The 2015 Epsom Derby

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Who is going to win?

  • Total voters
    25
  • Poll closed .
Moheet 50/1. Well I have to agree that Moheet should not be 50/1

Firstly he reversed the placings with Kool Company in no uncertain terms when they met in the Gns. And that despite a terrible run. Yet still got to within 8l of Gleneagles.

Now, with an uninterrupted run he might have got within a couple of lengths of the best miler around.

Although Gleneagles was doubtful to stay 12f, what price would he have been if taking part? Single figures no doubt.

Factor in that Moheet is more certain to stay than Gleneagles that would make him more likely to make up that couple of lengths over 12f. That would put him around the 8/1 mark

50/1? Never

Best ew bet in the Derby
 
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Jack Hobbs. Doubts about the going, doubts about the track, doubts about him even running. Surely that reduces his chances by a few lengths if he were to run. Can't imagine he would have been a clear winner with ideal conditions so I can write him off as the winner.
 
Success Days. Decent form on soft/heavy going but what will he be like on god/good to firm. Apparently he doesn't have the knee action of a soft ground specialist so could he be even better on a sound surface? If he is it could be a procession. BUT, the fact is he has no form on a sound surface. Anyone know how he has been going at home on a sound surface? If there is a price collapse it could be that connections know something they haven't let on.
 
A look at other outsiders.
Carbon Dating .250/1 Pedigree is OK but all the form points to this one being tailed off. Is there anything in the field this one could beat? No
Rogue Runner 100/1. Plenty of stamina on the dam side. By a miler )King's Best) who didn't get the chance to prove stamina in the Derby (went lame in the race) but inflicted a 3l defeat on Giant's causeway over a mile. King's Best himself by a specialist miler. Only his 4th race and the first attempt beyond a mile met in defeat on soft. Too difficult to assess but nothing to suspect he will be on my "Benefit of Hindsight" thread.
Kilimanjaro 20/1. Sure to stay. Has run on similar track. But his Lingfield win was incredibly slow. I think they will go too fast for this one
Storm The Stars 20/1. Sure to stay. Beaten a head by Golden Horn over a mile 7months ago. Given his pedigree that gives him a fair chance of reversing the form, although Golden Horn was a bit green that day, STS was actually fav to win that race. Beaten by Hans Holbein over 12.5f on soft ground but came good at Goodwood on a sounder surface. Should reverse placings with Hans Holbein on this ground and not without a chance of a place
 
Janabelle13 said:
Hope the Djokovic/Murray match is finished by the time the Derby starts
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Amazed that somebody thought that Murray was going to pull off a miracle fifth set comeback. He was lucky to force a fifth set because Djokovic was asleep. Once he woke up the fifth set was just a bit of practise for the Final.

Golden Horn is the best horse in the Derby. If he stays (which I do not think he will) then he wins.
 
50/1 still available for Moheet, although the more sensible bookies have him at half those odds
The 2/1 Golden Horn has long gone. I was expecting Jack Hobbs not to run and see GH go odds on but the latter is a confirmed runner so 7/4 is more likely (if you are lucky). Poor value now.
 
Brilliant ride by Dettori. And what a run from Jack Hobbs.
 
stick said:
I am having an each way on STORM THE STARS. He will make it a true test and has a very good attitude. Not the classiest individual but its a year when I don't think you need to be.
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Happy with that but I will make a revision as indeed I think the winner is a bit of class!
 
Ron said:
Moheet 50/1. Well I have to agree that Moheet should not be 50/1

Firstly he reversed the placings with Kool Company in no uncertain terms when they met in the Gns. And that despite a terrible run. Yet still got to within 8l of Gleneagles.

Now, with an uninterrupted run he might have got within a couple of lengths of the best miler around.

Although Gleneagles was doubtful to stay 12f, what price would he have been if taking part? Single figures no doubt.

Factor in that Moheet is more certain to stay than Gleneagles that would make him more likely to make up that couple of lengths over 12f. That would put him around the 8/1 mark

50/1? Never

Best ew bet in the Derby
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Got that wrong <laugh>
 
the don said:
If Golden Horn wins the Derby I will ride Squire naked!!
He simply wont stay (Stick has shared what we were told) but aside from that its obvious to me. No idea what will win but GH wont be and Oppenheimer knows it. Hes working out how much to lay it for to cover the supplement then have a free run. Watch him drift on Betfair from now..... guarantee it.
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<rofl>

we are waiting
 
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Okay, I am just on the way to the shop for the Humble Pie...

I was one of those who thought Golden Horn would not stay but it is not the first time I have been wrong. At least I did not make any proclamations about doing anything silly if he won.

The winner and the third ran in consecutive races at Newmarket on 15th April, only one successfully. I had best go and dig out the photos as I must have a half decent one of the Derby winner now.

I thought during the race that Frankie rode him like a non-stayer, dropping him out at the back and switching him off. Once they had come around Tattenham Corner, he took his time to get his horse balanced and then came down the outside with his challenge.

Punters who backed Elm Park had done their money after the first half mile. He pulled too hard and would not settle but by the time Atzeni had got control that left Hans Holbein to inherit a pace that was too quick for many of the others.

Going on what John Gosden said when interviewed immediately after the race, Jack Hobbs will be going to Ireland for the Irish Derby. That leads me to conclude that Golden Horn may be going to Sandown for the Eclipse.

As usual in the week before the Derby everyone was crabbing the race as sub-standard but now that a class act has prevailed it does not look so bad. Bring on the older horses – let us see whether he is best of a bad bunch or top drawer.
 
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Der Kaiser said:
<rofl>

we are waiting
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Sorry to disappoint MOG but his rugger arse will never sit on on our boy!
To be fair to the don we were told by a very reliable source on Dante day that Golden Horn most likely would not stay as he just had too much pace. They knew he would win the Dante but did not exude confidence about the Derby and it was all about the trip. He saw out every yard. Quality animal and the Arc will be interesting.
 
Laugh my nads off at this load of bollocks every year. Thoroughbred racing is a MULTI-MILLION pound business and yet some folk still want to kid us along that they "don't know whether a horse will stay 12 furlongs". As I say every year, get to **** you ****ers. How hard can it be to ascertain whether a horse will stay 12 furlongs. Let me put it this way: you've got loads of horses, you've got gallops coming out of your arse and you've got a stopwatch. End of ****ing story <doh>
 
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The so called breeding experts have well and truly got there comeuppance.

Go by what you've seen on the track, and as I said at the time, how Golden Horn won the Dante suggested that he would stay an extra furlong and a half.

Once horses have actually raced, breeding is a load of old bollocks, and I never understand why people place so much importance on it.

The 2 class horses from the Dante fought out the finish, and you have to say Golden Horn is an exceptional colt to dismiss Jack Hobbs the way he did :biggrin:
 
Actually Shergs, some breeding experts were convinced he would stay. Also Joe convinced me so I believed it also and selected him on that basis.
 
To be fair STH most of us at some time on here have listened to and accepted the advice others who come up with a theory or two. That doesn't mean that we'd all do stupid things, like jumping off bridges. Taking reasoned advice is a personal thing, it's up to us to evaluate the data and then to decide whether we'd like to act on it. In this case Joe got it right, and someone had the nous to see the validity in what was being offered. Applause to both Joe and Ron. <ok>
 
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