Off Topic Afcftw Mafia Game

TOBES

 

OK so this will be a long post, I've been rereading all the posts since page 11 for the past couple of hours and updating my notes (as I only make notes at work and not at home).

I am an innocent townie with no role, however I have no way to back this up except through the way I've interacted with everyone. However, we have so many town and there are so few mafia that if we can prove that mito is the drunk PI then it would make sense to kill me as there is a 67% chance I'm mafia and the alternative is I'm a no role townie, so no major loss.

That has been my dilemma, I've been going through all the posts to see if mito seems like town or if he's scrambling and trying to save himself.

If I think he's town I'm not going to make him look guilty just to save myself as I'll be hurting town, however when I die and it's confirmed I'm innocent it will implicate him somewhat (with the 33% chance of being wrong though). So I'm going to put my thoughts out there and you guys can use them to make up your own mind. We can't afford to kill mito if he is the drunk PI, but we can't let him pull the wool over our eyes either. I fully expect the mafia to kill the investigative roles if they can, so it would seem that could be Valley and Mito. If one of them remains alive and others get killed I would be very suspicious of them.


Here is my thinking on Mito:

A. Day 1 behaviour
Before the investigative info came out I was wondering about his crazy behaviour. Looking at my notes he voted for 11 different people! My various theories were:

A.1) He was hinting that he was the schizo/drunk/meth town role and hence acting crazy. Bit obvious imho though and mafia would then target him.

A.2) He wanted to do something crazy and different as he usually runs the games, and then when he plays he gets killed for being logical. So why not do something memorable that he can look back on with glee afterwards. I was leaning towards this theory, however he could be town or mafia in this case, in either role he would act like this. Being mafia and acting crazy would give him more street cred, and everyone has this belief now that mafia are usually quiet which is bollocks as everyone is now looking out for that.


B. Actions during voting.

B.1) Mito was always amongst the high votes, which is when he started with the crazy behaviour. Early game he made helpful and constructive posts, but then once he got voted for he acted crazy. This ties in to my point above, he decided to act crazy to show he wasn't mafia as they're supposed to be silent and wouldn't draw attention to themselves. This does not necessarily mean he is mafia, it just means he didn't want to get lynched.

B.2) Mito voted for 11 people but never voted for me. This I find strange if he really did investigate me, if he was suspicious of me surely he would have voted for me and seen what reaction there was, or called me out about something. It would not have been too suspicious as he was acting like a lunatic anyway, what's one extra vote on me?

C. Actions after Valley's investigation reveal.

C.1) Mito only came out with all his theories and info after he was fingered by Valley. This could be because he was scrambling & desperate, or he could be innocent but doesn't want to die without revealing what info he had on me. I'm unsure at this stage which one it is, that is the big question.

C.2) A few things that maybe mito can explain to me. Why investigate me? You said I was lurking which is blatantly not the case, I've posted a fair bit and all of them were constructive pro-town posts. I've seen no one except Lucaaas imply that they thought I was suspicious, so was wondering why you picked me?
Another thing is you say it's worth it revealing yourself if you find a mafia and it's a 1-1 sacrifice. However you are only 67% chance of being right as you rightly admit, so it's not even like you are sure that I'm mafia, and now you've gone and revealed yourself? I find that very strange and poor play from a good player. I know you may be concerned that you get killed without revealing your info, but you could have just mentioned that you got a PM saying you were forced to kill IBWT, you did not have to say you were the drunk PI. You have given your role away for no real reason, a 67% chance is not 100% and we've already lost our detective. This is one of the biggest reasons why I suspect that you're just scrambling and potentially mafia.

C.3) I can't believe that you didn't pick up that if the Cartel didn't recruit it could have been due to them trying to recruit someone who was killed first. Having run so many games and having to personally check the order of night time events to see how it affects later actions. It just seems strange, it doesn't make you innocent or guilty though, unless you were panicking and not thinking clearly.

C.4) Could mito reveal the info he was given that said I was mafia? all he said was he walked past my window, I'm keen to hear the wording so we know for future info we receive.


Tobes
OK that's everything on mito. Let's get onto Tobes.
I think Tobes is 99% guilty. He has done nothing to try to defend himseld except get angry at people and Valley and Mito's stories collaborate each other. I think we all agree we kill Tobes and then see what happens.


Future Action: what I propose

I wanted to propose that I get investigated as it would be nice to prove that I'm innocent, and then I would be a confirmed innocent which could help direct voting. However this is selfish and not a good idea as our investigators could be killed off soon, no point proving a no role townie is innocent.

We need to find out if mito is innocent asap. If there is anyone who claims to be the drunk (Nobby?) they need to claim soon.
1. I think we should lynch Tobes, he should be either Mafia or hopefully Pablo and then that would mean Valley is innocent.
2. Valley should investigate mito and see if he is town tonight, this is critical and is 100% accurate. Hopefully no one kills Valley tonight. If Valley is killed it could mean mito is mafia and wants to save himself, it could also mean mito is innocent and mafia don't want us to realise that. Nice hey.
3. Mito I don't know who you should investigate. No point investigating me because it should say I'm innocent (EDIT: 2/3 chance, not conditional on the previous investigation), but then you're still stuck with one guilty and one innocent read on me. Maybe just go for someone else as you're only 67% correct anyway, maybe you get lucky.

If mito is the drunk then I fully expect you to lynch me and it would be the smart thing to do, I can't prove I'm innocent and even if you kill me I have no role, so no major loss. However if mito is mafia then perhaps Valley could investigate me the next night and confirm I'm a proven innocent. We'll deal with that when we get there...

Sorry about the long post mito-style! At least it's only one long post and not dozens!

 

Killing Tobes will help in a way. If we kill Tobes and he is non town, then we know that Valley's investigations are legit, even if the extra info on MITO is wrong.

So we then follow your suggestion and have Valley investigate MITO, and we know that whatever he turns up then is accurate - either MITO is Mafia or MITO is town being pressured by Mafia.

- If MITO turns up Mafia then we lynch him
- If MITO turns up town then we lynch Sir Tennisball as he will be 66% Mafia

 

With respect to this. I had saved this info up and did note this myself on sir tennisball on investigations

 

Or what if it was a complete crock of ****......

Where is he btw?



*shakeshead*

 

Please do note. Several people on this game saw what I did on first day on werewolf game on newcastle board.

I will not confuse things any more but I had my reasons for my actions and will say so after. As I said I didn't just want to be killed off. When I was on 2 votes I did deliberately drive it even worse as Sir tennis points to.

I will clarify again one thing.

I got two PMs one gave me the direct result of my investigation. I said this yesterday. I got a second afterwards saying I killed ibwt and staggered past sir tennis window after that.

 

I'm not sure there is much to say today. We all know who we need to lynch.

The convo (IMO) should be around who we investigate and also what Nobby was up to yesterday.

 

Just following up from the point about why mito chose you to investigate, that doesn't stack up at all.

On the same theme no-one has questioned why Valley supposedly chose me? There was no mention of me being under suspicion by anyone and I didn't get a single vote.

The idea of him being under mafia control has been aired by Gerrez but only over the mito element of his comments and not what he stated was 'fact' re: me, which stinks like a week old kipper.

 

On my investigation.

I felt Sir tennis was lurking. Simple as.

All I can say is my info says tennis is mafia

 

Don't you think I'd not put my investigate target out there . I didn't vote sir tennis as I was saving that.

Further we were on non actives so I was actually voting for people who wrre on right then to make them think **** what is he on and then for inactive.

And yes I also got bores and wanted to spice it up too. I prob did more than I originally planned

 

Just two quick notes from me:

Saying ACS was SK last game was a mistake by me, he was vampire. I voted him not because he ws guilty but because he seems to be playing the same card as last game when he was guilty: saying he's so busy he can't be online, he's so confused etc and yet always voting in time and having an effect, but never making constructive posts. Whether he was SK or Vampire is immaterial, he was guilty and I'm saying he's acting the same, an honest mistake on my part to get the exact role wrong.

I realised I got that mito 2 investigations thing horribly wrong when reading through everything earlier, I actually edited my original post ages ago to say that, you can go back and check. No excuse, I was tired last night and thought I'd picked up on an obvious error in mito's logic, I realised earlier that wasn't the case.

Thanks for saying that all you've seen is mistakes by me, really appreciate it!

 

ACS also claimed to be drunk last night (a convenient trick) and then mixed it up between confused and lucid thoughts. One to keep an eye on IMO.

 

Couldn't give a **** what you did in that game TBH

 

That okay buddy!. Plus i'm still angry you killed me off for no good reason!. You make a compelling case for yourself though... I think lets lynch Tobes for tonight have Valley investigate MITO and see what comes out tomorrow.

Plus the nutjob should just search someone randomly

 

As I said above, is playing the risk percentages. The bit about you may not be true but if we lynch Valley and it is true we lose the psychic. If it isn't true and we lynch you we lose a regular townie unless you're going to claim otherwise?

 

Does anyone think the PI role is a good asset...? Yes he can investigate but we're always going to question the results and therefore never truly listen / believe them. Obviously its a better asset than a regular townie.

 

[QUOTE="Gerrez, post: 8024451, member: 1002449"]I think Obi is the most trust worthy person atm but that's in no means 100%. Beyond that, I only trust myself [/QUOTE]





Sorry...you were serious..

 

I don't really but I can give some info just can't be trusted so if I have to die I at least have info and helped town

 

But that is the thing, we don't know if you have info

 

Thats it, I'm changing to MITO