Come on Italy!!!
For the hard of maths, here's my working...
A draw would put Italy and Costa Rica on 4 points, meaning we are out of the cup, as we can only score 3 points maximum at this stage.
A win for Costa Rica puts them through, either as runners-up or a group winners. As Italy face Uruguay in the last match, then at least one of those teams will score some points, meaning that England can't go through.
So our only chance is for Italy to win tonight. Therefore we need to cheer for Italy tonight and the BBC will get a far larger audience then they'd normally get for this game.
Let's say Italy win 1-0, then what? Italy will have six points almost guaranteeing their qualification. Costa Rica's goal difference will be +1 with 3 goals for and 2 against. (I'm working on a worst case scenario that still ensures our hopes of escaping the group).
This takes us to the final game:
In this scenario, we need Italy to beat Uruguay, but Italy themselves would only need a draw to guarantee qualification. However, because I'm being super-optimistic, I'm going to presume that even if Italy park the bus, they'll score on the break and defend their lead. Seeing is Italy, unlike England, actually have some defenders rather than a donkey sanctuary, this is feasible. This outcome would leave Uruguay would on 3 points, having scored 3 goals and conceded 5, giving them a final goal difference of -2.
So, because the fates are smiling on us and everything has gone our way, we can cast our eyes back to England. We need a win against Costa Rica, but is a win good enough? A win gives us 3 points, but that only moves us level with the other teams and so we need to factor goal difference and goals scored. We current have a goal difference of -2 - the same as Uruguay should all other results go our way. We've scored 2 and conceded 4. If we win 1-0, we overtake Uruguay with a goal difference of -1. This won't be good enough as it doesn't damage Costa Rica's goal difference - they'd drop to +0, we'd be on -1 and we'd still go out. Consequence, we'd need to win at least 2-0.
Of course, if Italy romp home in their games against Costa Rica and Uruguay, it would making the goal difference irrelevant. We'd still need to win though! Roy needs to utter his soon-to-be-famous battle-cry "fooled you suckers" and bring on the big guns, namely Lambert, Lallana and, as I'm a Saints fan through and through, Luke Shaw.