I realise end of season matches are notoriously unpredictable, but I honestly believe that if we can beat W. Brom on Saturday, then we will have done enough to stay up. I´ve only looked at the run-ins for sides beneath us at the moment, and with the best will in the world I can only see C. Palace and possibly W. Brom reaching 35 points or more. In the last game of the season, where it seems likely that points are possible I´ve given a chance for 1 or 3. C. Palace (currently 31 pts) - Cardiff (a) 1 pt, A. Villa (h) 1 pt, Everton (a) 0 pts, W. Ham (a) 1 pt Man C (h) 0 pts, Liverpool (h) 0 pts, Fulham (a) 1/3 pts - total 35/37 pts W. Brom (currently 29 pts) - City (a) 0 pts, Spurs (h) 1 pt, Man C (a) 0 pts, W. Ham (h) 3 pts, Arsenal (a) 0 pts, Sunderland (a) 1 pt, Stoke (h) 1/3 pts - total 35/37 pts Cardiff (currently 26 pts) - C. Palace (h) 1 pt, Saints (a) 0 pts, Stoke (h) 3 pts, Sunderland (a) 1 pt, Newcastle (a) 1 pt, Chelsea (h) 0 pts - total 32 pts Sunderland (currently 25 pts) - Spurs (a) 1 pt, Everton (h) 0 pts, Man C (a) 0 pts, Chelsea (a) 0 pts, Cardiff (h) 1 pt, Man U (a) 0 pts, W. Brom (h) 1 pt, Swansea (h) 1/3 pts - total 29/31 pts Fulham (currently 24 pts) - A. Villa (a) 1 pt, City (h) 1 pt, Spurs (a) 0 pts, Hull (h) 3 pts, Stoke (a) 0 pts, C. Palace (h) 1/3 pts - total 30/32 pts I´ve given us a chance to take 1 pt from Fulham, but even if we should lose that, they would by my calculations, still only reach max 34 pts. This is naturally also assuming that we will pick up no points at all from our last 4 matches, which many seem to think is a foregone conclusion, I´m not so sure myself.
I've had a similar look at these run-ins and come to similar outcomes, RBF. Even given the odd surprise, like Palace beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, the bottom 3 teams have a lot to do. I watched the Sunderland vs. West Ham match and saw nothing that made me think that they will produce many surprises. Cardiff might, but they are 6 points behind with 6 games to play. Fulham look lost already. Thus I agree, beat West Brom and a point against Fulham will be enough. They're all down there for a reason.
I watched the Sunderland game too Rick, and until they brought on Johnson and Gardener, they looked very anaemic, especially considering it was a game they just had to win, with the 4 they´ve got coming up next. I know we can´t exactly blow our own trumpet, but at least we´ve been fairly competitive at home, especially when it´s mattered.
Hi RBF bor, better to await the result of our game with WBA before hazarding a guess on results. This coming game with the Baggies decides our fate, lose of even draw then we have a real fight on our hands. It is reported that the players are to reimburse the fans for the Swansea match. Far better for the players to dig deep into their professional expertise rather than their pockets and produce two good results: a win against WBA and at least a draw at the Cottage. By the way like the look of your avatar, how old is he now ?
Afternoon NORKIE - yes, I am perhaps erroneously assuming that we will win on Saturday, anything less and we really are making life difficult for ourselves, but another Sunderland performance, clappers and all, should do it. Thought you might appreciate my friend Rex, he´s just turned 2, in fact when this photo was taken he was only 1 and a bit, so he looks even more handsome now.
Nice piece of work RBF but as you know, once we get into the last month of the campaign it's always silly season with silly results. Having said that, I agree that IF we beat WBA on Saturday only a couple of more points perhaps would see us safe.
In my defence KIO, I did make those points quite clearly, so we agree in every respect, although I actually think that 35 will be enough - but for God´s sake don´t tell the players I said so.
Vaguely interestingly, I've just seen the following stats from the combined sources of WhoScored and Squawka (apologies in advance to the anti-stats brigade). Here's our rating out of all 20 clubs for the following statistics (naturally, EPL games only. p/g=per game): Shots p/g:....................................13th Shots on target p/g:.......................12th 'Chances' created p/g:....................12th Average Possession:.......................14th % successful passes:......................14th Shots conceded p/g:......................16th 'Defensive errors' p/g:.....................16th 'Defensive errors' leading to goal p/g:.19th Aerial Duels won p/g:......................13th Total goals scored from set pieces:....20th I know there's more to it than these, but in some ways (to me) they belie our position in the overall table. They do highlight to an extent how our error-prone performances have really cost us this season (obviously that is something we are already well aware of though).
I agree with your conclusions RBF, but the trouble is with the method. With the best will in the world, it is almost impossible to accurately predict the next six/seven matches of each team. If it was you would be a rich man via accumulators! Rather than taking each match and allocating it a point, it would be better to assess the six matches as a whole and work out what they are likely to get over the course of those matches. Even that is highly unlikely, but I think a better match. E.g.: 1. Palace are playing Cardiff (a), Villa (h), Everton (a), West Ham (a), Man City (h), Liverpool (h), Fulham (a) I would bracket Cardiff, West Ham and Fulham away, along with Villa at home as matches of similar difficulty. I think from this lot, they are probably going to get a point, possibly even two. They might snatch an away win, but I think that's unlikely, more likely is that they'll get the home win against Villa. So I'd guess they'll make 4-5 points from this. Call it 4.5 points. I would bracket Everton, Man City and Liverpool matches as of roughly similar difficulty too (given that Everton are away). While I accept the match against Chelsea shows that they can get a result against the big boys at home, I think it's unlikely to be repeated. They may well get a draw against one of the teams, though (and thus have a big effect on the title race/top four), but that's particularly likely. So I'm going to say 0-1 points from these matches. Call it 0.5. So this gives them five points or a range of 4-6 points. Funnily enough, this produces exactly the same conclusion as yours above, which makes it seem pointless. But I think is a bit more reliable because it accounts for the swings and roundabouts of fortune... More importantly, it has a bigger impact on more erratic teams: 2. West Brom are playing: Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal - likely outcome is 0-1 points (probably at home to Tottenham, but they've quite a good record for draws on the road) West Ham, Stoke - likely outcome is anywhere in the region of 1-6 points, though probably best narrowed to 3-4 points as balance against other results (both teams are tough lately, even on the road) Norwich, Sunderland - likely outcome is 0-2 points (both on the road against fellow battlers, but West Brom should be able to pull a draw out of the bag as they have done several times this season) So this gives an average of 5 points, and a range of potentially 3-7 points. So they are likely to finish on average around 34 points (below your estimate) and the only way they would get as high as the top of your estimate (37 points) is if they beat Norwich/Sunderland on the road, plus very good results at home and nicking a draw against the big boys. Tough call for a team with just two wins in four months... There's not time to do the rest, but I think you'll find it gets more positive for us, so long as we win at West Brom. What we really need is for all these "six-pointers" to end in draws. I'm fairly sure our chances of going down are close to zero if that happens.
This emphasise to me that we have lost one of the key potencies of last season (set pieces). A boring and unpopular method of getting results, but at least effective. The defensive errors I think is probably skewed by the various away match disasters. I don't think we would be in much of a different position in the table if we'd lost 2-0 at Man City and Liverpool, but this chart would look a lot healthier in the defensive column.
If that's the case (and you may well be right, Rob) the ratings would belie our league position even further! Therefore, do you think we have been generally 'unlucky' (I hate that word) this season?
If it wasn't for those, the ratings would put us between 12th and 16th in the table. Which is precisely where we've been all season and where I think we'll finish, so I don't think it would belie our league position? I think we have been unlucky, yes, with injuries. Not quantity - all teams get a quantity of injuries and have to cope with them - it's more been with the focus of the injuries in certain positions and the timing of them. Our team has never quite been able to settle in the way Southampton's did in the first three months. Otherwise we are about average compared to our peers in terms of luck.
Hi RBF, I did a similar thing on the Relegation Thread recently and was accused by Cruyff of 'guesswork' - unreal! I don't think you are far off at all and a win on Saturday will just about do it. The only bad result lately was the Chelski no-show at Palace and the West brom - Cardiff draw was perfect, but at this time of year you always get the odd fluke. I do wonder if Sunderland might get something at WHL on Monday as Spurs are all over the place, particularly if Sherwood has just lamped them.
Evening gents - Rob and JK interesting takes on the same theme, but it all really boils down to a win being imperative this Saturday, if we can get it, then I think we can all begin to relax a little. and THURNBY - I gave Sunderland the possibility of a point on Monday for that very same reason, just hoping it won´t be three, but they were very poor against W. Ham.
I don't understand how we're so much less effective from set pieces this season, it's the same player putting the ball in, and the people trying to get on the end of it haven't changed that much either!
After grinding your stats i now consider the next game a 12 pointer, i`m not sure whether Thai can handle the pressure but i`m rooting for him.
Only real difference I can think is that we are probably getting a lot less free kicks now we don't have Holty.
That's a good point, would be interesting to see if the number of free kicks we're getting in the oppositions half has dropped significantly
