The calculations made by Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Kostas Paraschakis show that Southampton are on course to finish on 61 points. That is their expected number. At the beginning of the season we were expecting them to finish on 52 points, and this nine-point gain is bigger than any other club. In other words, Southampton are doing quite a bit better even than we expected them to on the basis of last year’s campaign and before they sold anyone.At the beginning of the season, Southampton had a 3 per cent chance of a top-four finish and a 7 per cent chance of a top-five finish. After all those sales, they have a (striking) 28 per cent chance of a Champions League slot and a 45 per cent chance of finishing in the top five.
Above lifted from Saintsweb, originally lifted from The Times
Now I don't necessarily think we will finish in top 5, but I am very pleased that we are playing so well that it is not out of the question. Now that is progress.