Daily Thread Thursday 9th January

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
Hopefully back with a winner in the North Yorkshire Grand National. Last years winner CHAC DU CADRAN 7-1 hosed up in this last year off 115. He paid the price with a hike in the ratings but now the handicapper gives him a big chance again off 118. I expect him to bowl along in front and one by one they will drop away leaving him to saunter home cosily again. Conditions perfect, no excuses!
 
Nice to see you back Stick, hope you do return with a winner. I will sponge yours and add the following with it:
12.50 South SHAWKANTANGO
13.50 South THORPE BAY
13.35 Catt SUPRISE VENDOR
Depending how these 4 get on I may have a few quid on GROOVEJET to step on and complete the hat trick in the last at Southwell.
 
nice call Stick-- but i reckon the Smith outfit will have a go with Green Wizard-- may well try a combo t/cast with merlins wish , chac, and the wizard....
 
stick said:
Hopefully back with a winner in the North Yorkshire Grand National. Last years winner CHAC DU CADRAN 7-1 hosed up in this last year off 115. He paid the price with a hike in the ratings but now the handicapper gives him a big chance again off 118. I expect him to bowl along in front and one by one they will drop away leaving him to saunter home cosily again. Conditions perfect, no excuses!
Click to expand...

Chris Bealby, trainer: "We've had a quiet time of late in the yard with a muscle enzyme-type virus, but hopefully that's all behind us now. Chac Du Cadran wasn't himself at Haydock last time, but he seems in as good form now as he was going into the race last year. Everything has gone as planned, and the bonus is he has slipped down to a mark only 3lb higher than last year."
 
He did the right thing NASS and let them have a month off but if you read his blog you can tell they are confident of a very big run, they don't always take gallops form to the racecourse so it's fingers crossed!
 
Can't see any value hedging bets tomorrow and don't fancy anything else. But, just to be sociable, I'm going for the minimum ew on El Massivo in the 14.05 Catterick. On *breeding alone this looks the class horse in the race (despite his uninspiring flat form) and Dougie Costello rides. Could have slipped in here on 10.7. Haven't seen any prices but assume he will be a decent price on his hurdling début.

* Sire Authorized. Dam is by Unfuwain, who was by Northern Dancer out of Height Of Fashion (by Bustino), out of a mare by the American Champion 2yo Chief's Crown; that mare being out of a Tom Rolfe mare. And Tom Rolfe was by the one and only Ribot.

A pity that something with that pedigree has to be gelded. Hopefully he will earn his keep over timber.
 
Welcome back Stickler <ok>

Re: Chac Du Cadran - I see the reasoning, but that P last time out is a bit of a worry. I don't think that Merlins Wish can defy the weight and class rise, especially just 14 days after his last marathon. Looking at Welworth, I note that last time out he was 1/2 length behind Across The Bay, in receipt of 16lb, and curiously in Jan 2009 in his 3rd ever race he was 102 lengths behind the same horse at levels in a 2m hurdle race! I'm not convinced about Green Wizard's ability to get this trip - a full half mile more than anything tried before. Sun Cloud is almost a stone worse off with Chac based on their October running, where both failed to finish, and I don't feel that Diamond Harry will ever win again - for all his fourth place lto, form from cross country races is rarely upheld in handicaps.

So where does the dart land? In a race with doubts about so many, I have to concur with Stick, turn a blind eye to that "P" and go with Chac Du Cadran - ew of course ;)

A goodish card at Meydan tomorrow, and I'll be on My Propeller if I can get the tissue price of 11-1

That's all folks!
 
I wouldn't touch that Northern National with a barge pole. I've had a look at the race and couldn't help noticing that Merlin's Wish is sired by Terimon, the horse that holds the record for the highest priced Epsom Derby placing (2nd at 500/1 to Nashwan in 1989) and was named European Champion Older Horse at the inaugural Cartier Racing Awards 2 years later. The dam of Merlin's Wish is by that brilliant stayer Le Moss out of a mare by Deep Run, the prolific sire of NH horses that included Cahervillahow, Morley Street, Run For Free, Waterloo Boy, Unguided Missile, Deep Sensation, Granville Again and Mole Board.

Given that he's won over 4 miles in heavy going and has won his last 2 races, the most recent easing down, could mean he has been given a chance by the handicapper. If I were on course and compelled to bet I would back this one just to have an interest in the race but those odds are ridiculously mean in a race like this.
 
Good to have you back stick- but doesnt mean I like your 1st one back <laugh>

Diamond Harry - 4/1

Is a great e/w bet to nothing- I cannot see him out the 1st 3- he is now running of his lower mark 17lbs less than when he won the Henessey- yes he is nothing like that form now- but showed a spark of revival when 4th in the XC lto (which is a very stupid but specialised race) He is crying out for this type of distance and same with the ground, he is a strong jumper If he can carry on with that spark of revival running anywhere near to his best he should take alot of beating
 
It would be nice to see him win again Wooly. My only reservation would be, if he's back to anywhere near his best, he wins; if not he'll probably be unplaced (maybe pulled up). Too risky for me at 4/1.
 
I like the top horse in the race!! Think it's a better renewal than last year, and those at top of weights are well treated too. Good race, about five will finish!!
 
Ron said:
It would be nice to see him win again Wooly. My only reservation would be, if he's back to anywhere near his best, he wins; if not he'll probably be unplaced (maybe pulled up). Too risky for me at 4/1.
Click to expand...

Thats it Ron, you know wit him if he is he wins! But that is a big word if! But I am confident enough in his last race or two that he is beginning to revive!
 
Evening all.

With Wooly on DIAMOND HARRY tomorrow I think he is a really good bet & fancy him to win well to be honest. Obviously easy enough to swerve and be against the horse but he showed he retains plenty of his ability in the x country race last time out. Travelled like the class act we all know he is for a very long way and even if fresh is the best time to catch him I think it is a weak race tomorrow tbh. He is seriously well handicapped off 132 and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win this by half the track.

Over at Meydan (3.40) I will be very surprised if EL ESTRUENDOSO (NAP) isn't far too good for this lot.
 
Morning, crew. Hope everyone on board is well. Nothing for me today though as it&#8217;s woeful once again. What about that card in the old Desert though. Cor blimey total prizemoney of over £518k. On these shores, in contrast though, runners scrape around for a handful of grand! Oh British racing what has become of thee.

Meanwhile, in the UK can anyone tell me of a half decent race run in January or February that isn&#8217;t on either a Saturday or a Bank Holiday?!? Race planning seems to rule that in our first 2 months quality contests can only take place on either of these.

Good luck though if you do decide to wager.
 
Nice to see you back stick ;)
You have far more knowledge than me but I do like the look of the fav MERLINS WISH won over the ground and distance and also further so I shall be doing a rfc as a saver also
GL if anyone follows ;)
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Morning, crew. Hope everyone on board is well. Nothing for me today though as it&#8217;s woeful once again. What about that card in the old Desert though. Cor blimey total prizemoney of over £518k. On these shores, in contrast though, runners scrape around for a handful of grand! Oh British racing what has become of thee.

Meanwhile, in the UK can anyone tell me of a half decent race run in January or February that isn&#8217;t on either a Saturday or a Bank Holiday?!? Race planning seems to rule that in our first 2 months quality contests can only take place on either of these.

Good luck though if you do decide to wager.
Click to expand...



Check out the mares novice race at Plumpton on Monday then Barney. A seriously nice race in the Mares programme especially for this track and on a Monday. I am sure you will have an opinion when you have had a look at it!
 
Cor blimey, and I do mean cor blimey, Stick, you&#8217;re sending the old girl for her first race over timber! What&#8217;s the inside word?!?

I see that Mr Henderson could go as much as double handed against you. Fabrika&#8217;s always looked to have a lot of potential whilst the other mare is owned by old boy Henry Ponsonby.

Could, if she runs, the most difficult opponent be Flementine though??? She has been being entered in Listed contests recently.
 
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