Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 26th. May 2015

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Both yourself and Fabio put up solid selections today and you should both be collecting as far as I am concerned, I hate it when a jockey denies a horse it's opportunity of winning by over complicating a straight forward job.
 
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stick said:
Anyone on KNIGHT MUSIC today? That's what it was meant to do the last day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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R Havlin again.. Just been looking at Knight Music. He has definitely been racing over distances too short. Stepped up to 12f receiving loads of weight. Nice touch. Probably stay further. Only previous race on turf was on soft as a 2yo. Maybe back on turf on decent ground over 12f he could follow up. Pure guesswork but it would be interesting
 
Huntingdon 8.20 West End @ 10s. Ran well for a long way over a similar trip lto until weakening on unsuitable ground. Has his ground this evening and is on a decent mark on his best form. No excuses.
 
SaveTheHumans said:
Rock The World 7/4 Ballinrobe 8:00 makes his chase debut tonight and he should prove a cut above these, and the sharp track should strengthen his claims even more where he can use his speed to good effect. Was a useful hurdler if just a bit short of Grade 1 class. I'd expect A Sizing Network to worry him most especially with the weight difference. Rock The World has beat A Sizing Network comfortably in a hurdles race before and should confirm superiority over Fences.
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Very nice performance considering it was his debut under rules over fences . 18 lengths against a useful sort in Abbey Lane. Should progress onto much better things from this.
 
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I'm not claiming to have done a thorough job on this by any means but just a quick look at 2 races over C&D illustrates what chance Squire has (theoretically) on Saturday.

Conversion rates
Over 10f: 1 length = 1.75lbs (BHA)
Good going or quicker: 6l = 1 sec (Betfair Protrader)
1 sec = 10.5 lbs (deduced)

Squire.(4yo- OR 71) 14th May Newmarket 10f (Class 5) - 9.3lb Time 2m 7.28secs

The following day (when times were generally slightly faster)
Zugzwang (4yo - OR 87) 15th May Newmarket 10f (Class 3) - 9.6lb Time 2m 5.92secs Beaten hd

On Saturday an OR 87 horse has been allocated 9.0lb. Squire has been allocate 8.3lb

Now follows an attempt to compare these 2 on the revised weights assuming they both run to the same form.

Squire carries 14lb less so his time is adjusted by 1.33 secs making an adjusted time of 2m 5.95s
Zugzwang carries 6lb less so his time is adjusted by 0.57 secs making an adjusted time of 2m 5.35s

So strictly on that, Squire would finish 0.6secs behind Zugzwang (or 3.6l) ie effectively, less than 4l behind the winner of a Class 3 over C&D

Now if we factor in:
  • Squire was pulling Havlin's arms out for half a mile lto
  • Squire is still learning and therefore still has room for improvement
  • a stronger pace may suit Squire and help him to settle
  • Havlin is riding at 1lb less than he has done over the last 12 months (source Flatstats) -what is the effect of 14lb dead weight carried lto?
We can speculate as to whether Squire can make up that 4l.

I think it's not out of the question.

Good luck on Saturday stick and I'll be looking at the time compared to the Listed race earlier in the afternoon to see what can be extrapolated from that.



 
Love the working out Ron. Thanks for that and the good wishes. Unless the top three all come out Havlin will not be able to do the weight. Not inconceivable that we would put up an apprentice.
 
Apparently he has done 8.4lb in the last 12 months. Can he not shed a pound more or is he well over that weight now? Do you have an apprentice that rides him at home? Now that would be interesting.
 
Ron said:
Apparently he has done 8.4lb in the last 12 months. Can he not shed a pound more or is he well over that weight now? .
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<laugh> that was 2005/6 <doh>
In the same period Luke Morris got down to 7-5 <yikes>
 
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