Daily Racing Thread Thursday 2nd. April 2015

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Evening/ Morning fellas, busy tomorrow so I've had a look and I have decided to change my selections and rate them with a point rating, I'll be playing the 5 Point ones but fancy them:

1- 5 Point confidence guide

  • 330 Ludlow- Broxbourne 8/11
  • 5 Point Win
8/11 seemed like a very good price after all :). Won easily

Ran in 2 very good races this season and against the other mares i only see 1 winner.

  • 430 Ludlow- Foxtail Hill 9/2
  • 2 point
Ran well and tired late, ready to strike soon

Ran 137 days ago in a race that has turned out to be fairly decent. I know Dr Newland has the favourite put again only 5 days after its last run but I don't see any improvement in that horse and whilst it sets the standard this one could improve!!

  • 530 Ludlow- Clyne 4/1
  • 4 Point win

Clyne has only ran the twice but he is related to Zamdy Man and with the others being exposed and Jimmy The Jetplane unlikely to run it could be a good oppurtunity.

  • 250 Taunton- Princess Ombu 9/4
  • 5 Point win Nap
Very close but its a winner I guess :)

Princess Ombu ran a 26 days ago and that was in a fairly decent race @ Sandown. This horse was up there till the last but then the ground came into play. Put away for better ground and i can see this one hosing up.

  • 350 Taunton- Earthmoves 11/8
  • 5 Point win
Made a bad mistake and worth another go off of this mark, just didnt jump well enough.

This is simple won by 10 lengths and easy, out fairly quick and out fairly quick for a follow up, related to Ptit Zig

  • 420 Taunton- Typical Oscar 9/4
  • 5 Point win

I've banged on about Blake's form the last 3 days and I won't stop now.

(I will trebling up these 3 at Taunton)

  • 210 Wolves- Cocker
  • 2 Point win
It may be worth putting this one in your tracker as it may have finished tailed off but it was the paddock pick and I have a feeling he will pop up soon when the moneys down.

This is a brother to Brown Panther so im hoping the step up in 4f will bring out some improvement.

  • 410 Wolves- Loraine 9/4
  • 3 Point win
Very strange run, i would forgive next time and they went really fast

Seems to be improving and i can see it placing at very least. Kirby on board

440 Wolves- Dark Profit 11/4
5 Point win

Good run in 2nd.
Fantastic form last year and now up in trip which has been seen to good effect when his relatives have done the same.


All the greens i will back in singles and multiples but the rest i wait for the market to form before committing :). (184/1 Acca for the 5 point selections)
 
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4:00 Ludlow - RIO MILAN 12/1

Time to be bold as it's only a 7 runner race and if I back it eway it will only come bleeding 3rd!!

Won over CD last year, plenty of subsequent winners in behind. Upped to 3m last couple of runs and ran poorly. Expect it to appreciate the return to shorter on better ground.

Good luck all!!
 
Boily lad, TYPICAL OSCAR my main fancy tomorrow but frget 9/4, you can back it at 3/1. I also like DARK PROFIT that you have put up as I followed it last season, looks decent value to beat that favourite.
 
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BAILY GREEN 6.35 CLONMEL (EACH WAY)

Baily Green finally competes in a race where he has a chance. Runner up to Simonsig in the 2013 Arkle, the horse has been mainly competing in Grade 1s and 2s since. He returned to Cheltenham in 2014 and was still travelling well when falling four from home in the Champion Chase behind Sire De Grugy. He was then beaten 8ls in Punchestown’s Champion Chase by Sizing Europe, rated 160, and finished ahead of Somersby, 164, and Twinlight, 157. This season hasn’t been a brilliant season but it has seen his mark drop to 145. He has been running against the likes of Don Cossack and Road To Riches this season but what is significant is that the horse swerved Cheltenham this year. Morris has popped cheekpieces on the gelding and David Casey has been replaced by Mark Enright. He is very well in, in the context of this race. He is 4-9 outside of graded company chases and though he was only fourth of nine last time, he had no chance at the weights with Turban. He meets the weakest opposition he has met since winning a novice chase in 2012.

Colbert Station is sure to be popular with Ruby Walsh riding for his father. He run okay in a weaker race than this last time when fifth to She’s Got Grit and all four in front of him were lesser rated horses. Before that he was well beaten in a chase where no horse was rated over 140. He hasn’t won since he won the Paddy Power Handicap in December 2012 yet is still 6lbs higher. He is just 2-16 in chases.

Hellberemembered is 12 now but his second to Rubi Light in a Veterans race last time reads well. He should be able to beat Baily Green on a tenuous line through Rubi Light on that form but he can’t beat Baily Green on a previous meeting with Rubi Light. He gets to race off 5lbs lower here than last time. The jockey is a huge concern as he is 0-116 in the last 12 months and 1-154 since January 2014. The horses may well be remembered but I doubt the jockey will.

Make A Track had a hard race when ninth in the Grade 3 Plate at the festival. He made mistakes, got hampered and still managed to lead until two out. He has his conditions today and is 4lbs lower than he was at Cheltenham. However, Make A Track has only ever won two chases and both those wins were when he was the highest rated horse in the race. He is 0-10 when racing against higher rated horses and has never placed in any chase when there is a horse at least 5lbs better than him.

You Must Know Me beat a load of horses rated less than 120 when winning his novice last May and only has a hurdle race to his name since. He was beaten half a length by Boston Bob in 2012. He has only raced six times in two years which would suggest he may have had a problem. He should run well but he is 0-6 going right handed.

Gold Bullet was fancied for the Kim Muir last time but finished tailed off. He previously finished 1.5ls ahead of Colbert Station in January and is 6lbs worse off today. He was 30ls behind Make A Track in December and is only 2lbs better in today. His task looks difficult though he has his ideal conditions and he is 4-7 on right handed undulating tracks. With just three races since November 2013, he looks like he has been on the easy list.


Conclusion: The conditions of this race of having not won more than one chase in the last two years usually keeps the big guns out. However, Baily Green is a big gun who has been running against the very best but without winning. This is his easiest task for a long time and not crossing the Irish Sea in March will have benefitted the horse. If Morris has got the horse anywhere near his best, he will win this doing handstands. However, at current prices a bit of insurance can be bought by backing him to finish second as well.
 
In the 4.00 I think Workbench has a chance @ 5s.
Been running ok in better company on softer ground and will prefer this ground today.
This stiff track will be ideal for him too!!
 
Ron said:
Ludlow 4.00 It's A Steal. And so it is at 4/1
Click to expand...
I think I have to side with drever Ron rio was 11 lengths behind steel a while back but with a 14lb swing in the weights and double figures it looks more than worthy of the risk
 
You See said:
I think I have to side with drever Ron rio was 11 lengths behind steel a while back but with a 14lb swing in the weights and double figures it looks more than worthy of the risk
Click to expand...
Well it was a steal at 4/1. It can be laid off now to ensure a small profit.
 
DreverSpur said:
4:00 Ludlow - RIO MILAN 12/1

Time to be bold as it's only a 7 runner race and if I back it eway it will only come bleeding 3rd!!

Won over CD last year, plenty of subsequent winners in behind. Upped to 3m last couple of runs and ran poorly. Expect it to appreciate the return to shorter on better ground.

Good luck all!!
Click to expand...

Chuffed to bits that I put my 'brave' undercrackers on <laugh>
 
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DreverSpur said:
4:00 Ludlow - RIO MILAN 12/1

Time to be bold as it's only a 7 runner race and if I back it eway it will only come bleeding 3rd!!

Won over CD last year, plenty of subsequent winners in behind. Upped to 3m last couple of runs and ran poorly. Expect it to appreciate the return to shorter on better ground.

Good luck all!!
Click to expand...

Nice punt Drever
 
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I hope all my followers took my advice and laid It's a Steal after all the mugs shortened it up <laugh><laugh><laugh>

Well done Drever and Uncle with Rio. Forecast wasn't bad either

Well done Rudebwoy with Tugboat

You lot are good
 
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