Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

No, I voted MITO last night and switched to Tennis earlier on today I believe.

 

Ok - missed that one then

 

a good bit there was new.. read valley question and gerrez questions.. If you want 2 hours like funky go ahead from here.

If poeple could please tell me what to do with my vote as i don't want to be able to switch late thanks...

 

So at the minute we have a tie and only two to vote.

 

Vote for Tash

 

OK I finally caught up taking notes, been stuck in meetings today.

Just a reply to the above, Bod voted for mito first (pg 73-74) and then switcched to me (pg 75-76)

#VOTE (pg 73-74)
Bodanki - Vote MITO. Like funky. I have worked out which of the two are correct 100%.

#VOTE (pg 75-76)
Bodanki - You read my mind, was going to suggest the same thing.
vote Sir Tennis

So the voting table is correct... Will post my thoughts in a minute.

 

Are we still planning to investigate Tash? If Obi's mad rantings do have a grain of truth in them then didn't he suggest that Tash could be the cartel? We don't know if he is inactive or silent. There is always the possibility he is unlucky and recruited IBWT and Gerrez. Also the possibilty that Gerrez was some sort of failed recruit.

If one of Obi's three statements is true then it would mean either

1. Funky is the nutter - I fed him something that was so obvious that there is no way he would have missed if he was the nutter. He didn't respond in the way the nutter would have and took it personally. So this one can't be true.

2. Tash is the cartel. At the minute we don't know, but his silence would fit with no recruitment.

3. Lucaaas is mafia. Why would Tobes (confirmed mafia) put him up for the coin toss. Very unlikely.


This means that IF Obi is telling the truth about being passed info (very big if) then it is most likely that Tash is cartel unless either Tobes or Funky are playing the game very badly. I really don't buy that Funky would be playing as badly as he looks to be so that may well lead to serious suspicions on him too.

 

OK I must be honest I don't know what to think. I keep switching between mito being mafia and him being town.

I don't know what the heck you guys are thinking because I know I'm innocent so have that added advantage, you obviously think there's a 67% chance I'm mafia so would edge you more towards mito being town I would guess. I'll just put my thoughts out there:

1.
24 hours ago I was willing to die rather than incriminate mito as I believed that he was the drunk PI, and I didn't want to assume he was mafia just because I got unlucky and he hit the 33% incorrect investigation result on me.
As a no role townie I am not that important, I made sure to say that once I'm killed that it doesn't necessarily imply mito is mafia, as there's that 33% chance of wrong result.
I was desperately trying to figure out if he was mafia or drunk PI, I wasn't sure but ended up thinking in my opinion that he was probably around 70% chance of being the drunk PI, and only 30% chance of being mafia.

2.
Then Valley's report comes out naming mito as non town. This changed everything as he was 100% right on Tobes, and I couldn't see Valley pulling a mafia stunt so early by killing off one of his two teammates.
The theories then emerged about secret mafia abilities, but I did not put too much trust in them as their secret abilities would have to be (A) force mito to kill and (B) mess with Valley's reports, which should be 100% accurate. The alternative was a straight forward solution that mito was mafia, so both the secret powers were nonsense. This was obviously the easier solution to believe, and as a bonus it ties in with me being innocent and mito trying to get an innocent killed.
At this stage I was going to go back through all my notes, but I was 90% convinced mito was mafia. If we kill him and he is mafia we have Valley who we can trust 100%, and I'd be a confirmed innocent, which would put us in an incredibly strong position.

3.
I was desperate to be able to convince everyone of this, so went through all the pages and making notes along the way.
The only problem is I'm now so confused, the more I read the more unsure I am.

I don't know, I'll categorise my two trains of thought below:

A. Why mito might be guilty
1. Two secret abilities is a long stretch to believe over a straight forward story of Valley telling the truth.
2. Valley's investigations are 100% accurate and with tobes being mafia I'd rather follow the clear path than to make a number of assumptions and do something else. Just worried we're killing an investigative role... It's just a lot adding up against him if we take it at face value without the secret role stuff: Seen killing IBWT, fingered by the 100% accurate Psychic, tried to say I was mafia but I know I'm not.

B. Why mito might be innocent
1. Did not object too much to Valley investigating him (but did not have too much choice, did not suggest it)
2. Has made very constructive posts, and has always been adamant that I might be town (33% chance) (although this might be to cover him once I'm killed)
3. He keeps saying he's happy for the schizo to kill him to prove he's right. This really frustrates me as if he is the drunk PI we can't afford to kill him, he can't invite this. (might be a ploy to act innocent but I don't think so, I feel this indicates he is town)
4. No one else has claimed the role so unless they are inactive he is the role (massive gamble to hope the person is offline. Only option is mafia gets told there is no drunk PI role, you can claim it yourself)

So overall I'm at least considering that mito might be innocent I think, maybe a 40% chance. If he is mafia and he's been playing us with his incredibly creative secret role stuff then fair play to him, it's very impressive.
My main concern is that relies on us leaning towards the theory that the mafia can change Valley's investigations, when the OP clearly states it's 100% accurate, and we have heard from mito that he was apparently forced to kill IBWT so I that;s two big hidden abilities. Possible, yes, but what are the chances of us figuring that out successfully fairly early in the game?
The alternative is a fairly straight forward one that mito is mafia and killed IBWT and was seen by Valley, however the big hole in that theory is where is the real drunk PI. He's either not revealing his role yet as mito looks guilty, inactive or somehow mafia can recruit the drunk PI (mito).

I don't know, you decide. I really hope mito is guilty, and then we're left with Valley being trusted 100% in his investigations, and I am a confirmed innocent. If mito is town then we have big problems because mafia have some really powerful secret abilities.

I'm all for keeping mito alive another day if the majority think he's town, I don't want to lose an investigative role if he is one. Valley could investigate me tonight (as others have suggested) and will confirm that I'm innocent, which does not mean too much for mito as he'll still be under suspicion but at least I'll be a confirmed innocent, as it's wasting a lot of time debating it.

Obviously you guys have to suspect me of 67% chance of being mafia, but Valley can dispel that worry by investigating me.
As said yesterday we need to use our lynches to root out mafia/cartel, let's use it to put a few quiet or suspicious people in the picture and see what happens. I am no threat, just a single person and can be killed any time.
Priority is finding out which of our two investigators we can trust (and if mafia can mess with their results), and we need to catch the cartel guy before he starts recruiting.
Obviously once the serial killer activates we;ll need to catch him as well, but as it hasn't happened yet we'll just have to wait and see.

 

Have you managed to avenge my death yet ffs

 

I am thoroughly confused too.

This is a good constructive post (which in some ways is a pain as I still have you as 67% mafia) because I believe that MITO is the drunk PI and that the mafia are playing with us hoping we will be gullible.

My dilemma with you is that

1) if you are mafia then it is in your interest to stretch out how long it is till you get lynched as a lot can happen in an extra night

2) if you are mafia then your best defence for the position you are in is to be a constructive town member - that's just lose/lose for you though as what else are you supposed to do if you are innocent too?

3) If you are innocent then it looks bad for MITO (and through association me if he then turns out to be mafia)

4) if you are both innocent (and it is the 33% rule) then we are all in a whole pile of trouble and we are either being played by Valley or the mafia are running this game from the shadows. If this last one is the case then we are screwed and have to start afresh cos nothing makes sense.

 

1) Kind of, but with only 2 mafia left there isn't much that can happen. Plus that's why I'm recommending that Valley investigates me. You'll know tomorrow that I'm innocent.

2) True, but mafia wouldn't be as constructive as I've been, I'm sure. I voted for Tobes immediately and pointed out he was guilty throughout, if i was mafia I would have waited to see how town reacted before following their lead. With only 3 mafia originally the mafia can't afford to act like the best townie in the world and get their mafia mate lynched the minute someone suspects him... This was before mito said I might be mafia, I was not in the spotlight at all but trying to be a good townie.

3) A little bit, but as mito's pointed out throughout there's 33% chance he was wrong about me. By far the biggest black mark against him is that he was investigated by Valley and seen as NON TOWN. That is a way bigger deal than me being innocent. I can't believe that people are harping on about me and not focusing on that, me being innocent does not mean mito is guilty at all, and yet plenty of people are saying that. The bigger question is can mafia cause valley to give incorrect info, but that is hard to figure out I admit.

4) True, I really hope that's not the case. That's why I'm hoping mito is mafia, if he is innocent I don't know where we are.

 

I don't know about you, but the more I go back through my notes and through the thread I come more and more to the feeling that it is number 4 though. I really don't want that to be the case as it will mean we're up against it. I kind of need you to be guilty!

 

You guys need to make a call if you want mito and I in a cointoss, if you want to lynch one of us, or if you want to go for the suspicious quiet posters and let Valley investigate me.

Cointoss does not make sense to me, if mito is mafia then there's no way the other mafia will be stupid enough to try save him. Even if they play the "Oh I counted votes wrong, oops I killed tennisball by mistake" card you guys will be on to them.

Mito might switch vote to me last minute and say that he knew he was innocent so decided to kill the 67% mafia, but that might backfire on him and you'll lynch him tomorrow for killing an innocent. This is probably the most likely, although mito did say he doesn't want to be in that position. His vote is currently on Bod not me so this could still happen.

It's going to take some co-ordination if you guys want to change the plan. I recommend Valley as a virtually confirmed innocent should maybe call the shots, otherwise just go with the majority but you often have guys popping in and saying "Hey what's the plan", and they won't read through all the posts.

I'm not too fazed, I have no role so if mito is innocent it's better you kill me, although I still think you can let Valley investigate me. If mito is mafia though I'm going to be p***ed off as I should have pushed harder that he's mafia, as I could have been a confirmed innocent alongside Valley.

 

Hells bells there is a lot of ifs, buts and maybes on this thread. I vote we kill 'em all, and let god sort 'em out!

Seriously tho', I'm off to spend some time with the family as it is Friday. Will be back on around 8:30 ish to try and catch up on what will undoubtedly be another 20 pages of theories and supposition. It's like watching the first half of an episode of House...

 

Can someone summerise what's happened as ive not been in since I posted this morning.

 

- Some people think MITO is guilty and want him lynched
- Some people think we should test MITO guilt by lynching SirTennis as they think MITO has an important role if he is innocent
- They are both in a neck and neck vote count

- I want to give both of them another day as they both make constructive posts. I would like you to investigate SirTennis to prove his innocence
- I want to lynch Tash for being inactive and imo a chance of being mr pablo the cartel manager. Hasn't got much traction so far

 

Thought you'd be quiet

 

I think we're basically waiting for your lead as we have an impasse on what to do and the status quo is not a good position. I'm happy to go along with Bobby's idea of lynching tash providing people also move off MITO. I think we need as many investigators as possible to be active and alive to find the serial killer and cartel especially. Unlike the mafia they will never do anything to give themselves away. Without investigators they will only be found through pot luck and that's a dangerous game.

 

one correction.
I want the meth head who is supposed to be 100% able to kill to kill me... or you but i want both of us dead by the town's hands tonight

 

I'd ask you read my theory at least before deciding