It's early days for the Supreme but definitely in with a big shout and it would not surprise if he started a single figure price.
Their Triumph horse, Peace and Co, looks special as well.
Cheltenham Ante Post 2015
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It's early days for the Supreme but definitely in with a big shout and it would not surprise if he started a single figure price.
Their Triumph horse, Peace and Co, looks special as well.
Oddy RE: SIGN OF A VICTORY I think you have had a right result with him being aimed at Kempton. This track will suit him to the absolute maximum as he is another speedball, very similar to MTOY. Looking forward to seeing how close he can push Faugheen. The key to him will be settling- so it depends on what Ruby does with Faugheen.
Point being that I think he could halve in price for March if he is good enough to make Faugheen fight.
Point being that I think he could halve in price for March if he is good enough to make Faugheen fight.
Fingers crossed Toppy - really looking forward to the Christmas Hurdle now and if Faugheen wins then he is a worthy Champion Hurdle favourite.
And because Peace And Co is so special it really wouldn’t surprise me if this season several juveniles bypass the Triumph Hurdle and are instead aimed at the ‘Supreme Novices’. Something else to bear in mind re ante-post betting on this terms Festival.
What ho Sir Barney and a merry bally Christmas. Mr Ricci has plenty of decent novices in his colours and it wouldn't surprise me to see his Kalkir dot up in the old Triumph 
Hi,Well before I start don't let Carlingford Lough under AP & The sundance kid go unbacked at 10s in the lexus tomorrow. If anyone doubts the class of Ruby Walsh on the big day look what happened yesterday without him. Townend cost me a massive accumulator with his disaster on Vautour. I will never back a horse he rides again. Here are my thoughts on the key races:
Supreme Novice
Wide open and still to develop as a market. I'm on Douvan who I saw live at Gowran at 12s. He is 6/1 now so i'm happy i've got value. and i'm happy with that. It is not a race i'll focus on much
Champion HurdleFaugheen will win this race about 95% sure. However the value has to be Jezki has been and done it prefers spring ground. With a bit of luck The Fly will beat him at leopardstown and push his price out. If he is pushed out to 7s got be EW value. It's a poor division this year and tbh a tricast of faugheen, TNO and Jezki is probably possible. I'm hoping PP do a money back if faugheen wins deal. They usually have a great deal on day one. Recommend: Jezki each-way.
ArkleUn de Seaux pure and simple. I'm on at 5/1 now 3s. If he stays on his feet he wins. Nothing will touch him and Vautour goes to JLT. QMCC
This market lacks clarity. I am on Simply Ned ew at 33s and I am hopeful he will place. Of course it's hard to know without seeing if Sprinter and Sire de grugy will be fit. Champagne Fever jumped great in the king george but didn't stay. Surely they must go fo this? He is 16s antepost in places. Naturally if the black aeroplane is back to his best then he is a monster shout.
Neptune
I'm quite smug about this one as i'm on Tell us More at 20/1. He is 8s now. Very confident pick.
RSA (Novice Gold Cup)
Hard to know what the field will be here. I backed Southfield Theatre antepost which I acknowledge as a mistake.Kings Palace at 6/1 seems solid here but he did fail at the festival last year. This might be a wait and see job....
World Hurdle
I don't know much about this one and again i'm interested in opinions on this one. I guess we need to see if Moreofthat recovers. I had a very small play on Zarkandar at 14/1 but I know he may not stay but i'm hoping his class may shine.
JLT Novice Chase
Looks like Vautour will go here. He is pushed out and has to be a great price at around 5s. Yesterday was a mishap and once his camp don't reveal any injuries etc. then I think it is well worth getting stuck in. Although Gilgamboa has jumped great and will have AP on board on the day so I'll wait for now.
Triumph
I accept the Henderson fav here may be a machine but he is too skinny for me. The Mullins horse Kailkar has been pushed out to 8s after yesterday and I reckon that's a major over-reaction. It was horrendous conditions yesterday. Under Ruby in spring time I think you will seehim do much better. I also like Hargem and think he will continue to improve and at 14/1 given two excellent runs at cheltenham already I think this is the value. I haven't played yet.
Gold Cup
Really fascinating this year. I went in for Conti at 9snow 4s and think I'll stick with him. It be great if he pulled off a treble. There are 4 /5 others in with a shout so I guess the lexus will tell us more too.My ill-informed two cents anyway. Best of luck.
Supreme Novice
Wide open and still to develop as a market. I'm on Douvan who I saw live at Gowran at 12s. He is 6/1 now so i'm happy i've got value. and i'm happy with that. It is not a race i'll focus on much
Champion HurdleFaugheen will win this race about 95% sure. However the value has to be Jezki has been and done it prefers spring ground. With a bit of luck The Fly will beat him at leopardstown and push his price out. If he is pushed out to 7s got be EW value. It's a poor division this year and tbh a tricast of faugheen, TNO and Jezki is probably possible. I'm hoping PP do a money back if faugheen wins deal. They usually have a great deal on day one. Recommend: Jezki each-way.
ArkleUn de Seaux pure and simple. I'm on at 5/1 now 3s. If he stays on his feet he wins. Nothing will touch him and Vautour goes to JLT. QMCC
This market lacks clarity. I am on Simply Ned ew at 33s and I am hopeful he will place. Of course it's hard to know without seeing if Sprinter and Sire de grugy will be fit. Champagne Fever jumped great in the king george but didn't stay. Surely they must go fo this? He is 16s antepost in places. Naturally if the black aeroplane is back to his best then he is a monster shout.
Neptune
I'm quite smug about this one as i'm on Tell us More at 20/1. He is 8s now. Very confident pick.
RSA (Novice Gold Cup)
Hard to know what the field will be here. I backed Southfield Theatre antepost which I acknowledge as a mistake.Kings Palace at 6/1 seems solid here but he did fail at the festival last year. This might be a wait and see job....
World Hurdle
I don't know much about this one and again i'm interested in opinions on this one. I guess we need to see if Moreofthat recovers. I had a very small play on Zarkandar at 14/1 but I know he may not stay but i'm hoping his class may shine.
JLT Novice Chase
Looks like Vautour will go here. He is pushed out and has to be a great price at around 5s. Yesterday was a mishap and once his camp don't reveal any injuries etc. then I think it is well worth getting stuck in. Although Gilgamboa has jumped great and will have AP on board on the day so I'll wait for now.
Triumph
I accept the Henderson fav here may be a machine but he is too skinny for me. The Mullins horse Kailkar has been pushed out to 8s after yesterday and I reckon that's a major over-reaction. It was horrendous conditions yesterday. Under Ruby in spring time I think you will seehim do much better. I also like Hargem and think he will continue to improve and at 14/1 given two excellent runs at cheltenham already I think this is the value. I haven't played yet.
Gold Cup
Really fascinating this year. I went in for Conti at 9snow 4s and think I'll stick with him. It be great if he pulled off a treble. There are 4 /5 others in with a shout so I guess the lexus will tell us more too.My ill-informed two cents anyway. Best of luck.
Neptune - 14/1 Parlour Games
RSA - 8/1 Don Poli
JLT - 6/1 Valseur Lido
World Hurdle - 14/1 lieutenant Colonel
Gold Cup - 10/1 Road to Riches
I think i can go to war very happy with those prices come March.
RSA - 8/1 Don Poli
JLT - 6/1 Valseur Lido
World Hurdle - 14/1 lieutenant Colonel
Gold Cup - 10/1 Road to Riches
I think i can go to war very happy with those prices come March.
First antepost bet made last night on MONKSLAND 20/1 (Ladbrokes World Hurdle).
A satisfactory reappearance, tenderly handled never nearer 3rd. Hopefully he can stay healthy and sound and on good ground, his fluent hurdling and classy hold up style should see him go really well in what looks a puzzling World Hurdle.
A satisfactory reappearance, tenderly handled never nearer 3rd. Hopefully he can stay healthy and sound and on good ground, his fluent hurdling and classy hold up style should see him go really well in what looks a puzzling World Hurdle.
Paddy Power is non-runner = no-bet at the 4 big Cheltenham Festival races per e-mail just received from PP.
Apparently this is Pricewises pick for the Champion Hurdle
Arctic Fire can improve and looks value at 25-1
TIMING is a vital component of a good ante-post bet and if truth be told today is probably not the ideal day to get stuck into the Stan James Champion Hurdle. That is because the two horses at the head of the market have been superb this season and appear to have rock-solid credentials. Anything outside the top four in the market is going to have to improve a lot to get involved, let alone win, writes Tom Segal.
The problem for ante-post punters - and it is a reoccurring theme these days - is that there really is no point in backing Faugheen or The New One now as they will almost certainly be bigger prices on the day, when the bookies start to get competitive and try to attract the casual punters. With ten weeks to go, however much you fancy Faugheen, you would have to be mad to back him now at 5-4.
That is not to say I don't think Faugheen won't win, because he has looked brilliant on all starts, but he has never taken on a horse anything like as good as The New One or Jezki, or indeed his superstar stablemate Hurricane Fly.
The New One was unlucky last year and I think he would have won if he hadn't been badly hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor.
He has looked an even better horse this year, jumping with a lot more fluidity, and of the two at the head of the market, I marginally prefer The New One at this stage.
However, exactly the same reasoning applies to him as to Faugheen. I don't think there is anything The New One can do before March to make his price contract from the 11-4 it is now. Sure, if something was to happen to Faugheen he would get shorter, but he'll be at least 3-1 on the day if the principals all turn up.
It would be easy just to tick off last year's winner Jezki as the value at 6-1, given how much he improved in the hood last season. However, I thought last year's Champion Hurdle fell apart with Our Conor coming down and taking out The New One, My Tent or Yours pulling like a mustang and only just failing to get up, and Hurricane Fly running miles below form.
Yes, he looked good at Punchestown afterwards but that was a three-runner race and once again the Fly was nowhere near his best.
Jezki is clearly a very good horse, but he's not a brilliant one and I can't see him beating Faugheen or The New One, which makes his current price pretty unappetising.
In terms of form there can be no doubt the dual winner and 21-time Grade 1 winner Hurricane Fly is a silly price at 14-1.
However, Cheltenham is not his ideal track and I thought he was struggling on the spring ground last season. He simply didn't look happy at Cheltenham or Punchestown and if the Fly is to regain his crown the ground is going to have to be soft.
It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the Fly were kept at home and saved for Punchestown this season, with the stable having Faugheen, so I can't suggest backing him now either.
Consequently, the only semblance of value left is with another horse trained by Willie Mullins, Arctic Fire at 25-1 with one of the firms who are non-runner no bet.
He surprised a few with his run behind Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown last week but didn't surprise me, and a strongly run two-mile hurdle on faster ground at Cheltenham should see him improve again.
Arctic Fire finished only a length behind Jezki that day but is five times the price and he can improve again in a better race.
He will need a strong pace, but JP McManus ran a pacemaker last year and two at Leopardstown, so I can't imagine there will be anything but a strong pace in March and if that's the case, Arctic Fire could certainly hit the frame.
Stan James Champion Hurdle ante-post advice
Arctic Fire
1pt each-way at 25-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, who are both non-runner no bet
Arctic Fire can improve and looks value at 25-1
TIMING is a vital component of a good ante-post bet and if truth be told today is probably not the ideal day to get stuck into the Stan James Champion Hurdle. That is because the two horses at the head of the market have been superb this season and appear to have rock-solid credentials. Anything outside the top four in the market is going to have to improve a lot to get involved, let alone win, writes Tom Segal.
The problem for ante-post punters - and it is a reoccurring theme these days - is that there really is no point in backing Faugheen or The New One now as they will almost certainly be bigger prices on the day, when the bookies start to get competitive and try to attract the casual punters. With ten weeks to go, however much you fancy Faugheen, you would have to be mad to back him now at 5-4.
That is not to say I don't think Faugheen won't win, because he has looked brilliant on all starts, but he has never taken on a horse anything like as good as The New One or Jezki, or indeed his superstar stablemate Hurricane Fly.
The New One was unlucky last year and I think he would have won if he hadn't been badly hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor.
He has looked an even better horse this year, jumping with a lot more fluidity, and of the two at the head of the market, I marginally prefer The New One at this stage.
However, exactly the same reasoning applies to him as to Faugheen. I don't think there is anything The New One can do before March to make his price contract from the 11-4 it is now. Sure, if something was to happen to Faugheen he would get shorter, but he'll be at least 3-1 on the day if the principals all turn up.
It would be easy just to tick off last year's winner Jezki as the value at 6-1, given how much he improved in the hood last season. However, I thought last year's Champion Hurdle fell apart with Our Conor coming down and taking out The New One, My Tent or Yours pulling like a mustang and only just failing to get up, and Hurricane Fly running miles below form.
Yes, he looked good at Punchestown afterwards but that was a three-runner race and once again the Fly was nowhere near his best.
Jezki is clearly a very good horse, but he's not a brilliant one and I can't see him beating Faugheen or The New One, which makes his current price pretty unappetising.
In terms of form there can be no doubt the dual winner and 21-time Grade 1 winner Hurricane Fly is a silly price at 14-1.
However, Cheltenham is not his ideal track and I thought he was struggling on the spring ground last season. He simply didn't look happy at Cheltenham or Punchestown and if the Fly is to regain his crown the ground is going to have to be soft.
It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the Fly were kept at home and saved for Punchestown this season, with the stable having Faugheen, so I can't suggest backing him now either.
Consequently, the only semblance of value left is with another horse trained by Willie Mullins, Arctic Fire at 25-1 with one of the firms who are non-runner no bet.
He surprised a few with his run behind Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown last week but didn't surprise me, and a strongly run two-mile hurdle on faster ground at Cheltenham should see him improve again.
Arctic Fire finished only a length behind Jezki that day but is five times the price and he can improve again in a better race.
He will need a strong pace, but JP McManus ran a pacemaker last year and two at Leopardstown, so I can't imagine there will be anything but a strong pace in March and if that's the case, Arctic Fire could certainly hit the frame.
Stan James Champion Hurdle ante-post advice
Arctic Fire
1pt each-way at 25-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair, who are both non-runner no bet
Those firms going NRNB on the Championship races have shortened Sprinter Sacre into around the 7/4 to 2/1 mark. There is some 11/4 still about but I am assuming that does not include NRNB.
But surely when he runs at ascot and if he wins which is probable he wil go 6/5 11/10 best price I took some of the 4/1 before his gallop at Newbury and skybet who was NRNB was 11/4 before it
But as someone said (can't remember whO) but Henderson would not have let him near the public eye if he was not impressing at home so imo unless something goes wrong at ascot he will turn up at Cheltenham and win
Cheltenham Foxhunter's Chase
Paint The Clouds 7/1
My first antepost bet for Cheltenham comes in the shape of Paint The Clouds 7/1 for the Foxhunters Chase I genuinely think he's a penalty kick as long as the ground is decent as I think he's that far ahead of anything that will line up against him. Now a 10 year old, Paint The Clouds has had an injury hit career but Warren Greatrex's inmate seems to be sound for the first time in a few years and had a perfect season last year winning all 3 of his Hunter Chases in facile fashion as he signed off the season with a bloodless victory in the Champion Hunter Chase at Stratford last May taking his record to 5 wins from 5 over regulation fences. Although he's probably not faced anything substantial in those 5 easy wins, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the best Hunter Chaser around. Back in 2011, Paint The Clouds racked up 5 straight wins (3 over hurdles, two over fences) before a handicap success off a mark of 130 at Cheltenham that October where he was dismounted after the line and Warren Greatrex has since been revealed that McCoy told him he'd win the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle after that win. Obviously he didn't say fit then but he's now proven himself to be fit but I think it says so, so much about how highly he is rated that after a 518 day absence he made his reappearance from injury in the 2013 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle at the Festival. Unfortunately he pulled muscles during that race after the ground went soft but thankfully he's back to full health now. Rated 137 after his Hunter Chase successes last year, I have a sneaking suspicion that he'll be entered in the Grand National by the Greatrex team and off that I mark if he jumped well and stayed the mammoth trip I think he'd take a boat load of beating - such is how highly I rate him. I'll be backing him every week between now and March and I genuinely believe if the ground hasn't turned soft (which is a risk) he'll be victorious if he jumps around.
Paint The Clouds 7/1
My first antepost bet for Cheltenham comes in the shape of Paint The Clouds 7/1 for the Foxhunters Chase I genuinely think he's a penalty kick as long as the ground is decent as I think he's that far ahead of anything that will line up against him. Now a 10 year old, Paint The Clouds has had an injury hit career but Warren Greatrex's inmate seems to be sound for the first time in a few years and had a perfect season last year winning all 3 of his Hunter Chases in facile fashion as he signed off the season with a bloodless victory in the Champion Hunter Chase at Stratford last May taking his record to 5 wins from 5 over regulation fences. Although he's probably not faced anything substantial in those 5 easy wins, there's no doubt in my mind that he's the best Hunter Chaser around. Back in 2011, Paint The Clouds racked up 5 straight wins (3 over hurdles, two over fences) before a handicap success off a mark of 130 at Cheltenham that October where he was dismounted after the line and Warren Greatrex has since been revealed that McCoy told him he'd win the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle after that win. Obviously he didn't say fit then but he's now proven himself to be fit but I think it says so, so much about how highly he is rated that after a 518 day absence he made his reappearance from injury in the 2013 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle at the Festival. Unfortunately he pulled muscles during that race after the ground went soft but thankfully he's back to full health now. Rated 137 after his Hunter Chase successes last year, I have a sneaking suspicion that he'll be entered in the Grand National by the Greatrex team and off that I mark if he jumped well and stayed the mammoth trip I think he'd take a boat load of beating - such is how highly I rate him. I'll be backing him every week between now and March and I genuinely believe if the ground hasn't turned soft (which is a risk) he'll be victorious if he jumps around.
I see that the novices Coneygree and Kings Palace have both been entered in the CGC. It looks like these aren’t solely speculative entries either as it is being indicated that both will have their next run outside of the novice division. The former in the Cotswold Chase and the latter in Newbury’s Denman.
Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, has stuck 2 in – Bob’s Worth and the mare Ma Filleule. Should the latter line up then she will be in receipt of a handy 7 lbs from the entire field.
On a separate point, and I wasn’t aware of this until yesterday, the field sizes for several races at the Festival have been reduced for safety reasons. Therefore, especially in the handicaps, it will be harder for horses to sneak in. Something to bear in mind.
Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, has stuck 2 in – Bob’s Worth and the mare Ma Filleule. Should the latter line up then she will be in receipt of a handy 7 lbs from the entire field.
On a separate point, and I wasn’t aware of this until yesterday, the field sizes for several races at the Festival have been reduced for safety reasons. Therefore, especially in the handicaps, it will be harder for horses to sneak in. Something to bear in mind.
I saw that piece on field size reductions too Sir Barney - only a couple though isn't it? Supreme from 24 to 22 or some such. Details here.
I must say Sporting Life's Ben Linfoot continues to impress me with his value selections, and today he has put up Silver Concorde in the Supreme at a tasty 25/1 - article here.
I must say Sporting Life's Ben Linfoot continues to impress me with his value selections, and today he has put up Silver Concorde in the Supreme at a tasty 25/1 - article here.