Monday AW racing comes from Wolverhampton and Southwell. The only jumps meeting (Bangor) has been cancelled due to 35mm of rain overnight which has made all three tracks waterlogged.
Southwell 16.10 Ghostwing
I thought I had found a 10/1 plot (forecast odds) only to find it is quoted at best priced 5/2 clear favourite
. This horse loves Southwell and broke the 5 fur course record there 2 years ago under hands and heels ride. Carried 9.7 that day and tomorrow carries 9.4 with a 3lb claimer. Has been running over different courses and distances and seemingly not being tried too hard in some. Now returned to Southwell over ideal distance. Carries the Timeform squiggle, which is of some concern. However, if he can reproduce that performance back on his favoured surface he would come into this race on an adjusted Timeform rating of 97+ (about 20lb clear top). The (possibly) encouraging fact is that after almost 3 months off the track, running first time for new stable, he ran well at Lingfield 10 days ago with race report reading:
"Dwelt, held up in rear, not clear run entering final 2f, effort on inner when hampered 1f out, stayed on but no threat to leaders".
A bit of a risk being (allegedly) temperamental but I can't help thinking he has been lined up for this by his new stable, with just about everything in his favour. Disappointed with the price but maybe that's an indication that the money is down early.
Southwell 16.10 Ghostwing
I thought I had found a 10/1 plot (forecast odds) only to find it is quoted at best priced 5/2 clear favourite
. This horse loves Southwell and broke the 5 fur course record there 2 years ago under hands and heels ride. Carried 9.7 that day and tomorrow carries 9.4 with a 3lb claimer. Has been running over different courses and distances and seemingly not being tried too hard in some. Now returned to Southwell over ideal distance. Carries the Timeform squiggle, which is of some concern. However, if he can reproduce that performance back on his favoured surface he would come into this race on an adjusted Timeform rating of 97+ (about 20lb clear top). The (possibly) encouraging fact is that after almost 3 months off the track, running first time for new stable, he ran well at Lingfield 10 days ago with race report reading:"Dwelt, held up in rear, not clear run entering final 2f, effort on inner when hampered 1f out, stayed on but no threat to leaders".
A bit of a risk being (allegedly) temperamental but I can't help thinking he has been lined up for this by his new stable, with just about everything in his favour. Disappointed with the price but maybe that's an indication that the money is down early.
