Daily Thread Friday 18th October

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
28,681
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Berlin, Germany
Racing on Friday comes from Cheltenham (hooray!!), Haydock, Redcar, Wolverhampton, Downpatrick and Dundalk.

First meeting of the season at Cheltenham and some intriguing races - no doubt plents of views on these to come <ok>

2.10 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle - 6 runners declared at the overnight stage and you really couldn't rule out any of the 6. The top 4 all carry a penalty for previous hurdle wins but the quartet already set a pretty formidable standard, with Rum And Butter top on official ratings on 145. His second behind Kangaroo Court (to whom he was conceding 12lbs) has been well and truly franked by Emma Lavelle's charge going on to score again of an 11lbs higher mark. The top 4 have all been pretty busy over the summer and have gained vital experience but it is the bottom two who catch my eye, especially with a view to the season ahead. Cloud Brook took a P2P in Ireland before hacking up in a bumper at Bangor whilst Pure Science ran in 2 absolutely top class bumpers at Newbury and the Festival before probably finding Ayr one run too many at the back end of last season. He looks to be the one horse in the race who could have the scope to be very, very good and he looks to hold a great chance at the weights here.

2.40 Cheltenham Annual Members Novices Chase - just the 3 go to post but this is definitely quality over quantity. Rebel Fitz sets the standard having already won 5 times over the larger obstacles including a Grade 3 last time. Third Intention ran some good races last season and showed that he is a very good yardstick and probably a Grade 3 / Grade 2 horse on his day. But the one I am really looking forward to seeing is Jonjo's Taquin De Seuil. The French-bred gelding ran some fine races over hurdles last season and took an admittedly weak Challow in fine style before finding The New One et al too much at the Festival. But this lad was always going to be a chaser and for me he is one of the most exciting novice chase prospects of the season. The early price of 9/4 against Rebel Fitz 10/11 makes plenty of appeal.

3.15 Pertemps Qualifier - as usual more plots than an Agatha Christie novel (TM Sir Barney Chuckles, reproduced here with kind permission) but I am quite tempted by an each way punt on Restless Harry at 25/1. Robin Dickin's charge goes really well fresh (for example when taking the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle on seasonal debut 2 years ago) but the spectre of Big Buck's forced connections hand and they went novice chasing with him last season, which didn't really work. He gets in here off 132 which looks mighty generous and I think they will actually be trying to win this tomorrow and then decide where to go from there.

3.50 Ryman Stationary Cheltenham Business Club Novices Chase - I really like Alan King's Pantxoa for this - looks progressive, will love every yard of the trip and could turn out to be one of the top staying novice chasers this season.

Apart from that, Calling Germany will be well fancied in the maiden hurdle at 4.25 (but stick might have more to tell us on his chances) and the last 2 I will swerve with the amateurs and conditionals in the plate.

I'll be having a small e/w on Restless Harry and a win trixie on Pure Science, Taquin De Seuil and Pantxoa.

Best of luck everyone <ok>
 
Glad you started the thread, I like one at wolvers tomo, but couldn't start the thread with that!!
20:30 W - No win no fee 8/1. Friday could be the day for this one. No form to suggest this could win but runs over 7f after being campaigned over middle distances and i always like to see a horse cut as soon as the prices come out.
 
Two main selections and a little each way at Cheltenham tomorrow. It's a real sad indictment that the richest Novice Chase so far this season only has three participants or maybe Rebel Fitz has just scared them off.

PURE SCIENCE 2.10 7-2 mixed it with the best in bumpers last season and acquitted himself quite well. He has been looking for a stamina test and gets it tomorrow. The yard had a couple declared and have picked this one in a race they won with last years best novice. I am taking the hint and it looks like many others are too.

They dawdled along in his Worcester bumper and for a horse bred to get three miles that really didn't suit GERMANY CALLING 4.25. Tomorrow they will go a good clip and his stamina will come to the fore. He is very well regarded by a yard that is in the rudest health. The tissue 3-1 would hardly be generous but its understandable given the yards current strike rate.

My sneaky each way fancy is for Oscar Davy 11-1 5.00. His entry level into handicaps was too high but he starts this season on a fair mark and I think he can improve with another summer on his back. Small stakes only!
 
nass do you remember a horse you said to follow, was in a nhf ridden by mccoy i think. you said it could pull a cart and to wate for it to go jumping. just cant remember what it was called
 
I think Barzalona will take the 14.20 Haydock. Just my Personal Opinion

and Tall Ship in the 16.05
 
hawkeye said:
nass do you remember a horse you said to follow, was in a nhf ridden by mccoy i think. you said it could pull a cart and to wate for it to go jumping. just cant remember what it was called
Click to expand...

Not quite sure, will have a think about it.
 
Shame you can't make it Oddy, it's one of my favourite days outside the festival. Loads of intrigue and it's easy to get a pint too!
 
I notice a forum favourite out again tomorrow BPG at his favourite track Redcar. the ground may be on the soft side for him but would be interested in Heis's view of his chances.
 
Evening all, Cant believe cheltenham is back upon us! just had a quick look at the card- one I do like at a big price

17.30 Cheltenham - Anay Turge- 12/1

Had a cracking season last one, wining hurdle and chases from 2m - 2m2f on varying ground, he had a very good strike rate including when winning a 2m chase over this course then had a very good run when second to Dineur at Aintree again over 2m. Wont mind the ground and at this price I dont mind taking him at a nice e/w price
 
14.10 Cheltenham- Clondaw Daft- 13/2

Am going agaisnt you in this one oddy! Only bit of doubt in my mind is he has been quite busy, but that can also be a positive with the experience gained. He won on only the second time of asking when going off on fairly short odds but won convincing enough. His jumping has really impressed me as of late and seems to be the biggest improver in the race and am willing to take a chance at these odds

17.40 Haydock- Man Of Plenty- 5/1

Has bounced back from a slightly disappointing Ripon performance (sixth) by winning and getting placed efforts at Musselburgh and Ascot respectively and, with a Ryan Moore taking over, he looks the one to beat
 
Thank god jumps are back, made so much money last season before a pretty a crap flat season. Back to winning ways hopefully! Ill be taking Pure Science as Oddy and stick have pointed out. I will also be backing PANTXOA in the 3.50 3/1. Been really impressed with this one so far this season and don't see why it can't win again. Maybe a reverse forcast with According to Trev because they both have form line through Brassick.

Good luck
 
SMP said:
Thank god jumps are back, made so much money last season before a pretty a crap flat season. Back to winning ways hopefully! Ill be taking Pure Science as Oddy and stick have pointed out. I will also be backing PANTXOA in the 3.50 3/1. Been really impressed with this one so far this season and don't see why it can't win again. Maybe a reverse forcast with According to Trev because they both have form line through Brassick.

Good luck
Click to expand...

Am on According To Trev, like him alot- big scopey horse who the yard thinks alot of! altho the form of his wins dont show alot I fully expect him to be alot better than he has had to show and fancy him to take on the King (and everyone elses pick tomorow) <laugh>
 
Wolverhampton
6.25 Exceeder 5-1
I really fancy this horse and feel tomorrow will it's day and believe 5-1 more than generous as it's likely go off half that. At this price a strong bet that can be taken full advantage of.
 
Crikey, couldn't believe it when I read there was a Cheltenham meeting today...7 months since the last festival!

Not a hugely exciting day of stars but I think there is a LAY opportunity in the shape of REBEL FITZ, who at 10/11 looks one to take on.

He has come into the last two jump seasons on the back of good summer form handing out beatings to a few trees and a couple of boats, overhyped and underpriced.

THIRD INTENTION began to develop into a smart chaser last year and the Tizzards usually start fairly quickly. He will be a tough nut to crack. TAQUIN DU SEUIL will potentially be smart but Jonjo horses invariably need time. However, he was smart last year and if there is enough juice in the ground he might be very good today. Two good opponents for Rebel Fitz.
 
Third Intention is a massive danger at the weights according to the book, but ive had a good bet on Rebel Fitz at evens. He has beaten nothing in Ireland recently but he has been doing it very easily and his hurdles form proves he is high class. He is the type who could take his chase form to another level in better company.

Gerraghty against Tizzard, lay at your peril.
 
Onlyfoolsandhorses said:
I notice a forum favourite out again tomorrow BPG at his favourite track Redcar. the ground may be on the soft side for him but would be interested in Heis's view of his chances.
Click to expand...

not heard anything as yet, BPG wont be suited by ground and needed the run last time, but there was a vibe for Waltz DARLING
 
Hello lads.

Some decent action on all fronts today.

I had planned to go to Downpatrick today but it is absolutely chucking it down here 20 miles away.

I notice ATR still reported the ground as gd/fm 10 minutes ago..thats simply because no one is brave enough to go with his pointy stick in this weather...look for some heavy ground beasts if the meeting actually survives!

GL all.

Off for a perusal.
 
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