predictions for our 2014/5 final pts total
- Thread starter brian_66_usa
- Start date
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I know this is all pointless (pun probably intended) but for anyone who likes this sort of speculation...
Following the last round of games, and projecting the form over the last 12 to the final 12 we end up with...
Derby 91
Naarwich 90
Boro 87
WFC 86
Wolves 83
Bournemouth 81
Ipswich 78
Brentford 76
Every projection seems to make us 4th.
It's not more accurate, but using the last 10 games, and projecting forwards the next 10, we end up with 2 games to go...
Naarwich 86
Derby 85
WFC 83
Boro 82
and then...
Wolves 77
Brentford 76
Ipswich 73
Bournemouth 72
So 4 clubs fighting for top 2, covered by 4 points over the last 2 games.
In other words, it's going to come down to the last games!
In our case, it will be Brighton & wednesday, probably both with nothing to fight for.
Derby finish with Millwall (might be tricky if millwall not already down) and Reading
Boro finish with Fulham & brighton
Naarwich finish with Rotherham ( might be tricky) & Fulham
The good news is that Naarwich seem certain to win Mgr of month, which should see off their hopes!
The bad news is that we cannot influence Naarwichs final position at all, and I really didn't see them getting back up to top 3.
The other good news (for us) is that we have a strong squad, all now fit, and appear unflustered by going a goal or even 2 behind. It scares the hell out of me, but yesterday was amazing, and we could have had 5/6 - even though Leeds should have had 3.
All the clubs seem to be upping their game.
Anyway, I've had enough of this -it just adds to the stress!
Following the last round of games, and projecting the form over the last 12 to the final 12 we end up with...
Derby 91
Naarwich 90
Boro 87
WFC 86
Wolves 83
Bournemouth 81
Ipswich 78
Brentford 76
Every projection seems to make us 4th.
It's not more accurate, but using the last 10 games, and projecting forwards the next 10, we end up with 2 games to go...
Naarwich 86
Derby 85
WFC 83
Boro 82
and then...
Wolves 77
Brentford 76
Ipswich 73
Bournemouth 72
So 4 clubs fighting for top 2, covered by 4 points over the last 2 games.
In other words, it's going to come down to the last games!
In our case, it will be Brighton & wednesday, probably both with nothing to fight for.
Derby finish with Millwall (might be tricky if millwall not already down) and Reading
Boro finish with Fulham & brighton
Naarwich finish with Rotherham ( might be tricky) & Fulham
The good news is that Naarwich seem certain to win Mgr of month, which should see off their hopes!
The bad news is that we cannot influence Naarwichs final position at all, and I really didn't see them getting back up to top 3.
The other good news (for us) is that we have a strong squad, all now fit, and appear unflustered by going a goal or even 2 behind. It scares the hell out of me, but yesterday was amazing, and we could have had 5/6 - even though Leeds should have had 3.
All the clubs seem to be upping their game.
Anyway, I've had enough of this -it just adds to the stress!
I'll stick with my prediction of 6 clubs on equal points on the final day, which means that we have to improve our goal difference.
i agree Bodbo about the pointless bit the one thing that we all know is that very little gose to form..
looking at the number of the top 9 clubs play each other
derby has to play 5 of the top 9
boro has to play 7 of the top 9
norwich has to play 3 of the top 9
wfc has to play 5 of the top 9
ipswich has to play 6 of the top 9
wolves has to play 6 of the top 9
looking at the number of the top 9 clubs play each other
derby has to play 5 of the top 9
boro has to play 7 of the top 9
norwich has to play 3 of the top 9
wfc has to play 5 of the top 9
ipswich has to play 6 of the top 9
wolves has to play 6 of the top 9
Which all points to Naarwich (again)! If we lose out to Naarwich 'cos of hooligans little dive, it won't improve my BP one bit. In the USA i'd probably be able to sue!
It's now looking to me that instead of finishing above 1 of derby & boro to get into top 2, it's more like naarwich & Derby. Well, at least we can do that by beating derby.
If we can win 10 that will do it . the highest points received in the last 12 games is norwich with 28 followed by derby and wolves wth 26 then us and boro with 24
yorkshirehornet
Well-Known Member
Thanks for... erm...clarifying... things there
One thing we can be certain of here...... nothing is certain
All I can say is if we carry on playing like we have.... we will be up there......
I really think it will be those clubs that falter now that will decide.... as most of the top 8 have been playing so well over the last couple of months...
yorkshirehornet
Well-Known Member
Oh yes..... now that is interesting.... and will Bournemouth recover from their blip..
I must say our resolve on Saturday was tremendous.... if we keep playing like we have...... we will ship goals..... and score a few toooo
Another encouraging thing is that we have just strengthened our squad - significantly, in the department that most hurts other teams - the powerful midfielder who can score. (guedioura). Shame that Derby have lost Bent for 4 weeks, and Martin and eustace are out for a spell. Dear me, it's getting sad when I start looking at other teams injury lists!
The best thing about sat. was that Vydra was played in his natural position - resulting in ... goals! I think now that if all the teams play to their best, we will simply score more goals than we concede. Assuming all the games are fair (!), and we don't get any more hool(igan)ahan moments, we are probably better equipped than the other clubs. 2 more wins in next 2 games could make things VERY interesting !
yorkshirehornet
Well-Known Member
we will win tonight .Then the grim reaper will be going to the wolves game (ie me ) so im hoping for a draw from that game lol
It would be nice to think that recent results set up future ones. On that basis if you take the average points each of the top 8 have received for the last 5, 10 or even 15 games then Norwich always come top and we always come second. Middlesbrough, Derby and Brentford make the play offs in all three cases but the final spot belongs to either Bournemouth or Ipswich. The average extrapolated points totals are:
1 Norwich 93
2 Watford 91
3 Middlesbro 87
4 Derby 83
5 Brentford 81
6 Ipswich 79+
7 Bournemouth 79-
8 Wolves 77
The above takes no account of differences in home and away form nor teams playing each other.
Unfortunately one or two "unexpected" results turn everything upside down - Derby were cruising along clear top only two games ago.
A couple of facts though - we now have 5 more points than we obtained in the whole of last season - and we are also 5 points ahead of the number of points we had after 35 games two years ago when we missed out by a whisker.
1 Norwich 93
2 Watford 91
3 Middlesbro 87
4 Derby 83
5 Brentford 81
6 Ipswich 79+
7 Bournemouth 79-
8 Wolves 77
The above takes no account of differences in home and away form nor teams playing each other.
Unfortunately one or two "unexpected" results turn everything upside down - Derby were cruising along clear top only two games ago.
A couple of facts though - we now have 5 more points than we obtained in the whole of last season - and we are also 5 points ahead of the number of points we had after 35 games two years ago when we missed out by a whisker.
I hope you are right on your predictions leo .As has been said before position is everything pts mean almost nothing. i can see norwich pulling away from the pack they have both middlesbro and derby at home .middlesbro has to play most of the top sides , and derby cant score away from home (lost there last 2 both 2 nil) away at brighton and fulham . For any of the rest to get into the top 2 they will have to win 9 or 10 of there last games and i dont think they can.i think it will boil down to the following
1/ current form over the 6 to 10 games
2/ who you have to play
3/ beleave that whatever is the current score you can still get the 3 pts
4/ losing key players with injury or bookings (ie bent not currently playing for derby)
our next 6 games is the key if we can get 12 pts or more from them then that set us up nicely for the last 5 games
1/ current form over the 6 to 10 games
2/ who you have to play
3/ beleave that whatever is the current score you can still get the 3 pts
4/ losing key players with injury or bookings (ie bent not currently playing for derby)
our next 6 games is the key if we can get 12 pts or more from them then that set us up nicely for the last 5 games
Nope, still not going to bother..... Hell's bells the stress!!!
There has been very few seasons (in my 48 years with wfc) that there had been little or no stress we the WATFORD always do it the hard way .
Tonight we have Leeds v Ipswich and Norwich v Wigan games that could have a bearing on the top of the table. Get an upset in either of those games and it throws all the stats up in the air again. Norwich should win with some ease, but not so sure about Ipswich.
I will be keeping a watch on both games.
I will be keeping a watch on both games.
Very true ,and between now and the end of the season all teams will be droping points we just have to drop less.