The 2015 Champion Hurdle

Tuesday March 10th is the day to put in your diaries for the 2015 Champion Hurdle and, as always, this season’s renewal looks like being one of the highlights of the festival. With age having finally caught up with the outstanding dual Champion, Hurricane Fly, it is safe to assume that other names will dominate the build-up to one of the most eagerly-anticipated races throughout the winter. The main protagonists from the 2014 renewal will face the challenge of those younger horses who will be stepping out of novice company for the first time this season and, as ever, the question of which horses will even line up on the day is the primary focus at this very early stage.

The fledgling betting market, as of September 3rd, looks like this (Bet365 prices taken from Oddschecker):

Faugheen, The New One 5/1
Jezki , My Tent Or Yours, Vautour 6/1
Un De Sceaux 8/1
Annie Power 10/1
Hurricane Fly, Josses Hill 14/1
Tiger Roll 16/1
Calipto, Rock On Ruby 20/1
Vaniteux, Diakali, Guitar Pete 25/1
Irving 33/1
Kentucky Hyden 40/1
Clever Cookie 50/1

Others quoted by other firms at this stage include Abyssial, Analifet, Arctic Fire, Wilde Blue Yonder, Zamdy Man and Activial.

Respect demands that we start with the reigning Champion, Jezki, who somehow crept under the radar screen for the 2014 renewal and won as a relatively unfancied 9/1 shot, a cracking spare ride for Barry Geraghty. His price was probably driven by 2 factors – firstly, he had already been beaten twice by Hurricane Fly in Ireland and, secondly, he didn’t look entirely convincing up the Cheltenham hill the year before when readily beaten by Champagne Fever and My Tent Or Yours in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. After his defeats by Hurricane Fly, much was made of riding tactics, connections opting to drop him in at the back in the Irish Champion Hurdle, where he ran much too freely and had no response on the sprint for home. AP McCoy insisted he should be ridden more prominently at Cheltenham as he ideally wants two and a half miles, and this advice was heeded by Geraghty who swept to the lead off the final bend and held off the late challenge of McCoy on My Tent Or Yours. Jezki followed up by taking the Racing Post Champion Hurdle at Punchestown (beating Hurricane Fly 3.75 lengths in what was effectively a match) and he is surely the strongest of the established Irish challengers.

Second in the 2014 renewal was Nicky Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours, owned (like Jezki) by J.P. McManus. Retained jockey A.P. McCoy chose this strong-travelling, flashy individual over the more straightforward Jezki and lived to regret the decision, with My Tent Or Yours once again finding one too tough to pass up the Cheltenham hill (Champagne Fever having done him in the Supreme a year earlier). Having won the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles en route to Cheltenham, he was statistically damned in the Champion Hurdle as that elusive treble has rarely been done. Giving lumps of weight in the Scottish Champion Hurdle was a bold enterprise by connections, which ultimately proved beyond him. The key to him improving his chances in this season’s renewal will be getting him to settle better in his races, and connections will be endeavouring to achieve this, perhaps even by implementing some sort of headgear or special bit? Nicky Henderson has already mentioned having schooled him over fences but surely he has to have another crack at the Champion Hurdle? He didn’t have a trouble free prep in 2014 (a small foot injury in the weeks before the race) and if he can be taught to settle a little better he must be a major player again this term.

The only other horse I would take out of the 2014 renewal as a credible challenger this time around is The New One, who was hampered by the tragic fall of Our Conor but stormed up the hill (much like 12 months earlier in the Neptune) to take 3rd place. He then went on to take the Aintree Hurdle at the second time of asking (having cost me a packet the year before when done by Zarkandar) and is clearly a very talented animal who gets further than 2 miles so clearly benefits from a strongly run race in the Champion Hurdle. He was beaten by MTOY in a muddling Christmas Hurdle and we will never know how close he might have been without that unfortunate incident with Our Conor. On strict form he probably has a couple of pounds to find with the 2 horses that beat him in the 2014 renewal but it is entirely possible that he could progress again this season (but so could the others).

That’s probably it from last year’s renewal and, before we move on to last season’s novices, there is one more horse from the “non-novice” ranks from last season that must be mentioned – the mare Annie Power. Despite many voices calling for her to run in the Champion Hurdle last season she ended up going the World Hurdle route and ended up finishing an extremely gallant second to More Of That – her only career defeat to date. Her form with Zarkandar is the main reason for her official rating and we have seen that Paul Nicholls inmate, whilst admirable, is just short of what is required to win a Champion Hurdle. Annie Power also has the novice chasing option so we wait and see where connections go with her.

With the mention of Annie Power’s connections we come to the 2 men who are seemingly holding a large chunk of the aces in the Champion Hurdle at the current time – Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci. The aforementioned Annie Power, Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Vautour and Neptune winner Faugheen all figure prominently at the head of the betting. For good measure Mullins also has the Edward O’Connell owned Un De Sceaux, unbeaten in 9 career starts but not sent to Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown, instead twice raiding Auteuil and bringing back around €115K to Ireland. Thus starts the annual guessing game of trying to decipher which Mullins horses will go where at the festival.

Everyone will have their opinions on the Mullins novices (see separate thread here), all equally valid at this stage. For what it’s worth, I have been most impressed by Vautour in terms of a potential future Champion Hurdler – he is a very slick jumper and looks the speediest of the bunch to me. I think his Supreme Novice’s victory will turn out to be the best novice form and he showed he can get further when winning at Punchestown. Having said that, Vautour looks all over a chaser in the making and is currently favourite for the Arkle!!! Faugheen demands huge respect, especially if his jumping flaws have been ironed out by Mullins, as he has a serious engine, as indeed does Un De Sceaux. It would be very, very interesting to hear Ruby’s honest opinion on the Mullins horses but, one assumes, all cards will be held very closely to his chest.

Looking a bit further afield, Mr Henderson’s pair of Josses Hill and Vaniteux wouldn’t have you rushing out to back them based on their novice form but it can be guaranteed that the master of Seven Barrows will eke out every last drop of potential as the horses continue to mature. Given the atrocious record of 5 year-olds in the Champion Hurdle I am more than happy to discount the Triumph Hurdle formlines covering Tiger Roll, Guitar Pete and Abyssial and would be looking for something a little bit left field at this early stage of the season for a long-odds small stakes ante-post dabble. Perhaps Mr Henderson’s Tolworth winner Royal Boy might come on (although I believe he was injured after the Tolworth) or even David Pipe’s impressive Greatwood winner Dell Arca or his Aintree conqueror Lac Fontana? If nothing else, these 2 will be battle hardened.

Just 6 months till the big race so let's get the debate kicked off

 

Bet Victor (25/1) and Betfair (20/1) have introduced Nicky Henderson's Sign Of A Victory into their markets after his demolition job in the listed William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Ascot yesterday. Running off a mark of 139, the Kayf Tara gelding travelled powerfully throughout the race and was pulling Geraghty's arms out coming off the final bend. He powered up the home stright hard-held for a facile half-length success from stablemate Dawalan and, whilst the bare form is well short of what will be required come March, the manner of his victory was deeply impressive. It will be very interesting to see where he goes next but, with My Tent Or Yours ruled out for the season, I wouldn't bet against this lad lining up for the Christmas Hurdle. Certainly adds some interest to the market.

 

I realise race times can be misleading, but Sign Of A Victory clocked a time of 3m 34.80s (fast by 6.20s). Some performance when you think he was pulling double the whole way round and Geraghty never moved a muscle on him. Mind you, the novice hurdle won by Jolly's Cracked It was 0.15s quicker than standard too, so obviously the ground was riding fairly quick.

 

That's why they call me Odddog Bob