I wonder how it's being treated. If, as stated, there will be no surgery, I guess they will be treating with cortisone injection therapy. Whilst, according to tests on a small sample (around 40) nearly 90% of horses treated this way, initially responded well, around half actually suffered a recurrence. It's more likely though that this treatment would have to be repeated every couple of years, having less affect each time.
It's interesting that Dr. Richard Coomer of Cotts Equine Hospital in Narbarth, U.K., has pioneered another surgical technique that is markedly less traumatic than other forms of surgery. He performs an interspinous ligament desmotomy (ISLD) in the standing, sedated horse. On a similar sample, 95 % responded well and there were no recurrences. More detail can be read
here.
For the benefit of anyone who may not be inclined to read the full article, " The pain from ‘kissing spines comes from nerve endings where the interspinous ligament is attached to the bone. Tension and pull on the ligament from exercise and the demands placed on the horse’s back in various disciplines cause reflex muscle spasms that pull the spinous processes even closer together and worsen the condition.
So it would seem that this problem can not be left unattended.
Also, if no form of surgery is on the agenda, I would be very wary of backing The New One on his return. Even if he wins on his return, there is no guarantee that the problem will not recur.
Let's just hope he receives the best possible treatment to relieve any pain on a permanent basis.