Toby

Hope he is the new Kelvin Davis in staying against the odds .

 

Well it's all very nice, but all it really tells me is that he is respectful of the fans and really wants match time. If a loan player is asked by the media whether they would like to stay, the reply "God no, it's a nice place here but I can now earn three times as much at a bigger side and anyway £6-7 million for me? In your dreams!" would not go down well. If this happens then great but I think that we will have to dig a bit deeper to bring it off.

 

If we are to have a chance tho we need to pay more then the £6 odd millions. The £1.5m buy out clause screws us a bit.

 

But Madrid won't care who buys him, so long as they make a good profit. We can offer 1.5 million less than anyone else and there is no reason to reject the deal. Personally, I think Saints would be crazy not to spend up to 15 on him. They won't get anyone better. If Toby will sign, then money should be no object. Surely?

 

I would happily pay the bit extra if it meant we got him permanently ... if he was ours right now, we'd be asking for 15m-20m.

 

They may want to keep him? Or create a bidding war.

 

We may have to pay more if there was another strong offer, but, as pointed out, we have 1.5 million advantage on others. In another context, Les Reed said that we have limits and can't go beyond that for any player. That makes sense when you realise we are short of a few players and overpaying for one may mean you can't have another. We are in a good position...we have a deal in place (which can obviously go through quickly), we have the 1.5 million clause, and the player has indicated his happiness to stay...we have to just wait and see now.

 

As much as I like Alderweireld (and I like him a lot), the defense was still solid without him. Yoshida has been rather good, and behind him we have Gardos who I also think has played alright. And it's a position where we may also have some young players ready to step in as cover.

I wouldn't argue that he isn't worth 15 million (or more) based on talent. But given our budget, strengths and needs not sure Saints should pay that much. I'd be quite happy with 10m, could see stretching it beyond that a bit but not too much.

 

Are you offering to do that out of your own pocket?

 

I could go a fiver.

 

Let's just do the maths here.

At the end of the season, we will need to pay £6m if we want to activate the buy-clause price.

Atletico will only spend £1.5m to cancel the buy-clause if they know there are other parties who are willing to pay more than £7.5m. This is highly likely IMO, considering the quality that he has displayed this season.

Let's say a Atletico receive a bid from another club for £12m and decide to cancel the buy clause. The net funds they would receive for Toby would be £10.5m. However, if we were prepared to spend £11m on Toby, we could use the £1.5m Atletico had given us so he would cost us a net £9.5m, whilst still technically outbidding the rival £12m bid from Atletico's point of view. This puts us in a very strong position - we actually have a £3m advantage over other clubs.

 

Also remember that Toby can't be made to go anywhere that he doesn't want to go. He has a contract with Atletico so he has to go back there if he is recalled, but, for sell on, they need his cooperation. There will be a lot of discussions before this is settled. And, sadly for us, Toby may change his mind if an actual offer was on the table. I hope that Atletico may go for a quick sale to us, especially if sweetened.

 

Gardos is a way from being regular.

 

Prunes?

 

If we bid 11m and that includes 1.5m from Atletico, then Atletico only nets 9.5m on that sale. Our bidding advantage comes from our ability to waive the the 1.5m buyout clause.

 

I don't think your maths is right here. You appear to be double counting the £1.5m. If we are prepared to "spend" £11m, as you have said, then the actual bid would be £12.5m. Athletico would receive £11m and we would have spent £11m. If we bid £11m then our spend would be £9.5m as you say but then Athletico would only receive £9.5m.

You appear to be double counting the £1.5m. The bottom line is that we can pay them £1.5m less than any other club for the bids to be equal.

 

I do feel we are now in a good position with Toby. He seems to be stating we would like to stay with us and that will factor into the final decision for Madrid. We seem to be in a good place and, importantly, it may affect the decision making of some of the other players who might be considering a move away.

 

Just in terms of tracking the bidding, it's good to know that an 9.5m bid from us could well be equivalent to some other team's 11m bid.

But it's not like Saints are actually getting Alderweireld any cheaper. We are bidding 9.5m, but the cost to Saints is still 11m.

 

There are only three types of accountants: those that can count and those that can't.

 

Calling Beddie...he's brilliant at maths