kills or whatever they get.

I know it's assuming a lot but judging by the way this game is going i think it's a possibility at least. Anyone think its somewhat likely?