So how good are we?

  • Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
  • Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!
littleDinosaurLuke said:
Analysis of the table shows a number of things:

1. City, Chelsea & Liverpool owe their positions to exceptionally good home form. None have been consistent away. Each have away records significantly worse than Arsenal and Spurs (and even Utd). Utd showed a few years ago that you can win the league by home form alone, but can this form continue? Chelsea still have to play Utd, Everton, Arsenal, Spurs & Newcastle at home; City have only Chelsea of the top 8 - but that means tougher away games, of course.

2. Liverpool rely very heavily on Suarez. Liverpool's main Achilles heel in the past few seasons has been defending away from home. The list of teams which have scored 2 or 3 goals against them is ever increasing. This season they have conceded 20 goals away in 11 games (from which they have taken 15 points) - so no improvement; the trend continues. Yesterday highlighted how an exceptional player can mask shortcomings. If he's absent for any period again, they are in trouble.

3. Everton may be tough to beat (2 losses & 19 goals conceded only) but they haven't beaten a team above them - except Chelsea 1-0 back in September. In ten of their 21 games, they've scored 1 or 0 goals (4 nil-nils). They have yet to play Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Soton (A) and City, Arsenal, Utd (H). Top 4? Doubtful.

4. Arsenal's fixture list looks a lot kinder in the first half of the season. Their only two trips to top 7 sides so far resulted in defeat (6 at City don't forget!). So they have the other five still to play away (and Stoke & Soton) including a run of fixtures from 15th Mar (4 days after they play in Munich) to 5th April of Spurs (A), Chelsea (A), City (H) and Everton (A). Make or break time.

Not over yet. No three teams pulling clear from what can see quite yet either.
Click to expand...

LDL wtf? such bile. Suarez was out for 10 games and we did more than fine. We are in the ****ter if BOTH Suarez and Sturridge are injured, but then aren't most teams if both their strikers are injured.? Our achilles heel is our w**k defending, but bound to happen when we play such a high line and are more attack orientated now unlike the Rafa days based on a more solid structure
 
PowerSpurs said:
There is no current chairman in the PL who has appointed a current manager who has lasted beyond two seasons!
Click to expand...

With your love of stats, are you sure you're not a closet gooner? :emoticon-0100-smile That may well be so, but I doubt there's many who have picked more expensive duds than Levy!...
 
NowsufferinginSpain said:
With your love of stats, are you sure you're not a closet gooner? :emoticon-0100-smile That may well be so, but I doubt there's many who have picked more expensive duds than Levy!...
Click to expand...

The main difference is that I try to use stats only when the sample size is large enough to mean that they contain information!

The problem with every clubs policy on managers is that most of them get too little time to have any chance of success and the ones that do usually leave a crock of **** for their successor as they retire just before the wheels fall off.
 
It's interesting how the consensus accepts

that the top three are determined

that the fourth will come from one of the next four.

The numbers only display a slight hint that will be the case. If this were a random chance operation, the chances of the winner coming from the next four instead of the top three would be 25% or more, I think. The chances of one of the top three dropping out would be at least 50% (I guesstimate).

The fact that I go along with the consensus is because I believe teams live up to and down to expectations. But if my team were one of the next four (and they are), I'd consider hiring a sports psychologist or, better, a shaman, to try to convince them they belong in the top three.
 
"It's interesting how the consensus accepts

that the top three are determined

that the fourth will come from one of the next four.

The numbers only display a slight hint that will be the case."

The PL stats tell us, for a given top 3 on Jan 1, the likelihood of the :

1. winner coming from the top 3
2. top 3 all being in the top 4 come the end

The likelihoods of either/both of the above occurring are high.

The stats suggest the team who is in 4th place then, is at much greater
risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is.
 
Sir_Red said:
LDL wtf? such bile. Suarez was out for 10 games and we did more than fine. We are in the ****ter if BOTH Suarez and Sturridge are injured, but then aren't most teams if both their strikers are injured.? Our achilles heel is our w**k defending, but bound to happen when we play such a high line and are more attack orientated now unlike the Rafa days based on a more solid structure
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be so sure yet.

You've played a top half side at home only twice this season - W1 L1 (Utd/Soton) - both without Suarez, neither inspiring. But all the big boys to play at Anfield is a big test.

Away, 5-0 v Spurs skews the stats :tongue: a bit - 20 goals conceded in the other 10 games with a 1-0 at Villa the only other clean sheet. Only Fulham and Norwich concede at this rate away. If Suarez isn't banging in goals at the rate he is, I can't see you winning away from home anywhere.
 
No doubt that Suarez has helped Liverpool to where they are but that's the luxury of having a player of that calibre. We had it with Bale, Utd with van Persie and Rooney, Chelsea with Hazard and Mata (when he plays!) and City with... Well everyone! <laugh>
 
PowerSpurs said:
The main difference is that I try to use stats only when the sample size is large enough to mean that they contain information!

The problem with every clubs policy on managers is that most of them get too little time to have any chance of success and the ones that do usually leave a crock of **** for their successor as they retire just before the wheels fall off.
Click to expand...

Anybody in particular in mind?....:)
 
The RDBD said:
"It's interesting how the consensus accepts

that the top three are determined

that the fourth will come from one of the next four.

The numbers only display a slight hint that will be the case."

The PL stats tell us, for a given top 3 on Jan 1, the likelihood of the :

1. winner coming from the top 3
2. top 3 all being in the top 4 come the end

The likelihoods of either/both of the above occurring are high.

The stats suggest the team who is in 4th place then, is at much greater
risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is.
Click to expand...

Do you mean the history stats, or the probability stats?

In any case, wouldn't it be truer to suggest "the team who is in 4th place is at much greater
risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is, unless Spurs are third."
 
"In any case, wouldn't it be truer to suggest "the team who is in 4th place is at much greater
risk of not being in the top 4 come the end, than 3rd place is, unless Spurs are third."

Yes, Spurs will always find a way of going against the prevailing statistical likelihoods. :(
 
redwhiteandermblue said:
As of right now we're in fifth, behind Liverpool on GD. So however good we are, we've been better since this thread started. Maybe we should keep it going...
Click to expand...

Too right, the mousers have Everton, West Brom and l'Arse coming up. Even if we get done by Citeh, we stand a chance of being above them half way through February.
 
deedub93 said:
Too right, the mousers have Everton, West Brom and l'Arse coming up. Even if we get done by Citeh, we stand a chance of being above them half way through February.
Click to expand...

Can't remember if I said it here or elsewhere but I wouldn't be surprised if we get into the top 4 again until April/May time. I don't expect us to be in the top 4 for any length of time until then at least. If you look at our last 6 fixtures compared to those around us it gives us a great chance to go on a run in the final sprint finish.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back