Remaing fixtures.

[goldeneadie]

Just trolled through the top sixes remaining fixtures, and one thing stood out. Middlesbrough have to play away against all except the binners. Away to Derbyshire and Bournemouth in the same week 17/21 March. This could be a defining week for all the main contenders.

 

[THURNBY YELLOW]

Interesting GE but strangely I reckon that playing away at certain crunch times can be an advantage. Sometimes the pressure of playing at home tends to force the home team and panic and frustration from the fans can take over. I reflect the Easter weekend when we got promoted from the Championship, where Cardiff were at home and totally capitulated to Boro (ironically enough) something like 1-5 whereas we went away to Portsmouth with less pressure and won 0-1. Just a thought.

 

[Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed]

Having done some predictions myself, and being as fair and generous to everyone, so no real shocks (ie close to best case scenario), I went through all the top six teams final 15 (or 16) games and here were the results and final league placings.

Bournemouth to pick up 28 points from final 15 games
Derby 31 from 16
Middlesbrough 29 from 16
Ipswich 29 from 15
Watford 28 from 15
Norwich 31 from 15

This meant final placings of:

1 Derby 90
2 Bournemouth 87 (on GD)
3 Middlesbrough 87
4 Ipswich 86
5 Norwich 85
6 Watford 84

Just shows all the contenders have some good fixtures where they should expect to pick up maximum points. I think having done this exercise, top two became even less likely - despite us closing the gap massively.

 

[SUPERNORWICH 23]

Having done some predictions myself, and being as fair and generous to everyone, so no real shocks (ie close to best case scenario), I went through all the top six teams final 15 (or 16) games and here were the results and final league placings.

Bournemouth to pick up 28 points from final 15 games
Derby 31 from 16
Middlesbrough 29 from 16
Ipswich 29 from 15
Watford 28 from 15
Norwich 31 from 15

This meant final placings of:

1 Derby 90
2 Bournemouth 87 (on GD)
3 Middlesbrough 87
4 Ipswich 86
5 Norwich 85
6 Watford 84

Just shows all the contenders have some good fixtures where they should expect to pick up maximum points. I think having done this exercise, top two became even less likely - despite us closing the gap massively.

I see you have come to the conclusion that we will be playing Ipswich for a play off final place.

I strongly beleive we will finish top 2 .

 

[Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed]

Hadn't even realised that!

Also I notice I made a mistake - Norwich should be on 84 not 85 points.

Maths isn't my strong point!

 

[RiverEndRick]

I think your calculations are about right, Supers and I'd also be pleased if we could also overtake Watford and Ipswich, which would at least keep us in the hunt. To finish top 2 though, we'd really have to win against all the teams above us except Bournemouth to narrow the gap and win most of the other games as well.

 

[Canary Rob]

Having done some predictions myself, and being as fair and generous to everyone, so no real shocks (ie close to best case scenario), I went through all the top six teams final 15 (or 16) games and here were the results and final league placings.

Bournemouth to pick up 28 points from final 15 games
Derby 31 from 16
Middlesbrough 29 from 16
Ipswich 29 from 15
Watford 28 from 15
Norwich 31 from 15

This meant final placings of:

1 Derby 90
2 Bournemouth 87 (on GD)
3 Middlesbrough 87
4 Ipswich 86
5 Norwich 85
6 Watford 84

Just shows all the contenders have some good fixtures where they should expect to pick up maximum points. I think having done this exercise, top two became even less likely - despite us closing the gap massively.

I know you're just plugging in some random guesses, and it's not claiming to be scientific, but the table can't possibly look like that at the end of the season.

For a start, we've been on a record low for the leading team for most of the season until recently. Everything has pointed to a record low total and despite recent results I don't see that changing, along with a very low autos and top six. My best guess is that 84 points may well be enough to win the league.

And your table falls very much as current form to date. It's too narrow between the entire top six. At least one team and probably two will have a bad run that will knock them out of the title race. There's no way the table will look like it does now, but scaled up.

 

[Canary Rob]

Also, because we have to play both of the top two at home, you simply can't count those matches as anything other than must-win for the title. So the reality of our position (if we consider autos the aim) is that we are three points from top with them having a game in hand. Otherwise known as approximately five or six points off the top depending on goal difference.

With our run-in, there would no excuse for not winning the title IF we beat both of the leaders at home IMO. If we don't beat them both at home our chances range from slim to none.

So the only real question is, do you think we'll beat them both? I'm plumping for yes as I'm feeling optimistic

 

[SUPERNORWICH 23]

Also, because we have to play both of the top two at home, you simply can't count those matches as anything other than must-win for the title. So the reality of our position (if we consider autos the aim) is that we are three points from top with them having a game in hand. Otherwise known as approximately five or six points off the top depending on goal difference.

With our run-in, there would no excuse for not winning the title IF we beat both of the leaders at home IMO. If we don't beat them both at home our chances range from slim to none.

So the only real question is, do you think we'll beat them both? I'm plumping for yes as I'm feeling optimistic

I agree

 

[Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed]

Rob, I think you're assessing my predictions too much. It was, as I said, based on the top teams winning games you'd expect them to, so of course - in that scenario - it IS possible. But football doesn't work like that, as we know - if it did, nobody would bother with it. Its unpredictable, so for instance, I've predicted the top teams will win home games against teams from the bottom half but would maybe draw away to a team from the top half or lose to a team in the top six, and when I've predicted games between top six teams, the home side will win. Its not based on anything other than basic logic which dictates which would be the more likely outcome. I don't for one minute think all top six teams will post points totals like I've suggested. It was a five minute exercise to see where we stood and how easy it would be to catch up. From doing this, even if we went on a scintillating run of form, it would take some weird results to allow us to catch and overtake the current top three by game 46 - and THAT is why I did it. It's not as easy as just saying there's 6 points in it, as some people are suggesting. I think we'll run out of games.

 

[Canary Rob]

I acknowledged your predictions were just stabs in the dark. Not over-analysing.

What I was simply pointing out is that the end result of your predictions is highly unlikely. That's not your fault - if you were able to predict accurately you'd be a very rich man at the bookies!

However, you said that you thought there might be six points in it at the end of the season on the other thread. I accept there might, but that's less likely than us winning the league. It always becomes stretched, unless this is to be the exception.

As I said, I think we'll see it become strretrched very soon. Probably over the course of March. A couple of teams will plummet, one, two or even three will pull away. I hope we're in the latter group.

My real point, though, was that it is not unlikely that we will win the league. But it is now almost entirely dependent on a couple of key matches due to our failure to capitalise in November.

 

[Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed]

Well of course its highly unlikely! We could be completely out of it by Wednesday morning if we lose our next two tough away matches. In fact, we are now effectively only ever two poor results away from being completely out of it. I don't think you appreciate that it will take something a little extraordinary for Norwich to finish top (or top two for that matter).

 

[Canary Rob]

You "don't think (I) appreciate". I'm "assessing too much". You also always tell people they don't understand. Have you ever thought it might be simply that I disagree or that you are missing the nuance of what people write?

It's not simply unlikely, it's almost impossible that the table will lie as you predict or that it will be as narrow as six points between the top teams. It just doesn't work like that. Teams don't accrue points in linear fashion.

Posters on here who believe we might win the league or get autos are assessing it in a wholesome way. Our fixtures are incredibly favourable from hereon in. If you look at when it's best to gather form, we're also timing it perfectly.

The thing is, one defeat looks awful to the table. In reality it's only defeats against the top teams that will cost us, so long as the remaining games we get more than about 2 points or so a game (doesn't matter how or combo).

From here, we are more than capable of getting 85-90 points. So long as we beat the top teams, we'll definitely win the league on that basis.

So it's not half as unlikely as you make out. But it is entirely reliant on a handful of two or three fixtures going our way.

 

[Canary Rob]

Well I cocked up the italics!

 

[King_of_Portman_Rd]

Our fixtures are incredibly favourable from hereon in.

That is always a dangerous statement to make toward the sharp end of the championship season.. I have no doubt that the perceived 'easy' fixtures of Wigan, Millwall, Brighton, Rotherham etc. will trip a few people up (we already have ) between now and the close of play

 

[FleetCanary]

That is always a dangerous statement to make toward the sharp end of the championship season.. I have no doubt that the perceived 'easy' fixtures of Wigan, Millwall, Brighton, Rotherham etc. will trip a few people up (we already have ) between now and the close of play

I agree. Have we factored in the 'Fighting for their lives' scenario in the last 10 games, which rears it's head against unsuspecting 'superior' teams year in, year out?

 

[Canary Rob]

Fair point.

And we have been particularly guilty of dropping points against those teams...

my feeling, though, is that under Neil we are much more like pitiless bullies with those teams.

As ever, it could go pear-shaped. Lady luck playing the biggest part. But I'm more positive now than at any time this season.

 

[Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed]

Sorry Rob but I haven't read so much drivel in a post since the last time Warky posted three minutes ago. EVERY DEFEAT MATTERS, regardless of who its against because there are so many teams involved, and any defeat means its likely two, three, four or even all five teams above us might win on the same day. Lose at Blackburn for instance and it will be a disaster because the teams around us have very winnable games. That's a bloody tough game. I'd happily take a point there most seasons but we can't afford to next week - we HAVE to win it to keep pace. We are already playing catch up so any defeat means we have twice as far to catch up. It might not be double to all five teams, but two teams is one too many and highly likely given their consistency this season. Yes we can beat those around us, and I hope we do, but that only solves half the problem - and any dropped points in those key games will be a big problem. We aren't going to win every game. If we are to win the league I honestly don't see us being able to lose more than one fixture between now and the end of the season - maybe two at a push, so long as its not, as you say, against a competitor, and we'd have to win 10+. We'll need more than 2 points a game for a very long period. If that isn't 'highly unlikely' given that we're currently on about 1.7 per game, I don't know what is!

 

[JungleCanary]

I think the top 6 will remain the top 6 (goal difference indicates that) but there is a long way to go on final positions. Personally I think we have just a bit too much to do for autos but you never know, its possible but a very long shot. A play off spot is ours to lose though.

 

[Superman wears Grant Holt pyjamas in bed]

And I'm tremendously positive about this team and this manager by the way. I'm just being realistic. Others are getting carried away. We are far from favourites to get automatic promotion at this point because we've pretty much got to nail perfectly our run in. How many teams nail their run in? Three or four a decade? It's a massive ask. Its not simply a six point gap as some are making out. Its five teams, all of whom have been more consistent than us all season and won't just 'drop' as is being expected. One might - hell, two might. But four or five?

Take 9 points from the next 9 and we are serious contenders. But until then we are outsiders.