Timeform's John Ingles previews the German Derby from Hamburg on Sunday.
Deutsches Derby Preview: Keep Wild Chief on side this weekend
By John Ingles -- published 4th July 2014
John Ingles previews the German Derby from Hamburg on Sunday.
Last weekend’s Irish Derby won in a canter by Australia might have been lacking in both numbers and anticipation but the same certainly can’t be said for the German equivalent, the Deutsches Derby, at Hamburg on Sunday. A maximum field of twenty has been declared, featuring a hot favourite with a reputation seemingly as high in his own country as the one Australia currently enjoys in Ireland. Sea The Moon is the colt in question and he’s been ante-post favourite for this ever since his winning debut at Cologne last September.
Much of the hype about him has no doubt been fuelled by his pedigree – a Germany Derby winner’s if ever there was one. As his name suggests, he’s by the Epsom Derby winner, Sea The Stars, and out of a mare who’s a sister to two German Derby winners already. Sea The Moon has kept his unbeaten record with two more wins this year in pattern races, including the Group 2 Union-Rennen at Cologne which is the main German Derby trial.
All three of his wins to date have come under Andreas Helfenbein but he’s been jocked off in favour of Christophe Soumillon, a move which seems to have caused some controversy when rumours of the switch were confirmed earlier this week. If all goes to plan on Sunday, the Arc is already being talked of as the target for Sea The Moon later in the year. But while he could easily come through his biggest test yet with his unbeaten record still intact, it looks worth taking him on at cramped odds in this big field, especially as, along with showing plenty of talent, he’s looked anything but a straightforward ride in his two races this year.
Sea The Moon has made the running in all his races to date, but has shown clear signs of inexperience along with a tendency to race freely. At Frankfurt he missed the break and didn’t handle the bends very well and, more worryingly, at Cologne last time he hung left across virtually the whole width of the home straight. That’s something he cannot afford to do on Sunday when Soumillon will also almost certainly have the task of riding him with a bit more restraint from his wide draw.
As shown by our Timeform ratings below, Sea The Moon is no stand-out on form either. That’s also the opinion of the German handicappers whose ratings dictate the race-card order for the Derby field. Sea The Moon is only number 2 on the card behind the German 2000 Guineas winner Lucky Lion who might have the best piece of form but is far from certain on pedigree to stay the extra half-mile. Although by another Epsom Derby winner, High Chaparral, the dam’s side of his pedigree is all speed.
Further interest to the race has been added by the supplementing of Epsom Derby flops Geoffrey Chaucer and Pinzolo who represent Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby respectively. Both colts seem to have been underestimated somewhat by the German handicappers as only 5 and 9 in the list of runners. Neither threatened to take a hand at Epsom before being eased once beaten, but Geoffrey Chaucer, who will be reunited with his Derby jockey Ryan Moore, had excuses and looks worth another chance to confirm earlier promise.
Pinzolo attempts to give Godolphin a second win in the German Derby after Buzzword became the only winner of the race trained outside Germany so far when successful four years ago. Of those bidding to keep the race at home, Magic Artist ran out a convincing winner of another important trial, the Bavarian Classic at Munich, though he’s another with a query over his stamina. On the other hand, there are no such doubts over Wild Chief who is bred to relish the step up to a mile and a half and has leading claims on his fourth place in last month’s Prix du Jockey Club. That was an excellent run on just his third outing to be beaten less than four lengths behind The Grey Gatsby in the French Derby, particularly as he had to switch wide before launching his challenge, and he can progress again over this longer trip to upset the favourite, while his King George entry suggests he’s held in some regard himself.
Recommendation:
Back Wild Chief in the Deutsches Derby
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:
129 Lucky Lion
127p Wild Chief
127 Geoffrey Chaucer
125p Sea The Moon
125 Pinzolo
124 Magic Artist
Deutsches Derby Preview: Keep Wild Chief on side this weekend
By John Ingles -- published 4th July 2014
John Ingles previews the German Derby from Hamburg on Sunday.
Last weekend’s Irish Derby won in a canter by Australia might have been lacking in both numbers and anticipation but the same certainly can’t be said for the German equivalent, the Deutsches Derby, at Hamburg on Sunday. A maximum field of twenty has been declared, featuring a hot favourite with a reputation seemingly as high in his own country as the one Australia currently enjoys in Ireland. Sea The Moon is the colt in question and he’s been ante-post favourite for this ever since his winning debut at Cologne last September.
Much of the hype about him has no doubt been fuelled by his pedigree – a Germany Derby winner’s if ever there was one. As his name suggests, he’s by the Epsom Derby winner, Sea The Stars, and out of a mare who’s a sister to two German Derby winners already. Sea The Moon has kept his unbeaten record with two more wins this year in pattern races, including the Group 2 Union-Rennen at Cologne which is the main German Derby trial.
All three of his wins to date have come under Andreas Helfenbein but he’s been jocked off in favour of Christophe Soumillon, a move which seems to have caused some controversy when rumours of the switch were confirmed earlier this week. If all goes to plan on Sunday, the Arc is already being talked of as the target for Sea The Moon later in the year. But while he could easily come through his biggest test yet with his unbeaten record still intact, it looks worth taking him on at cramped odds in this big field, especially as, along with showing plenty of talent, he’s looked anything but a straightforward ride in his two races this year.
Sea The Moon has made the running in all his races to date, but has shown clear signs of inexperience along with a tendency to race freely. At Frankfurt he missed the break and didn’t handle the bends very well and, more worryingly, at Cologne last time he hung left across virtually the whole width of the home straight. That’s something he cannot afford to do on Sunday when Soumillon will also almost certainly have the task of riding him with a bit more restraint from his wide draw.
As shown by our Timeform ratings below, Sea The Moon is no stand-out on form either. That’s also the opinion of the German handicappers whose ratings dictate the race-card order for the Derby field. Sea The Moon is only number 2 on the card behind the German 2000 Guineas winner Lucky Lion who might have the best piece of form but is far from certain on pedigree to stay the extra half-mile. Although by another Epsom Derby winner, High Chaparral, the dam’s side of his pedigree is all speed.
Further interest to the race has been added by the supplementing of Epsom Derby flops Geoffrey Chaucer and Pinzolo who represent Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby respectively. Both colts seem to have been underestimated somewhat by the German handicappers as only 5 and 9 in the list of runners. Neither threatened to take a hand at Epsom before being eased once beaten, but Geoffrey Chaucer, who will be reunited with his Derby jockey Ryan Moore, had excuses and looks worth another chance to confirm earlier promise.
Pinzolo attempts to give Godolphin a second win in the German Derby after Buzzword became the only winner of the race trained outside Germany so far when successful four years ago. Of those bidding to keep the race at home, Magic Artist ran out a convincing winner of another important trial, the Bavarian Classic at Munich, though he’s another with a query over his stamina. On the other hand, there are no such doubts over Wild Chief who is bred to relish the step up to a mile and a half and has leading claims on his fourth place in last month’s Prix du Jockey Club. That was an excellent run on just his third outing to be beaten less than four lengths behind The Grey Gatsby in the French Derby, particularly as he had to switch wide before launching his challenge, and he can progress again over this longer trip to upset the favourite, while his King George entry suggests he’s held in some regard himself.
Recommendation:
Back Wild Chief in the Deutsches Derby
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:
129 Lucky Lion
127p Wild Chief
127 Geoffrey Chaucer
125p Sea The Moon
125 Pinzolo
124 Magic Artist
