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beeforsalmon

beeforsalmon

Well-Known Member
May 8, 2011
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N. Ireland
begin you're ante-post betting for next's years Cheltenham Festival!

This year it was my ante-post bets saved my festival with Vautour (one of my festival NAPs), Faugheen and most fortuitously today, Lord Windermere, who spared my festival. Pretty certain looking at the Albert Bartlett outcome Briar Hill would have been on the list too had David Casey not managed to deck the thing!

So, I'll lay my cards on the table. I've chucked a few shillings out of my winnings this evening onto one for Cheltenham 2015. The man who despises ante-post betting presents to you this.

Arkle 2015. VAUTOUR 6/1.
I'll nibble on this beast along the way if I have a good Aintree, Punchestown or whenever. Never done this before and am fully aware it may be completely crocked long before the festival. But I'll only dabble if I've won a few quid.

No doubt this is complete madness but hey ho. After all I said that many, many times about Lord Windermere too, especially for the first 95% of today's Gold Cup :)
 
I'm converted to Vautour so would have him in whatever race he's in. Same applies to Faugheen and More Of That.

I like Annie Power so I would have to include her.

A riskier one might be O'Faolains Boy.

A safe bet could be to lay anything that ran in today's Gold Cup to win next year's; much as I love the very gallant The Giant Bolster

Problem is, the going could scupper all AP bets based on form on this week's going.
 
I have finally learned after this year about the perils of ante-post betting.

Vautour was the most impressive performance of the week for me, so I definitely fancy it to repeat next year but 6/1 is way too short - I'd want 2/1 about him turning up in the Arkle next year at this point (between injuries and race choices) so it's not for me.

I'd rather be backing Sire De Grugy (4/1) or The New One (6/1) - at least you're sure what race they'll head for! Won't be backing either for at least 6 months though, and hopefully I'll have the restraint to last 11 months.
 
SwanHills said:
Annie Power, whatever she runs in...............
Click to expand...
Probably. If it's testing ground I assume she'll go for the Champion, otherwise the mares' or World depending on whether More of That goes for the World. I wouldn't put real money on anything AP at this stage; this would be my imaginary money.
 
Ron, my money's getting pretty imaginary too, so says the missus..................<laugh>
 
She looks a bit lacking in strength to go chasing. She didn't look that brilliant on Thursday.
 
Well you've seen her in the flesh Nass so I'll take your word for it.

I remember a horse called Royal Marshall. Came into the parade ring, head on the ground and looking like a rescue case and went and won. Can't remember the race but I think it was a good class. Apparently when he looked like that he was ready to go. Things like that make me think I know SFA about horses <laugh>
 
I would only be having two ante-post bets at this stage - The New One in the champion hurdle and Bob's Worth in next years gold cup. TNO as i think he was the best horse in the race this year and i cant see any new challengers really. Bob's Worth because i think they will campaign him slightly differently, i still think him and Silviniaco Conti were the best horses in the race yesterday and im hopeful the conditions will be slightly more suited to Bob's Worth than this year. Add to that the price of 10/1 currently on offer and i think it looks a nice bet
 
The fact The New One seemed outpaced 2 out in the Champion would worry me, as unlucky as he may originally have seemed. He definitely hit a flat spot. Should be incredibly hard to beat at Aintree over two and half, he's tailor made for that trip to my eye.
 
Long term plan for AP has always been chasing. Be another
Interesting juggling job for Mullins next year. With Un Atout
Pont Alexandra potentially returning as well. Expect another
Year of speculation.
 
Brough Tiger said:
I would only be having two ante-post bets at this stage - The New One in the champion hurdle and Bob's Worth in next years gold cup. TNO as i think he was the best horse in the race this year and i cant see any new challengers really. Bob's Worth because i think they will campaign him slightly differently, i still think him and Silviniaco Conti were the best horses in the race yesterday and im hopeful the conditions will be slightly more suited to Bob's Worth than this year. Add to that the price of 10/1 currently on offer and i think it looks a nice bet
Click to expand...

Bobs Worth campaigned differently?...elaborate..talk me through your plan..Conditions more suited?...how?

SC and BW are average,both returned post race normal,both beaten fair and square and both the best horses in the race?

Lemmings and their cash.....

I think the best bet next year,as every year is Tom Scud to ride at least 6 finishes from the top of the hill...
 
beeforsalmon said:
The fact The New One seemed outpaced 2 out in the Champion would worry me, as unlucky as he may originally have seemed. He definitely hit a flat spot. Should be incredibly hard to beat at Aintree over two and half, he's tailor made for that trip to my eye.
Click to expand...

Spot on Beefy..I backed him and accept he was beaten regardless of the OC fall.He was right on the heels of the leaders at the top of the hill but got outpaced before staying on when the race was over.

Like his followers,he always has an excuse.
 
Dexter said:
Bobs Worth campaigned differently?...elaborate..talk me through your plan..Conditions more suited?...how?

SC and BW are average,both returned post race normal,both beaten fair and square and both the best horses in the race?

Lemmings and their cash.....

I think the best bet next year,as every year is Tom Scud to ride at least 6 finishes from the top of the hill...
Click to expand...

<laugh>

I'll have some of that whatever the price.
 
Dexter said:
Spot on Beefy..I backed him and accept he was beaten regardless of the OC fall.He was right on the heels of the leaders at the top of the hill but got outpaced before staying on when the race was over.

Like his followers,he always has an excuse.
Click to expand...

Four defeats in the last 16 months Dex, same as HF in his entire jumping career. Nuff said <doh>
 
Cmon lads, dress it up whatever way you want, the horse won the Neptune last year, of course he doesnt have the natural speed of Jezki or My Tent who is one of the fastest jump horses ive ever seen.

He jumped that hurdle level with Jezki and just in front on My Tent, he was about 4-5 lengths behind on the other side having ran through a falling horse losing all momentum in a race where you cant give an inch. He was beaten 2 3/4 at the line finishing best.

He was an absolute jailcase with a clean trip and its a bit harsh to knock the horse for what happened. Fair play if you want to knock him last time with the mistake at the last but not this time.

He has more stamina and more power off the bridle than the 2 who finished in front of him, yet he has enough speed to run with them for a long way.

Not good enough <doh>

On current ability and all things considered, he is the best horse in the race, My Tent is the fastest but he doesnt have the full package.
 
Dexter said:
Brough Tiger said:
I would only be having two ante-post bets at this stage - The New One in the champion hurdle and Bob's Worth in next years gold cup. TNO as i think he was the best horse in the race this year and i cant see any new challengers really. Bob's Worth because i think they will campaign him slightly differently, i still think him and Silviniaco Conti were the best horses in the race yesterday and im hopeful the conditions will be slightly more suited to Bob's Worth than this year. Add to that the price of 10/1 currently on offer and i think it looks a nice bet
Click to expand...

Bobs Worth campaigned differently?...elaborate..talk me through your plan..Conditions more suited?...how?

SC and BW are average,both returned post race normal,both beaten fair and square and both the best horses in the race?

Lemmings and their cash.....

I think the best bet next year,as every year is Tom Scud to ride at least 6 finishes from the top of the hill...
Click to expand...

First of all they won't run him at Kempton where he was never going to win then they probably won't take him over to Ireland. Geraghty has come out and said he got outpaced and he is clearly a better horse with a bit of cut in the ground.

Bobs Worth and Conti may be 'average' but they are still better horses than On His Own. You don't win races at the festival for 3 successive years when you are 'average'. You don't win a King George when you are 'average'. Kauto Star couldn't win back to back gold cups, does that make him average too?

With regards to The New One, Boris is spot on. He was clearly the best horse in that race and everyone knows it. The fall of OC cost him at least 4 lengths and he was beaten by less than that
 
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