Rare daily thread starter for me but before I forget High Resolution at 12/1. Will add reasoning later; dinner has arrived
Ayr 16.40 High Resolution 12/1. This horse is on a long losing run (13 I think). The last time he won was on this course on heavy going and that was when carrying a stone more than tomorrow. The jockey is a 7lb claimer who has ridden the horse in public just once before when carrying 9.7 and beaten 9l into 6th behind Hot Rod Mamma (that's a lot of dead weight). LTO showed some return to form in apprentice event over course and distance carrying 9.4 (18lbs more than tomorrow) on good ground. Very interesting that the trainer has got this into a Class 3 event worth nearly £10k to the winner when he has never won above Class 5 and hasn't run above Class 4 for a year; but I guess that's how she gets him in on 8.00 and with 7lb off with the claimer, that's up to 2 stone 5lb less than he's been lumping around and 20lb less that he carried lto over course and distance. Surely the trainer can't get his weight down any further so it seems like it's now or never. At 12/1 must be worth a dabble ew with the hope of a win. The favourite has won 5 times this year, all on a sound surface. The last time he won on a soft surface was at this course (heavy) a year ago carrying 14lb less, in a Class 5. I think, although a claimer takes 5lb off, the rise in weights, combined with the softer ground will make it very difficult for him to make this a 4 timer.
I don't know what Miss Perratt is up to but, as well as High Resolution, she also runs Silver Rime in the same race. And she has bagged the rising star Oisin Murphy (5) to ride this one and he has a 100% record from 4 rides at Ayr. Maybe a tiny saver is in order at 7/1 (just to cover the stake).
each way lucky 15 for tomorrow Ayr 3.10 - MY BOY BILL 14/1 Ayr 3.40 - KHEFHYN 12/1 Exeter 3.20 - BISHOPHILL JACK 6/1 Worcester 5.30 - BOMBADERO ( Bobs ). 11/2 Gazman
OUR KAEMPFER 3.30 Worcester is a full brother to Donald McCains Clondaw Kaempfer and is highly regarded by the yard. Very leggy individual and has been given plenty of time to fill his frame. He can win tomorrow but if he doesn't he is certainly one to follow. DAWN COMMANDER 3.50 Exeter should be at home at this track and whilst he is definitely well handicapped he is also very experienced to be running in a beginners chase. I think he should be favourite not the other one. Very interesting that Jason Maguire takes the ride whilst the stable jockey and both conditionals are off to Worcester. Seems Mr Longsdon wants a strong pair of hands for him! I am surprised to see COURT APPEAL 4.30 Worcester out tomorrow as I believed he wouldn't be seen until the New Year and he was waiting for softer ground. He is a very exciting youngster having won his bumper on the bridle last season. Another big day for the yard in form expected.
Done Tom queally's 2 rides at Ayr - very rare he goes that far north when he could be riding at Kempton - I feel sorry for the guy and Moore / Buick for being jocked off the Abdulla horses as Doyle I do not rate as one of the top jocks around and he hasn't exactly made a wonderful start on the Abdulla horses has he ?!
2.40 Ayr Compton Heights 4/1 Jim Godlie's 4 year old Compton Heights scored on the 12th time of asking when running out a comfortable winner last week over C+D in this better race that this and I think there will be a lot more to come from this late developing type. A very big horse who has clearly taken time to grow into his frame, Compton Heights had been shaping recently that his time was near and after 3 encouraging displays everything seemed to click for him 9 days ago as he travelled very well before winning comfortably by a 1.25L under Graham Lee and I think he has an outstanding chance of following up today under a 6lb penalty. From a family Jim Goldie knows very well, Compton Heights' has two full brothers were also trained by Goldie in the shape of Blazing Heights and Geojimali and given that both reached marks in the 80s at their peaks it certainly bodes well for the potential of Compton Heights who races here off a mark of 65. Looking closely at Geojimali, a very similar trend to that of Compton Heights seems to appear as it took him 9 starts to get off the mark to finally get off the mark as 4 year old at the basement level and having done so he progressed to finish the year rated 81 and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Compton Heights follows a similar pattern. Although unproven on soft ground, both his brothers handled cut just fine and given the size of him he may relish it as he returns to the scene of his Maiden victory as Graham Lee resumes the partnership today. In this 16 runner field, I am very sightly concerned that he's drawn in 1 on the far side which was the wrong part of the track during the Ayr Gold Cup Festival in testing conditions and if that is the case I guess we are just out of luck. Dropped back to a 0-65 race, I think Compton Heights has a lot of improvement left in him and hopefully he can land this contest before going on a surge that sees him win plenty of races as I am sure he still isn't physically the finished article just yet. 2.30 Worcester Bertie's Desire 8/1 I think Oliver Sherwood's 5 year old Bertie's Desire is a very interesting runner today as he makes his chasing debut in a handicap having gotten his mark from in 3 Novice/Maiden hurdles and off a low mark of 96 I'm hoping he can score over the larger obstacles on his 5th career start. A full brother to Philip Hobbs very decent Princely Player who was last seen winning a handicap hurdle off a mark of 130, Bertie's Desire has definitely shaped well on a few occasions and the fact Oliver Sherwood sends him straight into a handicap chase rather than run him in a Novice chase certainly suggests he's on a mark the trainer thinks he can score off. Having bombed out in a bumper when sent off a 7/2 shot on debut at Ffos Las in April last year, Bertie's Desire certainly shaped a fair bit better on his hurdling debut last November at Fontwell over 20f (very weak in the market) when travelling stylishly for a long way before finishing very tamely under a tender ride as he looked like a very tired horse. There was definitely promise on Bertie's Desire's 2nd start over hurdles when again running well for a long way before not finishing off his race in a race that looks quite strong at Kempton back in April over 2m and on that showing I think his mark of 96 would be workable over hurdles (I think he'll make a much better chaser). On the back of that very decent run, Bertie's Desire was sent off a 3/1 shot on his final start in a Maiden hurdle at Southwell and after an early blunder he was never really at the races and finished a well beaten and disappointing 5th. Although he never really finished off his races (if it was a breathing problem and he's had an op he could be completely transformed), I was largely impressed with his jumping throughout and he very much strikes me as the sort of horse who will excel over the larger obstacles. Additionally, I saw him jump a couple of fences on Oliver Sherwood's website and was impressed at how at home he seemed jumping them. Coming here on the back of a 149 day absence, I'd be quite surprised if he doesn't come her fit enough to do himself justice and I'm very much expecting a bold show from him today at a track where Sherwood has a 23% strike rate. In this Conditional Jockeys handicap hurdle, I am delighted to see the excellent Thomas Garner booked and the extra 3lb he can take off Bertie's Desire's back is a big bonus of 10-13. Although Oliver Sherwood is without a winner since June (only 5 runners), his National Hunt team will only be starting to emerge at the moment and I think its incredibly shrewd that his first start over fences comes in a handicap. If jumping well and finishing off his race better, I think Bertie's Desire has a superb chance of landing this off a mark of 96 and hopefully he can gain his 1st success on his 5th career start before going onto bigger and better things.
Morning, pinstickers. Nothing for me today but I am keenly awaiting the draw for the old Cesarewitch which takes place later this morn. I’m sure some are reading this and saying, ‘That Chuckles fellow has finally gone mad. Concentrating on the bally draw in an 18 furlong contest!’, but as those racing purists (remember them?!?) all know the ‘Ces’ is actually one of the most draw dependent heats in the calendar. It usually has a maximum field of 36 and in 7 out of the last 10 runnings the winner has been berthed 12 or less whilst last term the first 3 home emerged from stalls 1, 7 and 3. Hopefully, Mr Henderson’s Lieutenant Miller gets berthed low then, say I. However, I am slightly worried as those in authority have a biased agenda against the forum’s favourite trainer – as they dislike greatness (they also, of course, unfairly pursued an innocent man in ‘King’ Kieren) and feel inadequate in his presence. I fear his 2 runners could get very high draws as a result but let’s hope for once for justice in horse racing! The draw should be televised, in my view, as cor blimey even that Blatter chap allows that in his sphere! Talking of the ‘King’ he has been rerouted to York on Saturday so old boy Rickie Hughes will be given the leg up on Earth Amber. There is though no dislodging dear old Ryan from the Lieutenant! Good luck, all. Especially the Lieutenant in getting a very low berthing!
With old boy Peter Higgs winning the Nobel Prize this week, what better way to celebrate that having a nice e/w flutter on Hadron Collider in the 4.00 at Worcester? This French-Bred son of Dubai Destination has tumbled down the weights since leaving Charlie Mann's yard for Chris Nenadich and goes today off a paltry 79. 25/1 is the current quote of those bookie-chappies and wouldn't it be ironic if he were to get his head in front in this of all weeks? Best of luck to those venturing a wager.
BTW, I wouldn't normally call 8/11 value but surely New Years Eve should be more like a 1/5 shot today?
Oddy, if someone held a gun to my head, although I’m sure no-one would want to do that, then I’d say New Year’s Eve would oblige today. I guess he’s the price he is today, which I think is about right, (i) beacuse he was beaten in 2 similar heats in August and (ii) there has to be some uncertainty as to the merits of Alphabetical Order on his hurdling bow – a dual bumper winner and who last ran in a Grade 2 heat.
Seems like a very unlucky horse to me but have added him in to some of my multiples today along with HENDERSON runner in the last worsc MAKARI
............ where he was just touched off by 112 lengths Alphabetical Order is also by Alflora, whose progeny tend to like plenty of juice (his 2 bumper wins came on soft and heavy) so I am highly sceptical of his chances on the prevailing Gd/Fm going today. If Shergar were around he'd be shoo-ing it in
I made Alphabetical Order sound good until you added that bit about him finishing last! Very sad by the way that the winner of that Aintree Grade 2 Bumper (Em Lavelle’s Killyglass) tragically lost his life on his hurdling bow, last month. Must have been a devastating loss to connections.
Jonjo's Calypso Bay t'other day as well Sir Barney - been a good servant to the yard and sadly broke down whilst leading at Uttoxeter on Sunday. I don't think it was even reported anywhere - very sad.
After saying we would see more of Bob's Worth this season it looks like connections have reverted back to wrapping him in Cotton Wool. Sporting Life reports here that his likely programme will be the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, followed by the Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January and then the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Hardly running the legs off him are they? As he goes left handed, why not send him over to Ireland for the Lexus or Irish Hennessy?
Lieutenant Miller drawn 32. Ter-rif-ic..not! And old boy Ponsonby has had no luck with his other runner either – Tiger Cliff berthed in 30. As a result of this atrocious draw the Lieutenant has drifted from 10’s out to 14/1. Where there was hope, people, there is now despair, I’m afraid. At least Mr Henderson’s other runner (Earth Amber) has faired considerably better getting stall 5.
