The Greenham form?

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King Shergar

King Shergar

Well-Known Member
May 9, 2011
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There seems to have been a lot of money around for Estidkhaar for the 2000 Guineas after his Greenham Stakes 2nd, he's top priced 8/1. For some reason everyone seems to think he is a better horse than the winner Muhaarar who's is as big as 20/1 for the classic.

I'm struggling to understand why though, as having watched the race a few times I think the best horse won. Muhaarar also fell out of the gate losing abit of ground on the field, yet was still able to win. And he had Estidkhaar well held at the line.

On pedigree aswell, Estidkhaar looks very doubtful to stay the mile, 7 furlongs looks about his optimum. Whilst Muhaarar should improve for the extra furlong.

I'm not saying I fancy either for the Guineas at this stage, but of the 2 Muharaar looks the better, so I fail to see why so many are backing Estidkhaar instead of him.

Il go as far as to say if both line up in the Guineas, Muharaar will confirm the Greenham form with him.
 
I think it is expected that Muharaar will be diverted to the French version of the 2000 Guineas "to make best use of his undoubted speed." That would possibly explain the price Shergs. If he does go in the 2000 he will be much shorter. See if you can get 20/1 with a run
 
Estidkhaar did all the donkey work in the Greenham and was coming back to Muhaarar (who got a lovely tow into the race behind Ivawood having been slightly slowly away - nothing detrimental about his start though) as they approached the line. I think he is crying out for a mile based on that and, as Ron says, connections have hinted Muhaarar will likely go to France. Plus they smashed the track record. The best bit of proven 3YO form about.
 
Ron said:
I think it is expected that Muharaar will be diverted to the French version of the 2000 Guineas "to make best use of his undoubted speed." That would possibly explain the price Shergs. If he does go in the 2000 he will be much shorter. See if you can get 20/1 with a run
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That would explain it then Ron, I thought 20/1 seemed abit to good to be true. Will the French race really play to his strengths though? As it's normally soft over there, I'm not sure that would suit.

OddDog said:
Estidkhaar did all the donkey work in the Greenham and was coming back to Muhaarar (who got a lovely tow into the race behind Ivawood having been slightly slowly away - nothing detrimental about his start though) as they approached the line. I think he is crying out for a mile based on that and, as Ron says, connections have hinted Muhaarar will likely go to France. Plus they smashed the track record. The best bit of proven 3YO form about.
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No it wasn't detrimental, but it probably cost him a little. If he was away quicker, he'd of won quite comfortably.

I didn't realise they smashed the track record though, it's almost making me want to back Estidkhaar, assuming Muharaar isn't running.

If I was the owner though, id run the pair, as it's better to have 2 chances than 1 :biggrin:
 
Imo that form will not hold up! Ivawood- no idea what happened still a big fan of te horse, Estidkhaar will always be a nearly horse and Muhaarar will contest the European classics as he wont be good enough for the English ones ! If the former two meet again the form will be turned Ivawood looks to have more in his locker based on last year!
 
Intriguing race. Apparently there was quite a strong following wind, which may have helped times.

Both could be 7f specialists as their breeding is very much slanted to speed, but if the right Oasis Dream genes pass on Muhaarar could get further. Estidhkaar (bugger to spell) is no more likely to get 8f than Muhaarar though.

I'll be interested in Hughes choice of mount in the race. I suppose it's a choice between Kool Kompany and Ivawood. I like KK but he won't get the easy lead he had in the Craven and the running of the race may not suit him. If Ivawood is Hughes's choice I'd take an interest in him. He has more stamina in his pedigree than his opponents on Saturday. Apparently Hughes was stood down after the Greenham with a bad chest infection: probably didn't effect the result. If Hughes selects KK, I'd look elsewhere.
 
From what I read in the Racing Post, Hamdan Al Maktoum has decided the following plans for his horses:

Estidhkaar will be running in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas, hence the odds contracting.
Muhaarar will be running in the Longchamp Prix d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), so do not touch the 20/1 for Newmarket.
Zawraq will be running in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and will be heading for the Epsom Derby, so do not touch the 12/1 for Newmarket.
Nafaqa is also being targeted at the Epsom Derby, presumably via one of the English Trials.
 
To be quite frank, whether or not the runner up is looking for a mile, he does not strike me as a 2000 Guineas winner. I'd be quite fearful of a French winner at this stage based on what I have seen.

If he were to be confirmed I personally don't see anything beating Zawraq of Dermot Welds. However Weld seemed pretty confident that he was more a Derby horse and hence he looks like being campaigned that way (odds of 55.0 on Betfair for the Guineas seem to indicate that).

Will AOB run one of his Derby hopefuls in the Guineas? He obviously looks to go that route when he can for stud value, which explains his constant referrals to all his regally bred horses of 'having plenty of pace'.
 
TopClass, you are not the only one that is keeping an eye on Zawraq. Of those with a single digit ante post price for the Epsom Derby, he is the only one that I would consider at the moment.

As I stated in a previous posting, his owner has already told the media (via his racing manager) that the horse will not be running in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but is being targeted at the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown.

Other breaking news that might be of interest to Classic punters is that current 1000 Guineas favourite Found is not certain to show up as she faces a “make-or-break gallop” on Saturday according to trainer Aidan O’Brien speaking to the Racing Post.
 
TopClass said:
To be quite frank, whether or not the runner up is looking for a mile, he does not strike me as a 2000 Guineas winner. I'd be quite fearful of a French winner at this stage based on what I have seen.
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I'd be interested to hear your thoughts behind that assessment Toppy. If I am honest, I haven't taken a serious interest in flat racing for the past 3 years so I may be barking up completely the wrong tree, but I thought Estidkhaar was coming back to his stablemate at the line and, having done the donkey work up front for most of the Greenham, I thought he would appreciate the extra furlong, especially if dropped in and ridden handy. Why do you say he doesn't strike you as a Guineas winner?
 
I think for me Oddy its not really about him coming back at the line. In fact, I'd be the first to agree that he needs trying at a mile.

My thinking is that Ivawood will be a non-stayer, and that the winner won with no excuses yet isn't even aiming at Newmarket and looks set to contest the French version. On paper and hype it looked a Greenham with depth, but I think in reality none of them will be 1m Group1 horses.

Nothing against any of them though and you never know what might happen on the day, but for me I just don't see them threatening to win a classic.
 
TopClass said:
I think for me Oddy its not really about him coming back at the line. In fact, I'd be the first to agree that he needs trying at a mile.

My thinking is that Ivawood will be a non-stayer, and that the winner won with no excuses yet isn't even aiming at Newmarket and looks set to contest the French version. On paper and hype it looked a Greenham with depth, but I think in reality none of them will be 1m Group1 horses.

Nothing against any of them though and you never know what might happen on the day, but for me I just don't see them threatening to win a classic.
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Sound reasoning mate, as always <ok>
 
Haven't even thought about the Derby yet Toppy, I like to see the Guineas, Dante and Derrinstown plus probably the Chester meeting before I start forming an opinion. Everything else is just "potential" at the moment. I'm a bit sad to see the Sandown classic trial so poorly attended today - just 4 runners and only 1 of them with a Derby entry. I think Shergar won this and the Chester Vase before triumphing at Epsom. Mind you, back in 1981 the Classic Trial would have been part of that wonderful mixed card on Whitbread Gold Cup Saturday ......................
 
Yes Shergar won the race by 10 lengths, without breaking sweat. After a moderate 2yo season, it was the first time he showed how good he was.

Back in those days though, the race had a much higher standing, and looking at the field today, I'd be suprised if anything layed down a marker for Epsom :biggrin:
 
My views are that Estikdaar did well but will not stay the mile well enough to win a Guineas, this is not to say he wont stay, and in lesser company could win at the distance but 6-7 furlongs will be his optimal. Muaraar has the best trial form so far in my view as he quickened well and won convincingly in a good field.

However

The best form on show at a mile this season so far was in the maiden that took place later on the Greenham card - if you can watch it via the link below please do it's contains a genuine whooooosh moment that gets your heart going.

The horse is Intilaaq trained by Roger Varien. He travelled beautifully and made the pace and had everything behind (some well fancied horses) struggling to keep up. Hanagan asks him to stretch his legs just over a furlong out and he accelerates like a sprinter and wins 8 lengths going away.

Time
I questioned what I had seen at first as this was a maiden and did some homework the time was over 3 seconds faster than the Craven, 9 seconds faster than the group 2 betfred Mile at Sandown today, his time was only 100th of a second slower than Mister Bailey's Guineas record. When compared to the Lockinge Group 1 held at the same track only one horse in Rakti has won that race in a time faster than Intilaaq won in nearly fifty years, which was as far as I went back.

The travesty is he is not in the Guineas as if he was I would have a serious bet - Someone has said he will go for the Derby and they instantly put him in at 16's. In my view they have no idea what they are talking about. This is a miler of class and his acceleration is not that of a Derby horse. If they are embarrassed about running inferior animals in the trails whilst someone never highlighted this one then get over it and wait for the classics to pass and show them all a clean pair of heels at Royal Ascot. This is a serious horse.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...-tennis-championships-maiden-stakes-div-1-str
 
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Too early to say he won't stay. A lot of Derby winners would have won that race in the same way. Not saying he will, but no reason at this point to say he won't.
 
That was hugely impressive. I think Varian finds out in a few days whether they will stump up the £30k to supplement him (for the Guineas).

He showed some serious turn of foot- at first I thought he was keen in front but having seen what he did in the last 2 furlongs he probably just has a high cruising speed!
 
No idea if he'll run but I've taken a slice of 14s e/w tonight on Intilaaq for the Guineas, if he gets supplemented tomorrow he'll be down around 4s I reckon and that was a seriously impressive performance.
 
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