Daily Thread Thursday 24th October

[stick]

A small insight into the chances of the forums favourite trainers runners tomorrow.

LONG WAVE 1.30 Southwell is partnered by Richard Johnson while Noel Fehily takes a stewards enduced break. He is interesting runner in a novice chase as although he hasn’t jumped under rules he is a point to point winner. He came on leaps and bounds during the summer having had a successful wind operation and that campaign was really just to have him ready to go novice chasing. With the form the yard are in they will a bit disappointed if he doesnt win this.

PENDRA 2.20 Carlisle is very much the star attraction at Hull Farm. I was at the yard the day he arrived back from his summer break at JP’s stud in Ireland. You can see his class just by looking at him and he seems to know he is pretty special. He had a cracking season as a novice hurdler with his only defeats being when bumping into MELODIC RENDEZVOUS and a disappointing effort when sent off as favourite for the Coral Cup. I don’t think he was given the greatest of rides at Cheltenham and it is definitely forgiveable for a novice to run below par in such a hurly burly race.
He has always been a chaser in the making and tomorrow he starts out on this new path. There are no plans for where he might go this season which is to be expected given his ownership. That said I think Mr Longsdon will be very disappointed if he is not taking him back to Cheltenham in March. The only slight negative about tomorrows race is the distance as he is definitely suited by a trip. Carlisle is a stiffish track though so I wont be making any excuses if the unthinkable happens and he doesn’t win!

INVESTISSEMENT 4.05 Southwell was bought out of the David Pipe yard to have a campaign summer hurdling. He kept pretty decent company when running for the West Country handler and his new handler has lowered his sights. His handicap mark has never really tumbled for a horse on a long losing streak and as he has never really transferred his useful flat form to hurdles he seems pretty hard to place especially as he is almost definitely a top of the ground horse.

 

[gazboy]

Stick, done your 3 today! Investissement last time out was a never nearer 4th at the finish but plugged on encouragingly! 9/4, 10/11 and 7/2 seem reasonable prices based on your write ups and I expect 2 from 3 at least!!!

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Morning, pilgrims. Hope everyone well.

Stick, I don’t know if you saw, or have got an views on, the short piece by Alastair Whitehouse-Jones in yesterday’s ‘Weekender’. He basically said that punters should for the immediate future be very wary of backing any of Charlie Longsdon’s horses. This isn’t because he views him as being a bad trainer or he thinks he has got bad beasts but because right now they are being massively overbet by punters and starting at silly prices as a result. Value wise therefore he thinks they are, in the main at the minute, very poor. He gave a few examples (sorry I can’t remember which as the paper is at home) and concluded that now that the better NH horses are starting to emerge Charlie’s strike rate can also only go one way.

I see that currently the Lieutenant is out of the handicap in the ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ on Sunday and will remain so if the top weight stands his ground (Burton Port who has been transferred from Mr Henderson’s to Jonjo O’Neill. Cor blimey to use a footballing analogy that must be like going from The Arsenal to Chippenham Town!). If the Lieutenant does run I don’t, for one moment, think it will be merely a case of him being eased into 8th and therefore qualifying as a result as (i) Mr Henderson always plays a ‘straight bat’ and is the most honest gentleman in our sport, and (ii) the horse would need a substantial ratings increase to make the final and you only get this by wide margins wins.

Finally, well I’m on anyone see Sudden Wonder’s facile win at Newmarket yesterday. In my view Very Impressive with a capital ‘V’ and a capital ‘I’. It could be argued that he beat trees (although I don’t think the opposition was that bad) but the manner of his success was scintillating. Only once or twice a term do you see an animal travel and then quicken like Sudden Wonder did yesterday. Ladbrokes go 20/1 for the 2014 Derby.

Good luck to those punting today.

 

[Dexter]

Morning, pilgrims. Hope everyone well.

Stick, I don’t know if you saw, or have got an views on, the short piece by Alastair Whitehouse-Jones in yesterday’s ‘Weekender’. He basically said that punters should for the immediate future be very wary of backing any of Charlie Longsdon’s horses. This isn’t because he views him as being a bad trainer or he thinks he has got bad beasts but because right now they are being massively overbet by punters and starting at silly prices as a result. Value wise therefore he thinks they are, in the main at the minute, very poor. He gave a few examples (sorry I can’t remember which as the paper is at home) and concluded that now that the better NH horses are starting to emerge Charlie’s strike rate can also only go one way.

I see that currently the Lieutenant is out of the handicap in the ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ on Sunday and will remain so if the top weight stands his ground (Burton Port who has been transferred from Mr Henderson’s to Jonjo O’Neill. Cor blimey to use a footballing analogy that must be like going from The Arsenal to Chippenham Town!). If the Lieutenant does run I don’t, for one moment, think it will be merely a case of him being eased into 8th and therefore qualifying as a result as (i) Mr Henderson always plays a ‘straight bat’ and is the most honest gentleman in our sport, and (ii) the horse would need a substantial ratings increase to make the final and you only get this by wide margins wins.

Finally, well I’m on anyone see Sudden Wonder’s facile win at Newmarket yesterday. In my view Very Impressive with a capital ‘V’ and a capital ‘I’. It could be argued that he beat trees (although I don’t think the opposition was that bad) but the manner of his success was scintillating. Only once or twice a term do you see an animal travel and then quicken like Sudden Wonder did yesterday. Ladbrokes go 20/1 for the 2014 Derby.

Good luck to those punting today.

Did you notice Dessy Hughes bringing over Rare Bob for the first Pertemps Qualifier at HQ last Friday and seeing him finish a tenderly ridden 7th.

Job well and truely done.

I expect he will be Grand National bound,after a decent run in 5th last season,and could well be aimed at the Pertemps final in March after having a few runs over the big 'uns after the Aintree weights are announced at the end of January.

I expect him to be campaigned over timber/plastic until then trying to a achieve a decent hurdles mark.

Not in any way insinuating that Mr Hughes doesn't play with a straight bat btw...just a bit more toward mid off than Mr Henderson.

Off for a study.

GL all having a punt.

 

[stick]

I agree entirely Barney. Very little value on anything he runs now. Punters backing them blind.


I wasnt ripping all three today though. Just doing a write up on each of his runners. I think the first two will win but not inestissement. Sorry for any confusion.

 

[pbew]

I agree entirely Barney. Very little value on anything he runs now. Punters backing them blind.


I wasnt ripping all three today though. Just doing a write up on each of his runners. I think the first two will win but not inestissement. Sorry for any confusion.

I've obviously put up at the start of the week that all Longsdon horses need to be backed this week so this is having an impact now with everyone lumping on. Remember, any winners today and you heard it from me first.

 

[You See]

Afternoon all I have been pondering over 2 that look way too high both in the same race both should be race ready one at 20s+ the other 9s available both can do the conditions and distance in good times the 20 shot probrably better than the field and aptly named overpriced but jockey mulqueen puts me off slightly even though 20s is massive the other the one I will be siding with has good times to distance good value odds but one thing I really find as a massive positive is a half decent jockey horse combination these have a massive 50% win rate together all around this distance England has took COVERHOLDER 8 times and landed 4 times coverholder is 8s for the step up in class but with most of these not raced for 200 days if they are to step up today is the best chance they will get
Good luck all

 

[redcgull]

Good afty all... Got one out of my tracker today, though i am not 100% sure why i put him in the 1st place...

Southwell 5.10 - Honour A Promise, currently 12/1...

Trainer Paul Webber has hit a couple of winners this week already and this is his only runner today at Southwell. Didnt run with much promise lto in Ayr, but something made me put him in my tracker, so apologies for that but he has a chance in what looks an open Flat Race...


I also like Molko Jack in the 2.30... Good luck if your having a play...

 

[You See]

I've obviously put up at the start of the week that all Longsdon horses need to be backed this week so this is having an impact now with everyone lumping on. Remember, any winners today and you heard it from me first.

Looks like your first longsdon tip didnt work sweet pea , have you any original ideas or is your head rammed that far up your rectum you cant read a card thanks for your pointless input you should have recieved the forum joker award for your somewhat useless banter

 

[Ste D]

I've obviously put up at the start of the week that all Longsdon horses need to be backed this week so this is having an impact now with everyone lumping on. Remember, any winners today and you heard it from me first.

numpty

 

[pbew]

BBOOOOOOMMMMMM. Pendra. Tipped up by me days ago. Yet another Longsdon horse. Hope you followed! Remember back all Longsdon horses this week as he will have some winners.

 

[redcgull]

A winner... Molko Jack...

Ive not had many of them recently...!!!!!!!

 

[Bucks]

Afternoon all, backed a couple today:

Carlisle 3.25 Abnaki 6/1
Carlisle 5.00 Presenting Junior 4/1

Singles and a e/w double

 

[Bucks]

Well done Red



Pendra looked good, Eduardo was going well until slipping though as well, would of been close had he not slipped. Nice prospect that Pendra though Stick

 

[Bostonbob]

Well done Stick

 

[Harbottle]

I'd had a speculative pound e/w on Jet Master @ 50/1 in Pendra's race, in the hope he might get round and nick a place, and was actually beginning to get rather excited as he'd jumped soundly and was travelling nicely .. until he unseated 2 out out!

 

[redcgull]

Deep Trouble next...

No bet though...

 

[You See]

Shout red and stick

 

[You See]

BBOOOOOOMMMMMM. Pendra. Tipped up by me days ago. Yet another Longsdon horse. Hope you followed! Remember back all Longsdon horses this week as he will have some winners.

Your running at a lose today though sweet pea

 

[You See]

Afternoon all I have been pondering over 2 that look way too high both in the same race both should be race ready one at 20s+ the other 9s available both can do the conditions and distance in good times the 20 shot probrably better than the field and aptly named overpriced but jockey mulqueen puts me off slightly even though 20s is massive the other the one I will be siding with has good times to distance good value odds but one thing I really find as a massive positive is a half decent jockey horse combination these have a massive 50% win rate together all around this distance England has took COVERHOLDER 8 times and landed 4 times coverholder is 8s for the step up in class but with most of these not raced for 200 days if they are to step up today is the best chance they will get
Good luck all

BOOOOOOM 2nd at them odds is fine by me get in there