I've done some maths.

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ThatThereSaintsFan

ThatThereSaintsFan

Well-Known Member
Feb 24, 2011
3,510
33
48
Southampton
I've done some maths.
First I looked up the 1st, 4th and 6th placed points total all the way back to 2008/09.
Here you go:
2013/14:
1st =86
4th = 79
6th = 69
2012/13
1st = 89
4th = 72
6th = 63
2011/12
1st = 89
4th = 69
6th = 64
2010/11
1st = 80
4th = 68
6th = 58
2009/10
1st = 86
4th = 70
6th = 64
2008/09
1st = 90
4th = 72
6th = 62
Then I worked out our total points if we keep this form all season. Which is 86.

This means if we keep up this form we'd have won the league in 2010/11, and gone down to goal difference in 2013/14 and 2009/10. (Our GD is currently the best in the league). Moreover if we keep this form up then we'd have qualified (comfortably) for the Champions league in every season since 2008/09.
If we lose every game to city, chelsea and arsenal this season this would shove our total down to 68. Leaving us marginally off the champions league positions every year (although arguably qualifying in 2010/11).

However if we manage just ONE win, (or 3 draws) against those sides. We'd jump up to 71, which would see us qualify in 3 of the last 6 seasons.


Obviously it's reliant on us beating the smaller sides, but who says we won't lose to one of those and then beat a champions league contender (which is better because of the whole 6 points thing).
 
ThatThereSaintsFan said:
I've done some maths.
First I looked up the 1st, 4th and 6th placed points total all the way back to 2008/09.
Here you go:
2013/14:
1st =86
4th = 79
6th = 69
2012/13
1st = 89
4th = 72
6th = 63
2011/12
1st = 89
4th = 69
6th = 64
2010/11
1st = 80
4th = 68
6th = 58
2009/10
1st = 86
4th = 70
6th = 64
2008/09
1st = 90
4th = 72
6th = 62
Then I worked out our total points if we keep this form all season. Which is 86.

This means if we keep up this form we'd have won the league in 2010/11, and gone down to goal difference in 2013/14 and 2009/10. (Our GD is currently the best in the league). Moreover if we keep this form up then we'd have qualified (comfortably) for the Champions league in every season since 2008/09.
If we lose every game to city, chelsea and arsenal this season this would shove our total down to 68. Leaving us marginally off the champions league positions every year (although arguably qualifying in 2010/11).

However if we manage just ONE win, (or 3 draws) against those sides. We'd jump up to 71, which would see us qualify in 3 of the last 6 seasons.


Obviously it's reliant on us beating the smaller sides, but who says we won't lose to one of those and then beat a champions league contender (which is better because of the whole 6 points thing).
Click to expand...

I'm going to go up in the loft and see if I can find you my "collection" - you need to do something with your time :)
 
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
 
Boris Fenster said:
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
Click to expand...

Yep, we're just lucky. But do you know what? I'd rather be lucky than good?

:)

#secondintheleague

#gonnamilkthisbabywhilewecan
 
Boris Fenster said:
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
Click to expand...

Well we've beaten "poor teams" like QPR, West Ham and Stoke......how did Citeh do against them? Likewise, how did Man Utd get on at home against Swansea; a team we beat away. Also seem to remember Man Utd losing to Leicester, Liverpool losing to West Ham and Arsenal drawing at home to Hull. It seems that many experts think that 3 points against a top four team is worth more than 3 against a lower club! *

* BTW last time I looked West Ham were a top four team, whereas Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd were not.
 
Boris Fenster said:
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
Click to expand...

Come on you cannot take anything away from the saints fans.......the so called poor teams as you call them were not necessarily poor teams when we played them. They are simply where they are because of the results against teams like the saints!
Just like every one else we have to earn our place to be able to play in Europe, why should we not believe we can do it? We know what we have to do and believe we can do it.....or give it a bloody good try!
 
I think the difference between this year and pretty much every other year since 2008 is that the top 4 always consisted of 'big clubs' who started every game, home or away, against any of the other teams in the league as favorites.

That doesn't look like it's the case this year. I wouldn't fancy Liverpool, Man Utd or Spurs to go to West Ham, Swansea or Aston Villa and comfortably deliver 3 points easily. For that reason I really think we are in the mix, and I think that the points total for 4th might be as low as 65/66 points or so. that has got to be achievable with a good run without injuries and maybe a player or two to strengthen the squad in January. I'm getting carried away, aren't I.
 
Boris Fenster said:
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
Click to expand...

Arsenal fans get too comfy with their 'guaranteed 4th status'. I think it is you that shouldn't get too carried away. You may still get 4th but then we may well be in 3rd. Who knows?
 
Boris Fenster said:
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
Click to expand...

Actually, I think that will be the key to whoever sneaks into 3rd and 4th place--whether that is us or some other side. I do not think we are an 86 point tea and we will not maintain this pace, but it's hard to see who is very likely to pass us bar Man City.

I don't think anyone can catch Chelsea, and Man City is probably a cut above the rest. After that, there are a bunch of teams that are similar. It's kind of a crap shoot, so consistency will be the difference. We have already lost to Liverpool, but are ahead of them because they have dropped too many points to sides you'd think they should beat.

Six points off every team in the back half is 60 points.

So yeah, I think we have a shot at CL. In part because I think we are good, but just as much because this year looks wide open.
 
On "you haven't played the big clubs" math: assuming Arsenal and Man U (there are other traditional contenders, but those are the closest) get it together, achieving two points a game from now through the end of the first round of fixtures, we need just 8 points in 8 games to stay in the top four through the new year. Even if we have a slip, there's a very good chance that January will dawn with us in the top four.
 
Boris Fenster said:
like Southampton, liked them better with Shaw, but you have played a load of the poor teams and I wouldnt get carried away, Europa League maybe, maybe not.
Click to expand...

Telling fans not to get carried away is like commanding the tide not to come in. King Canute knew that, and so does anyone with sense.
 
Our achievements can be measured in what we are told we can't do.

1. You'll struggle in the Championship.
2. You'll struggle in the PL.
3. You won't make top 6.
4. Never finish in top 4.
5. No way you'll win the title.

3-5 are all this season. :) No, we won't win the title (but isn't it great that people feel that they have to say that)...but we have a realistic chance of top 4 and are odds on now for top 6.
 
fran-MLs little camera said:
Our achievements can be measured in what we are told we can't do.

1. You'll struggle in the Championship.
2. You'll struggle in the PL.
3. You won't make top 6.
4. Never finish in top 4.
5. No way you'll win the title.

3-5 are all this season. :) No, we won't win the title (but isn't it great that people feel that they have to say that)...but we have a realistic chance of top 4 and are odds on now for top 6.
Click to expand...

Even before No. 1 we had "League One is a tough league to get out of". That was true, because it took us two seasons. Three and a half years later the pundits on Sky's Saturday Night Football are agreeing we have a 50:50 chance of making the top 4 of the Premier League. Not bad.
 
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